When to start antiretroviral therapy: The need for an evidence base during early HIV infection

Background Strategies for use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) have traditionally focused on providing treatment to persons who stand to benefit immediately from initiating the therapy. There is global consensus that any HIV+ person with CD4 counts less than 350 cells/μl should initiate ART. However, it remains controversial whether ART is indicated in asymptomatic HIV-infected persons with CD4 counts above 350 cells/μl, or whether it is more advisable to defer initiation until the CD4 count has dropped to 350 cells/μl. The question of when the best time is to initiate ART during early HIV infection has always been vigorously debated. The lack of an evidence base from randomized trials, in conjunction with varying degrees of therapeutic aggressiveness and optimism tempered by the risks of drug resistance and side effects, has resulted in divided expert opinion and inconsistencies among treatment guidelines. Discussion On the basis of recent data showing that early ART initiation reduces heterosexual HIV transmission, some countries are considering adopting a strategy of universal treatment of all HIV+ persons irrespective of their CD4 count and whether ART is of benefit to the individual or not, in order to reduce onward HIV transmission. Since ART has been found to be associated with both short-term and long-term toxicity, defining the benefit:risk ratio is the critical missing link in the discussion on earlier use of ART. For early ART initiation to be justified, this ratio must favor benefit over risk. An unfavorable ratio would argue against using early ART. Summary There is currently no evidence from randomized controlled trials to suggest that a strategy of initiating ART when the CD4 count is above 350 cells/μl (versus deferring initiation to around 350 cells/μl) results in benefit to the HIV+ person and data from observational studies are inconsistent. Large, clinical endpoint-driven randomized studies to determine the individual health benefits versus risks of earlier ART initiation are sorely needed. The counter-argument to this debate topic can be freely accessed here: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/11/147 webcite

artcat: Sample-size calculation for an ordered categorical outcome

We describe a new command, artcat, that calculates sample size or power for a randomized controlled trial or similar experiment with an ordered categorical outcome, where analysis is by the proportional-odds model. artcat implements the method of Whitehead (1993, Statistics in Medicine 12: 2257–2271). We also propose and implement a new method that 1) allows the user to specify a treatment effect that does not obey the proportional-odds assumption, 2) offers greater accuracy for large treatment effects, and 3) allows for noninferiority trials. We illustrate the command and explore the value of an ordered categorical outcome over a binary outcome in various settings. We show by simulation that the methods perform well and that the new method is more accurate than Whitehead’s method

artbin: Extended sample size for randomized trials with binary outcomes

We describe the command artbin, which offers various new facilities for the calculation of sample size for binary outcome variables that are not otherwise available in Stata. While artbin has been available since 2004, it has not been previously described in the Stata Journal. artbin has been recently updated to include new options for different statistical tests, methods and study designs, improved syntax, and better handling of noninferiority trials. In this article, we describe the updated version of artbin and detail the various formulas used within artbin in different settings

Impact of covariate omission and categorization from the Fine–Gray model in randomized-controlled trials

In this paper, we study the statistical issues related to the omission and categorization of important covariates in the context of the Fine–Gray model in randomized-controlled trials with competing risks. We show that the omission of an important covariate from the Fine–Gray model leads to attenuated estimates for treatment effect and loss of proportionality in general. Our simulation studies reveal substantial attenuation in the estimate for treatment effect and the loss of statistical power, while dichotomizing a continuous covariate leads to similar but less pronounced impact. Our results are illustrated using data from a randomized clinical trial of HIV-infected individuals. The relative merits of conducting an adjusted versus an unadjusted analysis of treatment effect in light of both statistical and practical considerations are discussed

Fractional Brownian motion and multivariate-t models for longitudinal biomedical data, with application to CD4 counts in HIV-positive patients.

