Prediction Models for Water Erosion Risk Management: A Review

In order to estimate the potential soil erosion hazard of an area, erosion prediction models are needed. Various models have been used by researchers, which ranges from mathematical and conceptual simple approaches to complex models that try to include the complexities of the real world. Six (6) models are reviewed in relation to their suitability for use. The KINEROS, CORINE and EUROSEM were best suited for water erosion risk prediction in cultivated soils. On the other hand, the KINEROS, PESERA, CORINE and EUROSEM were found to be applicable in all sectors (Agronomy, water resources management and road construction) highlighted. The GLASOD had the least applicability with respect to this study.Keywords: Water Erosion, sediment transport models, Model structure and suitability for us

Assessment of the efficacies, potencies and bacteriological qualities of some of the antibiotics sold in Calabar, Nigeria

In this study, an assessment of the efficacies, potencies and qualities of 11 brands of 5 different antibiotics including 3 brands of ampiclox and 2 brands each of ciprofolxacin, gentamicin, rifampicin and tetracylcine sold in Calabar, South-South region of Nigeria was carried out using the agar diffusion technique (sensitivity testing). The efficacies, potencies and qualities of these antibiotics were tested against some clinical isolates which include Escherichia coli, Klebsiella  pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pyogenes in vitro. The overall mean zones of inhibition for the test organisms ranged from 33.0 – 34.7 mm, with 33 mm for E. coli, 20.9 mm for K. pneumoniae, 34.7 mm for P. aeruginosa, 31.4 mm for S. aureus and 17.6 mm for S. pyogenes. The result showed that 3 (60%) of the antibiotics (alaclox, ciprofloxacin and rifampicin) tested showed lower potency against the test organisms  compared with the standard controls. Alaclox produced  significantly (P < 0.05) lower zones of inhibition compared to the other brands of ampiclox (superclox and vitaclox) on S. aureus and S. pyogenes. However, significant differences (P = 0.007, P = 0.026, P = 0.050, P = 0.012) were observed between the zones of  inhibition of the test antibiotics and standard controls for the 3 brands of ampiclox tested on all the test organisms except for K. pneumoniae. There were also  significant differences (P = 0.038, P = 0.038, P = 0.049, P = 0.025, P = 0.032) between the zones of inhibition observed for ciprofloxacin and their standard  controls. Both brands of rifampicin (vitals and medifampi) produced significantly (P = 0.020, P = 0.038) lower zones of inhibition on E. coli and S.pyogenes   compared to their standard controls. Our result also showed there were no significant differences (P > 0.05) between the observed zones of inhibition and standard controls of the brands of gentamicin (richem) and tetracycline. These overall and mean potencies of the test antibiotics showed differences in their efficacies, potencies and qualities. This confirmed that some brands of ampiclox, ciprofloxacin and rifampicin antibiotics sold in Nigeria do not contain the acclaimed quantity of  active ingredients to exert bacteriocidal or bacteriostatic effect on common pathogens.Key words: Antibiotics, assessment, bacteriological quality, efficacy, potency, zones of inhibition

The need to promote behaviour change at the cultural level: one factor explaining the limited impact of the MEMA kwa Vijana adolescent sexual health intervention in rural Tanzania. A process evaluation

Background - Few of the many behavioral sexual health interventions in Africa have been rigorously evaluated. Where biological outcomes have been measured, improvements have rarely been found. One of the most rigorous trials was of the multi-component MEMA kwa Vijana adolescent sexual health programme, which showed improvements in knowledge and reported attitudes and behaviour, but none in biological outcomes. This paper attempts to explain these outcomes by reviewing the process evaluation findings, particularly in terms of contextual factors. Methods - A large-scale, primarily qualitative process evaluation based mainly on participant observation identified the principal contextual barriers and facilitators of behavioural change. Results - The contextual barriers involved four interrelated socio-structural factors: culture (i.e. shared practices and systems of belief), economic circumstances, social status, and gender. At an individual level they appeared to operate through the constructs of the theories underlying MEMA kwa Vijana - Social Cognitive Theory and the Theory of Reasoned Action – but the intervention was unable to substantially modify these individual-level constructs, apart from knowledge. Conclusion - The process evaluation suggests that one important reason for this failure is that the intervention did not operate sufficiently at a structural level, particularly in regard to culture. Recently most structural interventions have focused on gender or/and economics. Complementing these with a cultural approach could address the belief systems that justify and perpetuate gender and economic inequalities, as well as other barriers to behaviour change

The outcome of trachomatous trichiasis surgery in Ethiopia: risk factors for recurrence.

