The role of task complexity in valuation errors analysis in a developing real estate market

The real estate valuation literature on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) shows a growing concern over valuation errors, especially wide variation in valuations. Although there have been increased business and investment activities in the last decade or more in the region, these valuation errors pose a challenge to the maturity of SSA real estate markets as valuations promote transparency and support efficient operation of property markets. Based on archival and survey data, as well as insights from the task complexity discourse, this study examines the extent of variations in valuations and the effect of complex valuation tasks on the levels of the variations in Ghana. The study finds high levels of variations in valuation opinions of 33.6–63% for the archival and survey data, respectively. These levels of variations are substantially higher than have been reported in the literature for advanced markets suggesting that the concerns of valuation errors in SSA may be well grounded. Consistent with theory, it is further established that variations in valuation opinions may be more pronounced in comparatively more complex assignments. These findings have several implications including possible loss of confidence of market players in valuations, heightening of market uncertainty and increase in transaction costs

The valuation tool user guide: monetizing Cradle to Cradle®

This User Guide outlines the object, scope and expected deliverables from the Valuation Tool component of the Cradle to Cradle ® C2C BIZZ project. It describes the compendium of subtools that have been developed comprising: i) overview of funding tools; ii) C2C investment appraisal tool; and iii) C2C value indexing tool. The underpinning methodologies, as well as their inherent strengths and limitations are also described. The C2C BIZZ project as a whole aims specifically to promote and enhance the implementation of C2C methods in business site development within North Western Europe (NWE) (PAD, p.14). It is intended to infuse C2C notions into conventional site development, restructuring and management. The primary focus of the project is on planning, building and managing of business sites with C2C credentials (PAD, p.18) using sites in Lille Metropole (La Lainiere), London (London Sustainable Industries Park) and Luxemburg (Ecoparc Windhof) as experimental fields. C2C BIZZ is not concerned with the internal operations and activities of occupiers or users of the developed site. Accordingly, the scope of the valuation tool is confined to the planning, building and management of C2C sites. The deliverable from this component is a compendium of subtools (see Figure 1 below) that may be used to analyse the financial performance of C2C credentials in business sites to aid the making of a business case for such developments and evaluating the financial incentives for particular C2C site development projects. This entire work is premised on the argument that the wider adoption of C2C principles within the built environment depends on the rate of uptake by the private sector. The private sector, being profit driven, are likely to engage in C2C site development if they are convinced of its capacity to contribute to their business goals which ultimately is a return on their investment. The tool development described in this document attempts to provide a framework for collating an evidence base that can assist in articulating the business case for C2C in business site developments

Enhancing procurement quality performance in a developing country: the roles of procurement audit and top management commitment

Despite its strategic importance, procurement quality performance remains not only a difficult-to-improve public procurement outcome in developing countries but also knowledge of its determinants is underdeveloped. This research uses a contingent-agency perspective to propose procurement audit as a procurement quality performance-enhancer, especially when there is a strong top management commitment to strategic procurement issues. Survey data from 223 public sector organizations in Ghana support these propositions. Additional results, however, reveal that internal and external aspects of procurement audit relate differently to self-reported procurement quality performance under differing conditions of top management commitment. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are presented

Census politics in deeply divided societies

Population censuses in societies that are deeply divided along ethnic, religious or linguistic lines can be sensitive affairs – particularly where political settlements seek to maintain peace through the proportional sharing of power between groups. This brief sets out some key findings from a research project investigating the relationship between census politics and the design of political institutions in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kenya, Lebanon and Northern Ireland

Catheter-based autologous bone marrow myocardial injection in no-option patients with advanced coronary artery disease A feasibility study