Longitudinal data are widely analysed using linear mixed models, with 'random slopes' models particularly common. However, when modelling, for example, longitudinal pre-treatment CD4 cell counts in HIV-positive patients, the incorporation of non-stationary stochastic processes such as Brownian motion has been shown to lead to a more biologically plausible model and a substantial improvement in model fit. In this article, we propose two further extensions. Firstly, we propose the addition of a fractional Brownian motion component, and secondly, we generalise the model to follow a multivariate-t distribution. These extensions are biologically plausible, and each demonstrated substantially improved fit on application to example data from the Concerted Action on SeroConversion to AIDS and Death in Europe study. We also propose novel procedures for residual diagnostic plots that allow such models to be assessed. Cohorts of patients were simulated from the previously reported and newly developed models in order to evaluate differences in predictions made for the timing of treatment initiation under different clinical management strategies. A further simulation study was performed to demonstrate the substantial biases in parameter estimates of the mean slope of CD4 decline with time that can occur when random slopes models are applied in the presence of censoring because of treatment initiation, with the degree of bias found to depend strongly on the treatment initiation rule applied. Our findings indicate that researchers should consider more complex and flexible models for the analysis of longitudinal biomarker data, particularly when there are substantial missing data, and that the parameter estimates from random slopes models must be interpreted with caution

Cost effectiveness analysis of clinically driven versus routine laboratory monitoring of antiretroviral therapy in Uganda and Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: Despite funding constraints for treatment programmes in Africa, the costs and economic consequences of routine laboratory monitoring for efficacy and toxicity of antiretroviral therapy (ART) have rarely been evaluated. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted in the DART trial (ISRCTN13968779). Adults in Uganda/Zimbabwe starting ART were randomised to clinically-driven monitoring (CDM) or laboratory and clinical monitoring (LCM); individual patient data on healthcare resource utilisation and outcomes were valued with primary economic costs and utilities. Total costs of first/second-line ART, routine 12-weekly CD4 and biochemistry/haematology tests, additional diagnostic investigations, clinic visits, concomitant medications and hospitalisations were considered from the public healthcare sector perspective. A Markov model was used to extrapolate costs and benefits 20 years beyond the trial. RESULTS: 3316 (1660LCM;1656CDM) symptomatic, immunosuppressed ART-naive adults (median (IQR) age 37 (32,42); CD4 86 (31,139) cells/mm(3)) were followed for median 4.9 years. LCM had a mean 0.112 year (41 days) survival benefit at an additional mean cost of $765 [95$7386 [3277,dominated] per life-year gained and $7793 [4442,39179] per quality-adjusted life year gained. Routine toxicity tests were prominent cost-drivers and had no benefit. With 12-weekly CD4 monitoring from year 2 on ART, low-cost second-line ART, but without toxicity monitoring, CD4 test costs need to fall below$3.78 to become cost-effective (<3xper-capita GDP, following WHO benchmarks). CD4 monitoring at current costs as undertaken in DART was not cost-effective in the long-term. CONCLUSIONS: There is no rationale for routine toxicity monitoring, which did not affect outcomes and was costly. Even though beneficial, there is little justification for routine 12-weekly CD4 monitoring of ART at current test costs in low-income African countries. CD4 monitoring, restricted to the second year on ART onwards, could be cost-effective with lower cost second-line therapy and development of a cheaper, ideally point-of-care, CD4 test

The impact of different CD4 monitoring and switching strategies on mortality in HIV-infected African adults on antiretroviral therapy; an application of dynamic marginal structural models

