Early bird catches the worm: finding the most effective early warning indicators of recessions

The paper examines whether certain macrofinancial indicators can be used for early detection of recessions. Analysing a sample of small open economies from Central and Eastern European Union, we first identify the most important indicators used for early detection of recessions, and then test the validity of the selection by using the signal method and multivariate probit regressions. Our results imply that the most effective predictors of upcoming recessions are the slope of the yield curve, current account balance to GDP ratio, real estate price index, self-financing ratio of commercial banks, nominal effective exchange rate, global exports and LIBOR rate. Using the Mann-Whitney U Test, we also find that foreign indicators emit earlier signals of incoming recessions in analysed countries than domestic ones. This type of research is important because of the various stakeholders that base their decisions on the signals provided by these indicators. Primarily, these are various government agencies that participate in monetary and fiscal policy making. Early warning of an impending recession allows economic policy makers to take corrective action to avoid a recession or to significantly mitigate its effects, while unreliable indicators may lead to adoption of unnecessary measures with adverse effects on the economy

Utjecaj fonoloških pogrešaka na prepoznavanje izgovorene riječi

Ovaj diplomski rad obuhvaća samo jedan modalitet jezičnog razumijevanja, točnije, samo jednu njegovu komponentu - govornu. Riječ je, naime, o utjecaju pogrešaka u govornom signalu na prepoznavanje izgovorene riječi. Novije teorije prepoznavanja riječi predlažu modele prema kojima se prepoznavanje govora odvija na temelju posebnih mjesta u spektru na koje se slušatelji oslanjaju u procesiranju govora, odnosno pretpostavljaju da slušatelji uopće ne procesiraju cijeli signal, nego samo neke njegove dijelove. Dakle, možemo pretpostaviti da su neki dijelovi signala informativniji od drugih. Cijela ideja ovakvog načina procesiranja govora potječe od Jakobsonovih distinktivnih obilježja. Sam rad može se podijeliti na dva dijela: prvi dio čini teorijski okvir s pregledom relevantnih saznanja i modela u području prepoznavanja riječi, dok je u drugom dijelu opisano provedeno istraživanje kojim se nastojao opisati utjecaj pogreške u izgovoru na prepoznavanje riječi te povezati rezultate istraživanja s jednim od modela prepoznavanja riječi

Influence of Political Stability on Labour Productivity in Post-Socialist Countries of the European Union

Politička stabilnost u velikoj mjeri djeluje na ekonomske performanse određene zemlje. U ovom će se radu primjenom panel-modela sa slučajnim efektom pokazati da politička stabilnost ima znatan utjecaj na produktivnost rada mjerenu BDP-om po zaposlenom. Pritom će se politička stabilnost određene zemlje procjenjivati s pomoću indikatora političke stabilnosti i izostanka nasilja/terorizma, rizika državnog udara i indikatora državne legitimnosti. U uzorak je odabrano 11 postsocijalističkih zemlja Europske unije od 2000. do 2017. godine. Provedena analiza pokazuje da politička stabilnost ima bitan utjecaj na produktivnost rada u postsocijalističkim europskim zemljama te je robusnost rezultata dodatno potvrđena provođenjem analize pri alternativnim specifikacijama. S obzirom na to da se u postojećim radovima većinom nastojalo otkriti uzroke političke nestabilnosti i kako ih spriječiti, ovaj rad stavlja naglasak na posljedice političke nestabilnosti na produktivnost i gospodarstvo u cjelini.Economic performance of a specific country is, to a large extent, affected by political stability. The aim of this paper is to show that political stability has a significant impact on labour productivity measured by GDP per person employed. An analysis has been made using the random-effects model on three different measures for estimating political stability of a specific country: political stability and absence of violence/terrorism, risk of coup, and state legitimacy. The sample consists of 11 post-socialist EU countries for the period between 2000 and 2017. The results indicate that political stability has a significant impact on labour productivity in post-socialist European countries. The robustness of results has been further conferment by alternative model specification. Given the fact that the majority of existing literature focuses on the causes of political instability and the measures of preventing them, this paper primarily points out the consequences of political instability on labour productivity and the economy

Sleep disorders in COVID-19 patients: a monocentric prevalence study conducted on 337 patients

