Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration.

How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences

sj-pptx-2-spq-10.1177_01902725221109533 – Supplemental material for Can Customers Affect Racial Discrimination in Hiring?

Supplemental material, sj-pptx-2-spq-10.1177_01902725221109533 for Can Customers Affect Racial Discrimination in Hiring? by David S. Pedulla, Sophie Allen and Livia Baer-Bositis in Social Psychology Quarterly</p

sj-pdf-1-spq-10.1177_01902725221109533 – Supplemental material for Can Customers Affect Racial Discrimination in Hiring?

Supplemental material, sj-pdf-1-spq-10.1177_01902725221109533 for Can Customers Affect Racial Discrimination in Hiring? by David S. Pedulla, Sophie Allen and Livia Baer-Bositis in Social Psychology Quarterly</p