In Africa, antiretroviral therapy (ART) is delivered with limited laboratory monitoring, often none. In 2003–2004, investigators in the Development of Antiretroviral Therapy in Africa (DART) Trial randomized persons initiating ART in Uganda and Zimbabwe to either laboratory and clinical monitoring (LCM) or clinically driven monitoring (CDM). CD4 cell counts were measured every 12 weeks in both groups but were only returned to treating clinicians for management in the LCM group. Follow-up continued through 2008. In observational analyses, dynamic marginal structural models on pooled randomized groups were used to estimate survival under different monitoring-frequency and clinical/immunological switching strategies. Assumptions included no direct effect of randomized group on mortality or confounders and no unmeasured confounders which influenced treatment switch and mortality or treatment switch and time-dependent covariates. After 48 weeks of first-line ART, 2,946 individuals contributed 11,351 person-years of follow-up, 625 switches, and 179 deaths. The estimated survival probability after a further 240 weeks for post-48-week switch at the first CD4 cell count less than 100 cells/mm3 or non-Candida World Health Organization stage 4 event (with CD4 count <250) was 0.96 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.94, 0.97) with 12-weekly CD4 testing, 0.96 (95% CI: 0.95, 0.97) with 24-weekly CD4 testing, 0.95 (95% CI: 0.93, 0.96) with a single CD4 test at 48 weeks (baseline), and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.91, 0.94) with no CD4 testing. Comparing randomized groups by 48-week CD4 count, the mortality risk associated with CDM versus LCM was greater in persons with CD4 counts of <100 (hazard ratio = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.3, 4.3) than in those with CD4 counts of ≥100 (hazard ratio = 1.1, 95% CI: 0.8, 1.7; interaction P = 0.04). These findings support a benefit from identifying patients immunologically failing first-line ART at 48 weeks

Ciclosporin A Proof of Concept Study in Patients with Active, Progressive HTLV-1 Associated Myelopathy/Tropical Spastic Paraparesis

HTLV-1 is a retrovirus transmitted through body fluids that is commonly seen in the West Indies, South America and Southern Japan but rarely in the UK. Although most patients remain healthy carriers, HTLV-1 causes serious conditions such as adult T cell leukaemia/lymphoma (ATLL) and HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/Tropical Spastic Paraparesis (HAM/TSP). The infection which is life-long cannot be eradicated and treatments for the associated diseases are limited. We report the encouraging findings of the first UK Medical Research Council funded treatment study for patients with early and/or deteriorating HAM/TSP. Treatment with ciclosporin A, a drug commonly used to dampen the immune system in transplant patients, was investigated. Symptoms and signs of disease, particularly low back pain and muscle stiffness, improved by week 24 and in some patients this improvement persisted after the 48 weeks of treatment, at least to the end of the study at week 72. Most striking was the finding that the amount of HTLV-1 in the fluid around the spinal cord, called cerebrospinal fluid, was reduced during treatment. These findings justify the further study of ciclosporin A in patients with HAM/TSP

A Randomized Open-Label Trial of Artesunate- Sulfadoxine-Pyrimethamine with or without Primaquine for Elimination of Sub-Microscopic P. falciparum Parasitaemia and Gametocyte Carriage in Eastern Sudan

In areas of seasonal malaria transmission, treatment of asymptomatic carriers of malaria parasites, whose parasitaemia persists at low densities throughout the dry season, could be a useful strategy for malaria control. We carried out a randomized trial to compare two drug regimens for clearance of parasitaemia in order to identify the optimum regimen for use in mass drug administration in the dry season.A two-arm open-label randomized controlled trial was conducted during the dry season in an area of distinct seasonal malaria in two villages in Gedarif State in eastern Sudan. Participants were asymptomatic adults and children aged over 6 months, with low-density P. falciparum infection detected by PCR. Participants were randomized to receive artesunate/sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (AS+SP) combination for three days with or without a dose of primaquine (PQ) on the fourth day. Parasitaemia detected by PCR on days 3, 7 and 14 after the start of treatment and gametocytes detected by RT-PCR on days 7 and 14 were then recorded. 104 individuals who had low density parasitaemia at screening were randomized and treated during the dry season. On day 7, 8.3% were positive by PCR in the AS+SP+PQ group and 6.5% in the AS+SP group (risk difference 1.8%, 95%CI -10.3% to +13.8%). At enrolment, 12% (12/100) were carrying gametocytes. This was reduced to 6.4% and 4.4% by day 14 (Risk difference 1.9% (95%CI -9.3% to +13.2%) in AS+SP+PQ and AS+SP groups, respectively.Addition of primaquine to artemisinin combination treatment did not improve elimination of parasitaemia and prevention of gametocyte carriage in carriers with low-density parasitaemia in the dry season.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00330902