Introduction : Our study analysed the prevalence of sleep disorders (primarily insomnia and hyper- somnia) in patients who tested positive for Covid 19, as well as the distribution of insomnia/hyper- somnia in different subgroups of these patients (according to their age, gender, BMI, disease severity). Materials and methods: This prospective, noninvasive, cross sectional study was conducted at the Emergency department, Respiratory Center, and Respiratory Intensive care Center of University Hospital Dubrava from December 2020. until March 2021. It included patients whose tested posi- tive for Covid 19 and who reported at least one neurological symptom. Patients were examined, and interviewed face to face using a web – based structured questionnaire designed for the purposes of this study. Results: Of the 337 participants, 109 (32,34%) reported one of two possible symptoms associated with sleep disorder, primarily difficulty sleeping/insomnia ( dubbed „sleep disorder“) or sleepiness/ hypersomnia. Of the 337 participants, 61 (18%) reported sleep disorder while 48 (14%) reported hypersomnia. There was no statistically significant difference in prevalence of sleep disorder between men and women (ꭓ2 = 0,113, p = 0,737). Hypersomnia was more prevalent in women (ꭓ2 = 8,125, p = 0,004). Patients who had sleep disorder had a lower median age by 5 years compared to patients who did not have a sleep disorder (z = 2,6, p = 0,009). Patients who had hypersomnia had a median of age lower for 9 years than patients who did not have hypersomnia (z = 4,3, p = <0,001). There was no significant difference in BMI between patients with and without hypersomnia (z = 0,157, p = 0,875). There was no association of hypersomnia with the presence of pneumonia (ꭓ2 = 0,000, p =1,000). In our study sleep disorder was associated with pneumonia (ꭓ2 = 6.4, p = 0.012). Of the patients with a sleep disorder, 59% of them reported dispnea, 78% had pneumonia and72% were hospitalized. Of the admitted patients, only two of them were transferred to the Respiratory intensive care and were treated using mechanical ventilation. In the patient group with hypersomnia, 46% of patients reported dispnea, 64% had pneumonia and 48% were hospitalized, of which one patient was hospitalized in Respiratory intensive care, and did not require treatmeant with mechanical ventilation. Conclusion: Sleep disorders are prevalent in one form or the other in little over a third of patients with a Covid infection. Age, gender, and the presence of pneumonia are associated with different types of sleep disorders. More studies are needed to investigate the potential effect of sleep on the outcome of patients with COVID 19

A case of „Spectacular Shrinking Deficit“ – case report and short review of elusive clinical phenomena

Spectacular Shrinking Deficit (SSD) is a term attributed by J.P. Mohr to a rare cerebrovascular event defined by a rapid and dramatic improvement of major hemispheric stroke syndrome. It is presumed to be caused by the migration of initially embolic occlusion of an internal carotid artery or middle cerebral artery to its distal branches. It is only reported in several case reports, and case series with differing criteria of what defies an SSD meaning that its presumed prevalence rate of 7-14% of major hemispheric stroke syndromes could be an overestimation. It is usually associated with the cardioembolic cause of stroke, and it has a higher prevalence rate in younger patients, males, and nondiabetics. Our case is a 58 – year old male who presented to our ER with a major hemispheric stroke syndrome (deviation of head and eyes on the right side, central facioparesis on the left, left hemiplegia, and left hemineglect, NIHSS 16) 30 min- utes after symptom onset. He was aggressive, insisting nothing was wrong with him. His initial brain CT showed acute ischemic changes in the right temporooccipital region with an inadequate filling of distal branches of the right MCA shown on CT brain angiography. His symptoms spectacularly improved in our ICU (NIHSS 0) 51 minutes from symptom onset negating the need for thrombolysis. Except for one positive Beta – 2 GPI test his detailed laboratory tests, 24h Holter ECG, TTE, carotid, and vertebral artery ultrasound were noneventful. He had no cognitive or neurological deficit. He denied the possibil- ity of performing TEE and prolonged cardiac monitoring. Control brain MRI 4 days and 4 months later confirmed moderate ischemic changes of the right insular, temporal, and occipital cortex. Studies report that spontaneous recanalization usually happens in 17% of patients but does not correlate with TIA. This is the first report of an SSD with moderate ischemic stroke and no leftover neurological deficit. Other case series report moderate ischemic stroke SSD with a small residual neurological deficit (NIHSS 2-4). Perhaps mood changes can be associated with selective neuronal loss found in animals and patients suf- fering transient occlusion of the brain artery. The cardioembolic cause can in certainty be excluded with TEE and prolonged cardiac monitoring

