Biophysical suitability, economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R 2 = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R 2 = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage

Attractiveness of a Four-component Pheromone Blend to Male Navel Orangeworm Moths

The attractiveness to male navel orangeworm moth, Amyelois transitella, of various combinations of a four-component pheromone blend was measured in wind-tunnel bioassays. Upwind flight along the pheromone plume and landing on the odor source required the simultaneous presence of two components, (11Z,13Z)-hexadecadienal and (3Z,6Z,9Z,12Z,15Z)-tricosapentaene, and the addition of either (11Z,13Z)-hexadecadien-1-ol or (11Z,13E)-hexadecadien-1-ol. A mixture of all four components produced the highest levels of rapid source location and source contact. In wind-tunnel assays, males did not seem to distinguish among a wide range of ratios of any of the three components added to (11Z,13Z)-hexadecadienal. Dosages of 10 and 100 ng of the 4-component blend produced higher levels of source location than dosages of 1 and 1,000 ng

The Hubble Constant

I review the current state of determinations of the Hubble constant, which gives the length scale of the Universe by relating the expansion velocity of objects to their distance. There are two broad categories of measurements. The first uses individual astrophysical objects which have some property that allows their intrinsic luminosity or size to be determined, or allows the determination of their distance by geometric means. The second category comprises the use of all-sky cosmic microwave background, or correlations between large samples of galaxies, to determine information about the geometry of the Universe and hence the Hubble constant, typically in a combination with other cosmological parameters. Many, but not all, object-based measurements give $H_0$ values of around 72-74km/s/Mpc , with typical errors of 2-3km/s/Mpc. This is in mild discrepancy with CMB-based measurements, in particular those from the Planck satellite, which give values of 67-68km/s/Mpc and typical errors of 1-2km/s/Mpc. The size of the remaining systematics indicate that accuracy rather than precision is the remaining problem in a good determination of the Hubble constant. Whether a discrepancy exists, and whether new physics is needed to resolve it, depends on details of the systematics of the object-based methods, and also on the assumptions about other cosmological parameters and which datasets are combined in the case of the all-sky methods.Comment: Extensively revised and updated since the 2007 version: accepted by Living Reviews in Relativity as a major (2014) update of LRR 10, 4, 200

Religious Factors and Hippocampal Atrophy in Late Life

Despite a growing interest in the ways spiritual beliefs and practices are reflected in brain activity, there have been relatively few studies using neuroimaging data to assess potential relationships between religious factors and structural neuroanatomy. This study examined prospective relationships between religious factors and hippocampal volume change using high-resolution MRI data of a sample of 268 older adults. Religious factors assessed included life-changing religious experiences, spiritual practices, and religious group membership. Hippocampal volumes were analyzed using the GRID program, which is based on a manual point-counting method and allows for semi-automated determination of region of interest volumes. Significantly greater hippocampal atrophy was observed for participants reporting a life-changing religious experience. Significantly greater hippocampal atrophy was also observed from baseline to final assessment among born-again Protestants, Catholics, and those with no religious affiliation, compared with Protestants not identifying as born-again. These associations were not explained by psychosocial or demographic factors, or baseline cerebral volume. Hippocampal volume has been linked to clinical outcomes, such as depression, dementia, and Alzheimer's Disease. The findings of this study indicate that hippocampal atrophy in late life may be uniquely influenced by certain types of religious factors

Endometrial carcinoma risk among women diagnosed with endometrial hyperplasia: the 34-year experience in a large health plan

Classifying endometrial hyperplasia (EH) according to the severity of glandular crowding (simple hyperplasia (SH) vs complex hyperplasia (CH)) and nuclear atypia (simple atypical hyperplasia (SAH) vs complex atypical hyperplasia (CAH)) should predict subsequent endometrial carcinoma risk, but data on progression are lacking. Our nested case–control study of EH progression included 138 cases, who were diagnosed with EH and then with carcinoma (1970–2003) at least 1 year (median, 6.5 years) later, and 241 controls, who were individually matched on age, date, and follow-up duration and counter-matched on EH classification. After centralised pathology panel and medical record review, we generated rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for treatment and repeat biopsies. With disordered proliferative endometrium (DPEM) as the referent, AH significantly increased carcinoma risk (RR=14, 95% CI, 5–38). Risk was highest 1–5 years after AH (RR=48, 95% CI, 8–294), but remained elevated 5 or more years after AH (RR=3.5, 95% CI, 1.0–9.6). Progression risks for SH (RR=2.0, 95% CI, 0.9–4.5) and CH (RR=2.8, 95% CI, 1.0–7.9) were substantially lower and only slightly higher than the progression risk for DPEM. The higher progression risks for AH could foster management guidelines based on markedly different progression risks for atypical vs non-atypical EH

Co-constructing cultural ecosystem services and wellbeing through a place-based approach

Reductive practices in fisheries management have tended to focus on ecological and economic dimensions that have rendered the social and cultural importance of fishing largely invisible, at least in the context of governance and policy making. This chapter builds on 5 years’ research in the English Channel and Southern North Sea in which the authors adopted a sense of place perspective as a framework for understanding the social and cultural value of small-scale fisheries. Through a number of case studies, the chapter describes how small-scale fisheries result in a series of ‘transformations’ as the marine environment is translated into cultural ecosystem services in coastal settings giving rise to socio-cultural value. This perspective is further developed by considering the value of the social wellbeing ‘lens’ to broaden the sense of place / cultural ecosystem services framework. In pursuing ‘values’ through sense of place, cultural ecosystem services and social wellbeing we discuss how the dualistic treatment of nature and society is problematic. We conclude that a relational co-constructionist approach, although challenging, offers a way of making visible an array of social and cultural values that emerge from the activity of small-scale fisheries