BACKGROUND: Over 1.2 million people are blind from trachomatous trichiasis (TT). Lid rotation surgery is the mainstay of treatment, but recurrence rates can be high. We investigated the outcomes (recurrence rates and other complications) of posterior lamellar tarsal rotation (PLTR) surgery, one of the two most widely practised TT procedures in endemic settings. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted a two-year follow-up study of 1300 participants who had PLTR surgery, conducted by one of five TT nurse surgeons. None had previously undergone TT surgery. All participants received a detailed trachoma eye examination at baseline and 6, 12, 18 and 24 months post-operatively. The study investigated the recurrence rates, other complications and factors associated with recurrence. Recurrence occurred in 207/635 (32.6%) and 108/641 (16.9%) of participants with pre-operative major (>5 trichiatic lashes) and minor (5 lashes (major recurrence). Recurrence was greatest in the first six months after surgery: 172 cases (55%) occurring in this period. Recurrence was associated with major TT pre-operatively (OR 2.39, 95% CI 1.83-3.11), pre-operative entropic lashes compared to misdirected/metaplastic lashes (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.23-3.20), age over 40 years (OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.14-2.20) and specific surgeons (surgeon recurrence risk range: 18%-53%). Granuloma occurred in 69 (5.7%) and notching in 156 (13.0%). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Risk of recurrence is high despite high volume, highly trained surgeons. However, the vast majority are minor recurrences, which may not have significant corneal or visual consequences. Inter-surgeon variation in recurrence is concerning; surgical technique, training and immediate post-operative lid position require further investigation

Onchocerciasis: The Pre-control Association between Prevalence of Palpable Nodules and Skin Microfilariae

*Background*: The prospect of eliminating onchocerciasis from Africa by mass treatment with ivermectin has been rejuvenated following recent successes in foci in Mali, Nigeria and Senegal. Elimination prospects depend strongly on local transmission conditions and therefore on pre-control infection levels. Pre-control infection levels in Africa have been mapped largely by means of nodule palpation of adult males, a relatively crude method for detecting infection. We investigated how informative pre-control nodule prevalence data are for estimating the pre-control prevalence of

Health sector spending and spending on HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria, and development assistance for health: progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3

Background: Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 aims to “ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages”. While a substantial effort has been made to quantify progress towards SDG3, less research has focused on tracking spending towards this goal. We used spending estimates to measure progress in financing the priority areas of SDG3, examine the association between outcomes and financing, and identify where resource gains are most needed to achieve the SDG3 indicators for which data are available. Methods: We estimated domestic health spending, disaggregated by source (government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private) from 1995 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. For disease-specific health spending, we estimated spending for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis for 135 low-income and middle-income countries, and malaria in 106 malaria-endemic countries, from 2000 to 2017. We also estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2019, by source, disbursing development agency, recipient, and health focus area, including DAH for pandemic preparedness. Finally, we estimated future health spending for 195 countries and territories from 2018 until 2030. We report all spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2019 US$, unless otherwise stated. Findings: Since the development and implementation of the SDGs in 2015, global health spending has increased, reaching$7·9 trillion (95% uncertainty interval 7·8–8·0) in 2017 and is expected to increase to $11·0 trillion (10·7–11·2) by 2030. In 2017, in low-income and middle-income countries spending on HIV/AIDS was$20·2 billion (17·0–25·0) and on tuberculosis it was $10·9 billion (10·3–11·8), and in malaria-endemic countries spending on malaria was$5·1 billion (4·9–5·4). Development assistance for health was $40·6 billion in 2019 and HIV/AIDS has been the health focus area to receive the highest contribution since 2004. In 2019,$374 million of DAH was provided for pandemic preparedness, less than 1% of DAH. Although spending has increased across HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria since 2015, spending has not increased in all countries, and outcomes in terms of prevalence, incidence, and per-capita spending have been mixed. The proportion of health spending from pooled sources is expected to increase from 81·6% (81·6–81·7) in 2015 to 83·1% (82·8–83·3) in 2030. Interpretation: Health spending on SDG3 priority areas has increased, but not in all countries, and progress towards meeting the SDG3 targets has been mixed and has varied by country and by target. The evidence on the scale-up of spending and improvements in health outcomes suggest a nuanced relationship, such that increases in spending do not always results in improvements in outcomes. Although countries will probably need more resources to achieve SDG3, other constraints in the broader health system such as inefficient allocation of resources across interventions and populations, weak governance systems, human resource shortages, and drug shortages, will also need to be addressed. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundatio