Combining Stochastic Optimization and Monte Carlo Simulation to Deal with Uncertainties in Climate Policy Assessment

In this paper, we explore the impact of several sources of uncertainties on the assessment of energy and climate policies when one uses in a harmonized way stochastic programming in a large-scale bottom-up (BU) model and Monte Carlo simulation in a large-scale top-down (TD) model. The BU model we use is the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model, which is run in a stochastic programming version to provide a hedging emission policy to cope with the uncertainty characterizing climate sensitivity. The TD model we use is the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3. Through Monte Carlo simulations of randomly generated uncertain parameter values, one provides a stochastic micro- and macro-economic analysis. Through statistical analysis of the simulation results, we analyse the impact of the uncertainties on the policy assessmen

Modeling Energy and Technology Choices in Smart Regional Energy Systems

This paper deals with the modeling of the long term evolution of regional energy systems in a smart city and smart grid environment. It is shown that demand response and distributed grid energy storage, driven by dynamic pricing schemes, based on locational marginal costs, can be represented in the linear programming framework of the models of the MARKAL/TIMES family. An implementation in the ETEM-SG modeling tool, which is an energy model tailored to the representation of regional energy systems is then described. An illustration is provided, based on energy scenarios concerning the Arc L ́emanique region in Switzerland. Finally the SESCOM modeling framework, which is under development in a project on smart energy systems for smart cities in Qatar is introduced. This modeling approach expands ETEM-SG to the representation of useful energy demands influenced by changes in life styles, smart transmission and interconnection between regions and market price revelation at distribution levels

Impact of uncertain CCS deployment on EU climate negotiations

In this paper we propose a stochastic non-cooperative meta-game approach to assess the role of uncertain CCS deployment on climate agreements among 28 European countries. The game model is identified through statistical emulation of a large set of numerical simulations performed with the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3. In this game the players are the 28 European countries, the payoffs are related to the welfare losses due to abatements and the strategies correspond to the supply of emission rights on the European carbon market. The paper then analyzes the potential contribution of the penetration of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies to European CO2 abatements and the impact of CCS uncertainty pertaining to the rate of penetration of CCS technologies and to their cost on the design of burden sharing agreements

Defining deep decarbonization pathways for Switzerland: an economic evaluation

This paper aims at simulating deep decarbonization pathways for Switzerland. The analysis relies on macro-economic simulations of GEMINI-E3, a computable general equilibrium model used to assess the energy and economic impacts of a Swiss low carbon society. The DDP scenarios assume a CO2 emissions target in 2050 of 1 ton per capita, following the Swiss climate target, which represents a 76% abatement with respect to 1990 levels. The paper discusses several options and scenarios compatible with this emissions target that appears to be quite challenging. The scenarios are compared to a reference scenario which assumes that Switzerland will reach a 20% reduction of CO2 emissions relative to 1990 levels, using instruments that have already been defined (e.g., building refurbishment program, regulation of CO2 emissions for new automobiles, CO2 tax on stationary fuels, Swiss emission trading scheme market, etc.)

Simulations of proposed deep decarbonization pathways. A contribution to Switzerland decarbonization pathways - technical appendix

This report aims at simulating deep decarbonization pathways for Switzerland. The analysis relies on macro-economic simulations of GEMINI-E3, a computable general equilibrium model used to assess the energy and economic impacts of a Swiss low carbon society. The DDP scenarios assume a CO2 emissions target in 2050 of 1 ton per capita, following the Swiss climate target, which represents a 76% abatement with respect to 1990 levels. The paper discusses several options and scenarios compatible with this emissions target that appears to be quite challenging. The scenarios are compared to a reference scenario which assumes that Switzerland will reach a 20% reduction of CO2 emissions relative to 1990 levels, using instruments that have already been defined (e.g., building refurbishment program, regulation of CO2 emissions for new automobiles, CO2 tax on stationary fuels, Swiss emission trading scheme market, etc.)

A systems approche to regional energy Modeling with smart grid integrated distributed energy resources

We provide an introduction to ETEM-SG, a robust linear programming approach specifically designed for regional energy systems analysis. This model can be used to provide prospective analyses of the long-term (30 years and more) evolution of multi-energy regional energy systems in their transition to sustainability. The model assumes that this transition will occur in a smart city environment. It takes into consideration the constraints associated with intermittent and volatile renewable energy sources connected at the transmission and distribution networks. It also takes into account the opportunity to optimize grid friendly flexible loads and distributed energy resources encountered in modern power systems. A case study of a European regional energy system shows how our approach can quantify the ability of flexible loads and distributed energy resources to facilitate and foster the penetration of variable renewable energy sources, like solar and wind

Vers une politique du climat réaliste et efficace : à la lumière de la théorie des jeux

La vingt-et-unième Conférence des Parties (COP21) à Paris, en novembre dernier, a débouché sur un accord qui s’appuie en partie sur une approche où les pays poursuivront des engagements volontaires non contraignants. Bien que cet accord constitue une nouvelle étape sur la longue et difficile route des négociations climatiques, de l’avis de tous, le compte n’y est pas

Imaginer des transitions vers une Suisse sobre en carbone: Une évaluation économique

Cette étude présente la contribution Suisse au projet Deep Decarbonization Pathways (DDPP) qui représente une plateforme internationale collaborative visant à déterminer et à comprendre comment aller vers des économies sobre en carbone, permettant ainsi de maintenir le réchauffement global de notre planète en dessous de 2°C. Le projet DDPP est animé par le Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) et par l’Institut du développement durable et des relations internationales (IDDRI). L’administration helvétique et en particulier l’Office Fédéral de l’Environnement (OFEV) a décidé de contribuer au projet en développant sa vison nationale d’une trajectoire de décarbonisation à l’horizon 2050. L’étude Suisse est basée sur des simulations du modèle macro-économique GEMINI-E3, un modèle d’équilibre général calculable utilisé pour évaluer les implications énergétiques et économiques d’une société suisse sobre en carbone. Les Scénarios DDPP helvétiques visent un niveau d’émission par habitant d’une tonne de CO2 en 2050. Notre étude détaille différentes options et différents scénarios compatibles avec cet objectif. Celui s’avère très ambitieux, en particulier compte tenu de la décision de la Suisse de se passer graduellement du nucléaire pour sa production d’électricité. L’efficacité énergétique apparaît comme un élément clef de cette stratégie, de même que certaines options technologiques comme le captage et stockage du carbone (CSC). Le papier évalue le coût économique et le prix du carbone associés à chacun des scénarios et compare ces résultats avec ceux d’autres études