AbstractObjectivesWe conducted a pilot study to evaluate the feasibility of transendocardial delivery of autologous bone marrow (ABM) strategy in patients with severe symptomatic chronic myocardial ischemia not amenable to conventional revascularization.BackgroundTransendocardial injection of ABM cells appears to enhance perfusion of ischemic porcine myocardium.MethodsTen patients underwent transendocardial injection of freshly aspirated and filtered unfractionated ABM using left ventricular electromechanical guidance. Twelve injections of 0.2 ml each were successfully delivered into ischemic noninfarcted myocardium pre-identified by single-photon emission computed tomography perfusion imaging.ResultsAutologous bone marrow injection was successful in all patients and was associated with no serious adverse effects; in particular, there was no arrhythmia, evidence of infection, myocardial inflammation, or increased scar formation. Two patients were readmitted for recurrent chest pain. At three months, Canadian Cardiovascular Society angina score significantly improved (3.1 ± 0.3 vs. 2.0 ± 0.94, p = 0.001), as well as stress-induced ischemia occurring within the injected territories (2.1 ± 0.8 vs. 1.6 ± 0.8, p < 0.001). Treadmill exercise duration, available in nine patients, increased, but the change was not significant (391 ± 155 vs. 485 ± 198, p = 0.11).ConclusionsThis study provides preliminary clinical data indicating feasibility of catheter-based transendocardial delivery of ABM to ischemic myocardium

Gendered perceptions and adaptation practices of smallholder cocoa farmers to climate variability in the Central Region of Ghana

Understanding gendered adaptation practices among smallholder cocoa farmers is crucial to ensuring sustainable cocoa production in Ghana. This study examined the gendered perceptions and adaptation practices of smallholder cocoa farmers to climate variability in three selected communities (Breman Ayipey, Breman Baako and Breman Kuntanase) in the Asikuma-Odoben-Brakwa District of the Central Region, Ghana. The study adopted a mixed-methods approach including household surveys and focus group discussions with 10 participants in each community. Mann-Kendall trend test was used to determine the rainfall and temperature changes in the study district from 2000 to 2015. Results indicated that there was no significant difference between male and female farmers’ perceptions of climate variability (p > 0.05). Both male and female farmers perceived an increasing temperature, rainfall, windstorms and flooding for the past 15 years. The Mann-Kendall trend test showed that annual rainfall and temperature had increased over the study period although the trends were not statistically significant (p > 0.05). Both male and female farmers had resorted to the use of different adaptation practices to reduce the threats of climate variability. There was a substantial difference between adaptation practices used by male and female farmers such as changing planting dates, use of drought tolerant hybrids, shade management, livestock rearing and income from sale of properties (p < 0.05). The study recommends policy formulations that incorporate gender perspectives into climate change adaptation practices among smallholder cocoa farmers in Ghana

Climate information services available to farming households in Northern Region, Ghana

Climate information services can build the resilience of African farmers to address the increasing threats associated with climate change. This study used household surveys with 200 farmers and focus group discussions to identify the types of climate information services available to farming households in two selected districts (Tolon and Nanton) in the Northern Region of Ghana. The study also identified the dissemination channels and the barriers faced by farmers in their access and use of climate information services for building climate resilience in Ghanaian farming systems. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the determinants of farmers’ access to climate information services. Results show that 70% of the surveyed farmers had access to varied forms of climate information services. The most prevalent meteorological variables accessible to them were rainfall, temperature, and windstorms in the form of daily and weekly weather forecasts, with only very limited availability and use of seasonal climate forecasts. Radio, television, and advice from extension agents were reported as the major dissemination channels by study respondents. A majority of the farmers reported lack of communication devices, mistrust in weather and climate forecasts, and lack of visual representations in the forecasts as major barriers to access and use of climate information services. The results highlight the importance of timely and reliable access to climate information services in enhancing farmers’ decision-making capacities and the need for training and recruitment of more extension agents to work with farmers on linking climate information services to targeted actions on crop and land management

Effect of climate variability on yields of selected staple food crops in northern Ghana

Agriculture in Ghana is vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate variability. This poses a challenge to food security across the country. Despite this vulnerability, limited research has been conducted to understand the effect of climate variability on the yields of staple food crops in Ghana. This study assessed the effect of climate variability on the yields of selected staple food crops (millet, sorghum, rice, groundnut and maize). The study used the Mann-Kendall trend test and multiple regression analysis to assess how climate variability (in annual rainfall, onset, cessation, number of dry days and temperature) has affected the yields of selected food crops in five districts in northern Ghana (Bole, Nanton, Tolon, Kassena Nankana East and Wa) over a 21-year period (1995–2016). Results suggested a marginal decrease in annual rainfall (p > 0.05) and a significant increase in temperature (p < 0.05) over the period of study in the districts. Variability in the onset, cessation, length of rainy days and number of dry days was statistically significant from year to year, and also across the districts (p < 0.05). Results indicated substantial variability in the yields of the selected staple food crops. Temperature, number of dry days, onset, annual rainfall and cessation explained about 43%, 32%, 30%, 25% and 14%, respectively of the variations in the yields of groundnut, sorghum, millet, maize and rice. Our results generally suggest that the changing climate substantially affects food production in the study districts, highlighting the need for adaptations including the use of agricultural diversification and the greater use of drought tolerant varieties of these staple crops, as well as the continuing investment in crop breeding programmes to enhance drought tolerance