Lažna farmakorezistencija - stvarni problem

Pharmacoresistant epilepsy poses a great burden to patients, their families, and the whole healthcare system, with numerous social, economic, physical, and psychical consequences. Hence, it is a diagnosis that has to be made only in cases of high certainty, after all potential causes of epilepsy have been evaluated. One of the important causes of pharmacoresistant epilepsy is false pharmacoresistance, an entity that implies a condition in which poor disease control is not a consequence of the biology of the disease itself, antiepileptic drug inefficacy, and/or patient specificity. It is a consequence of human error and strongly depends on the experience of the treating physician, as well as on the attitude of the patient. Despite its ‘falseness’, this entity is accompanied by real consequences for the patient and his family, and at the same time, it delays appropriate treatment of the actual disease from which the patient is suffering. In order to introduce appropriate treatment and avoid unnecessary and harmful diagnostic procedures, false pharmacoresistance is a condition that has to be ruled out in any patient with difficult-to-treat seizures.Farmakorezistentna epilepsija, dijagnoza koju prate brojne društvene, ekonomske, fizičke i psihičke posljedice, predstavlja veliko opterećenje za bolesnike, njihove obitelji, ali i cjelokupni zdravstveni sustav. Stoga je farmakorezistentnu epilepsiju opravdano dijagnosticirati samo u slučajevima u kojima je liječnik siguran u dijagnozu nakon što su procijenjeni svi mogući uzroci. Jedan od uzroka farmakorezistentne epilepsije je takozvana lažna farmakorezistencija, entitet koji podrazumijeva stanje u kojem loša kontrola bolesti nije posljedica biologije same bolesti, antiepileptičkih lijekova i karakteristika bolesnika. Ona je posljedica ljudske pogreške i izravno ovisi o iskustvu liječnika koji liječi, ali i o stavu bolesnika prema liječenju. Unatoč „lažnosti“ ovaj entitet prate stvarne posljedice za bolesnika i njegovu obitelj, a istodobno odgađa odgovarajuće liječenje stvarne bolesti od koje bolesnik boluje. Kako bi se osiguralo uspješno liječenje te izbjegli nepotrebni i štetni dijagnostički postupci, lažna farmakorezistencija je stanje koje se mora isključiti kod svakog bolesnika s epileptičkim napadajima koji se teško kontroliraju

A case of „Spectacular Shrinking Deficit“ – case report and short review of elusive clinical phenomena

Spectacular Shrinking Deficit (SSD) is a term attributed by J.P. Mohr to a rare cerebrovascular event defined by a rapid and dramatic improvement of major hemispheric stroke syndrome. It is presumed to be caused by the migration of initially embolic occlusion of an internal carotid artery or middle cerebral artery to its distal branches. It is only reported in several case reports, and case series with differing criteria of what defies an SSD meaning that its presumed prevalence rate of 7-14% of major hemispheric stroke syndromes could be an overestimation. It is usually associated with the cardioembolic cause of stroke, and it has a higher prevalence rate in younger patients, males, and nondiabetics. Our case is a 58 – year old male who presented to our ER with a major hemispheric stroke syndrome (deviation of head and eyes on the right side, central facioparesis on the left, left hemiplegia, and left hemineglect, NIHSS 16) 30 min- utes after symptom onset. He was aggressive, insisting nothing was wrong with him. His initial brain CT showed acute ischemic changes in the right temporooccipital region with an inadequate filling of distal branches of the right MCA shown on CT brain angiography. His symptoms spectacularly improved in our ICU (NIHSS 0) 51 minutes from symptom onset negating the need for thrombolysis. Except for one positive Beta – 2 GPI test his detailed laboratory tests, 24h Holter ECG, TTE, carotid, and vertebral artery ultrasound were noneventful. He had no cognitive or neurological deficit. He denied the possibil- ity of performing TEE and prolonged cardiac monitoring. Control brain MRI 4 days and 4 months later confirmed moderate ischemic changes of the right insular, temporal, and occipital cortex. Studies report that spontaneous recanalization usually happens in 17% of patients but does not correlate with TIA. This is the first report of an SSD with moderate ischemic stroke and no leftover neurological deficit. Other case series report moderate ischemic stroke SSD with a small residual neurological deficit (NIHSS 2-4). Perhaps mood changes can be associated with selective neuronal loss found in animals and patients suf- fering transient occlusion of the brain artery. The cardioembolic cause can in certainty be excluded with TEE and prolonged cardiac monitoring

THE IMPORTANCE OF CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR CROATIAN BANKS