Using traditional agroecological knowledge to adapt to climate change and variability in the Upper East Region of Ghana

Ghana's susceptibility to climate change is well documented and the agricultural sector which is the backbone of the country's economy is one of the most vulnerable sectors to the adverse effects of climate change. This study employed both quantitative and qualitative research methods including household surveys and focus group discussions to examine the extent to which traditional agroecological knowledge is used to manage climate change in three selected communities (Gia, Gaani and Nyangua) of the Kassena Nankana Municipality in the Upper East Region of Ghana. The study specifically answers the following research questions: (i) What is the extent of rainfall and temperature changes in the municipality from 1983–2017? (ii) What is the perception of farmers on rainfall and temperature changes in the selected communities for the past three decades? (iii) What are the key adaptation practices used by farmers to reduce the threats of climate change? (iv) What are the traditional agroecological indicators used by farmers to predict rainfall in the study communities? Mann-Kendall trend test was used to assess rainfall and temperature trends over the study period. Results from the trend analysis indicated an inconsistent pattern in rainfall and an increasing trend in temperature in the municipality. Results also showed that farmers perceived decreasing trend in rainfall as well as increasing temperature. Farmers’ perception of decreased trend in rainfall was inconsistent with the analysed rainfall data as the trend of rainfall was statistically insignificant (p > 0.05) and Sen's slope confirmed a positive slope indicating that amounts of rainfall had increased in the municipality. The farmers employed a variety of on-farm and off-farm practices including the use of traditional agroecological knowledge, use of improved varieties of crops and temporary migration to adapt to the impacts of climate change in the study communities. The farmers predicted rainfall onset using a variety of traditional agroecological indicators including direction of wind, croaking of frogs, appearance of cattle egret and flowering and fruiting of local trees. The study recommends the putting in place of a framework that blends traditional agroecological knowledge and scientific knowledge to develop effective climate change adaptation strategies

Exploring the need for developing impact-based forecasting in West Africa

While conventional weather forecasts focus on meteorological thresholds for extreme events, Impact-Based Forecasts (IBF) integrate information about the potential severity of weather impacts with their likelihood of occurrence. As IBF provides an indication of local risk, there is an increasing uptake of this approach globally. Despite the vulnerability of West Africa to severe weather, and the potential benefits of such a risk-based approach for informing disaster risk reduction, IBF remains rarely used in this region. To meet this need, three national workshops were held in Ghana, Nigeria and Senegal with forecasters, project researchers and users of Climate Information Services (CIS) from key sectors (e.g. agriculture, water resources, disaster risk reduction). In addition, a more localised district level workshop was held in Northern Ghana to explore needs at a subnational scale in Tamale District. The objectives of these workshops were to evaluate the current use of forecast products provided by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and to explore the potential for applying IBF. Findings indicate a recognition that the quality of forecast products provided by NMHSs in West Africa has substantially improved in recent years. However, challenges remain related to user understanding, clarity about forecast uncertainty, insufficient spatial and temporal resolution of forecasts leading to limited trust in forecasts. The workshops identified high demand for weather information related to storms, droughts and heatwaves in all the three countries. Dust storms were identified as having strong potential for IBF application in both Nigeria and Senegal. To increase the uptake of CIS by users in West Africa, NMHSs will need to develop and implement user-tailored IBF in their normal weather forecast approaches and improve communication channels with user communities. There is an urgent need for governments in West Africa to enhance the capacity of NMHSs to incorporate IBF as a routine forecast activity by first establishing a National Framework for Climate Services with user engagement as a key first pillar