Uloga društveno odgovornog poslovanja sve više raste u razvijenom svijetu, a posebno se intenzivirala u posljednjih petnaestak godina. Sve više poduzeća uviđa brojne prednosti primjene takve poslove prakse te se različitim društvenim aktivnostima nastoje diverzificirati od konkurencije. Poduzeća u Republici Hrvatskoj su sporije i opreznije pristupila primjeni prakse društveno odgovornog poslovanja. Jedni od predvodnika primjene takve poslovne prakse su hrvatske banke, posebno one u stranom vlasništvu koje su preuzimale društveno odgovorne programe i aktivnosti od inozemnih banaka s kojima su bile povezane. Analizom društveno odgovornih aktivnosti svih hrvatskih banaka došlo se do zaključka da velike banke imaju najveći raspon takvih aktivnosti, najveće budžete te ih primjenjuju na nacionalnoj razini. Također ostvaruju najbolje i najstabilnije poslovne rezultate. Za razliku od njih male bake imaju skromne budžete za društveno odgovorno aktivnosti, primjenjuju ih puno rjeđe od velikih i srednjih banaka i to najčešće na lokalnoj razini gdje posluju. Ujedno ostvaruju i najlošije poslovne rezultate te su u puno većoj mjeri bile pogođene posljednjom financijskom krizom od ostalih banaka. Iz svega navedenoga može se zaključiti da postoji povezanost između primjene društvenog odgovornih aktivnosti hrvatskih banaka i njihove uspješnosti te se očekuje rast primjene društveno odgovornog poslovanja u budućnosti

APPLICABILITY OF THE FINANCIAL AND MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN FORECASTING RECESSIONS IN POST-TRANSITION COUNTRIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION

U radu će se nastojati utvrditi da li se financijski i makroekonomski indikatori mogu koristiti za rano prepoznavanje recesija u posttranzicijskim zemljama Europske unije ili su previše nepouzdani za korištenje. Pritom će se identificirati najvažniji indikatori koji služe za rano prepoznavanje recesija te će se primjenom signalne metode i multivarijatne probit regresije pokušati utvrditi razina njihove pouzdanosti. Istraživanje navedenog problema je važno zbog raznih strana koje svoje odluke temelje ili bi trebali temeljiti na signalima navedenih indikatora. U prvom redu to su razni Vladini organi koji sudjeluju u kreiranju monetarne i fiskalne politike. Rano upozoravanje na nadolazeću recesiju omogućuje Vladinim organima da poduzmu korektivne mjere da se recesija izbjegne ili da se njezini učinci značajno umanje. S druge strane nepouzdani indikatori mogu dovesti do donošenja pogrešnih mjera koje će naštetiti gospodarstvu u cjelini.Modern economies oscillate between periods of expansion and recession. Since, recessions have significant negative impact on production, investments and employment, thru history there were many attempts to predict upcoming recession and by conducting appropriate measures reduce its effects. Normally, for predicting recessions, authors use early warning indicators that should issue signals before the start of recession. However, global recession in 2008. has encouraged discussions why most of existing early warning indicators didn't detect the recession on time. The aim of this paper is to determine if financial and macroeconomic indicators can be used for early detection of an upcoming recession in post-transition EU countries or they will prove too unreliable to use. In order to achieve this objective, comprehensive analysis of existing literature needs to be made to identify majority of existing early warning indicators. Indicators will be selected in the research based on availability of data needed for their estimation. Data should cover at least period from 2006. so the global recession from 2008. can be analysed. Also, recession periods in post-transition EU countries will be determined using normal method of two consecutive quarters with decrease of GDP. Received results on recession periods will be additionally confirmed using Bry-Boschan (BBQ) algorithm. In this paper, three main hypothesis will be tested: • H1: Financial and macroeconomic indicators in post-transition EU countries generate warning signals at least 18 months before the start of recession. • H2: Foreign indicators generate warning signals of upcoming recession sooner than domestic indicators in post-transition EU countries. • H3: Financial indicators generate more accurate warning signals of upcoming recession than macroeconomic indicators in post-transition EU countries. For this, level of reliability of selected indicators will be determined by using signal approach. Additionally, selected indicators will be divided in specific groups depending on variables used for their calculation. Division will be on financial and macroeconomic as well on foreign and domestic indicators. Hypothesis two and three will be tested using Mann – Whitney U test and for hypothesis one multivariat probit regression of five most precise indicators will be made which will then be tested using Pesaran-Timmermann test. Received results will have significant benefit for stakeholders who make decisions based on information from early warning indicators. Primarily for government bodies which are in charge of creating fiscal and monetary policy. Issuing warnings about the upcoming recession allows government bodies to take corrective measures to prevent it or to significantly reduce its effects. On the other hand, imprecise indicators can lead to wrong decision which will have bad impact on the whole economy. Also, this paper will further extend existing early warning literature especially for transition countries which have been largely neglected in previous research, as well as providing comprehensive overview of existing indicators