Personalized Prediction of Lifetime Benefits with Statin Therapy for Asymptomatic Individuals: A Modeling Study

Background: Physicians need to inform asymptomatic individuals about personalized outcomes of statin therapy for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, current prediction models focus on short-term outcomes and ignore the competing risk of death due to other causes. We aimed to predict the potential lifetime benefits with statin therapy, taking into account competing risks. Methods and Findings: A microsimulation model based on 5-y follow-up data from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort of individuals aged 55 y and older living in the Ommoord district of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, was used to estimate lifetime outcomes with and without statin therapy. The model was validated in-sample using 10-y follow-up data. We used baseline variables and model output to construct (1) a web-based calculator for gains in total and CVD-free life expectancy and (2) color charts for comparing these gains to the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) charts. In 2,428 participants (mean age 67.7 y, 35.5% men), statin therapy increased total life expectancy by 0.3 y (SD 0.2) and CVD-free life expectancy by 0.7 y (SD 0.4). Age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, hypertension, lipids, diabetes, glucose, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, and creatinine were included in the calculator. Gains in total and CVD-free life expectancy increased with blood pressure, unfavorable lipid levels, and body mass index after multivariable adjustment. Gains decreased considerably with advancing age, while SCORE 10-y CVD mortality risk increased with age. Twenty-five percent of participants with a low SCORE risk achieved equal or larger gains in CVD-free life expectancy than the median gain in participants with a high SCORE risk. Conclusions: We developed tools to predict personalized increases in total and CVD-free life expectancy with statin therapy. The predicted gains we found are small. If the underlying model is validated in an independent cohort, the tools may be useful in discussing with patients their individual outcomes with statin therapy. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summar

Personalized Prediction of Lifetime Benefits with Statin Therapy for Asymptomatic Individuals: A Modeling Study

Background: Physicians need to inform asymptomatic individuals about personalized outcomes of statin therapy for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, current prediction models focus on short-term outcomes and ignore the competing risk of death due to other causes. We aimed to predict the potential lifetime benefits with statin therapy, taking into account competing risks. Methods and Findings: A microsimulation model based on 5-y follow-up data from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort of individuals aged 55 y and older living in the Ommoord district of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, was used to estimate lifetime outcomes with and without statin therapy. The model was validated in-sample using 10-y follow-up data. We used baseline variables and model output to construct (1) a web-based calculator for gains in total and CVD-free life expectancy and (2) color charts for comparing these gains to the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) charts. In 2,428 participants (mean age 67.7 y, 35.5% men), statin therapy increased total life expectancy by 0.3 y (SD 0.2) and CVD-free life expectancy by 0.7 y (SD 0.4). Age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, hypertension, lipids, diabetes, glucose, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, and creatinine were included in the calculator. Gains in total and CVD-free life expectancy increased with blood pressure, unfavorable lipid levels, and body mass index after multivariable adjustment. Gains decreased considerably with advancing age, while SCORE 10-y CVD mortality risk increased with age. Twenty-five percent of participants with a low SCORE risk achieved equal or larger gains in CVD-free life expectancy than the median gain in participants with a high SCORE risk. Conclusions: We developed tools to predict personalized increases in total and CVD-free life expectancy with statin therapy. The predicted gains we found are small. If the underlying model is validated in an independent cohort, the tools may be useful in discussing with patients their individual outcomes with statin therapy. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Prefrontal and anterior cingulate cortex abnormalities in Tourette Syndrome: evidence from voxel-based morphometry and magnetization transfer imaging

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pathophysiological evidence suggests an involvement of fronto-striatal circuits in Tourette syndrome (TS). To identify TS related abnormalities in gray and white matter we used optimized voxel-based morphometry (VBM) and magnetization transfer imaging (MTI) which are more sensitive to tissue alterations than conventional MRI and provide a quantitative measure of macrostructural integrity.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Volumetric high-resolution anatomical T1-weighted MRI and MTI were acquired in 19 adult, unmedicated male TS patients without co-morbidities and 20 age- and sex-matched controls on a 1.5 Tesla neuro-optimized GE scanner. Images were pre-processed and analyzed using an optimized version of VBM in SPM2.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using VBM, TS patients showed significant decreases in gray matter volumes in prefrontal areas, the anterior cingulate gyrus, sensorimotor areas, left caudate nucleus and left postcentral gyrus. Decreases in white matter volumes were detected in the right inferior frontal gyrus, the left superior frontal gyrus and the anterior corpus callosum. Increases were found in the left middle frontal gyrus and left sensorimotor areas. In MTI, white matter reductions were seen in the right medial frontal gyrus, the inferior frontal gyrus bilaterally and the right cingulate gyrus. Tic severity was negatively correlated with orbitofrontal structures, the right cingulate gyrus and parts of the parietal-temporal-occipital association cortex bilaterally.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our MRI <it>in vivo </it>neuropathological findings using two sensitive and unbiased techniques support the hypothesis that alterations in frontostriatal circuitries underlie TS pathology. We suggest that anomalous frontal lobe association and projection fiber bundles cause disinhibition of the cingulate gyrus and abnormal basal ganglia function.</p

Logarithmic Corrections to Extremal Black Hole Entropy from Quantum Entropy Function

We evaluate the one loop determinant of matter multiplet fields of N=4 supergravity in the near horizon geometry of quarter BPS black holes, and use it to calculate logarithmic corrections to the entropy of these black holes using the quantum entropy function formalism. We show that even though individual fields give non-vanishing logarithmic contribution to the entropy, the net contribution from all the fields in the matter multiplet vanishes. Thus logarithmic corrections to the entropy of quarter BPS black holes, if present, must be independent of the number of matter multiplet fields in the theory. This is consistent with the microscopic results. During our analysis we also determine the complete spectrum of small fluctuations of matter multiplet fields in the near horizon geometry.Comment: LaTeX file, 52 pages; v2: minor corrections, references adde

Stochastic Gravity: Theory and Applications

Whereas semiclassical gravity is based on the semiclassical Einstein equation with sources given by the expectation value of the stress-energy tensor of quantum fields, stochastic semiclassical gravity is based on the Einstein-Langevin equation, which has in addition sources due to the noise kernel.In the first part, we describe the fundamentals of this new theory via two approaches: the axiomatic and the functional. In the second part, we describe three applications of stochastic gravity theory. First, we consider metric perturbations in a Minkowski spacetime: we compute the two-point correlation functions for the linearized Einstein tensor and for the metric perturbations. Second, we discuss structure formation from the stochastic gravity viewpoint. Third, we discuss the backreaction of Hawking radiation in the gravitational background of a quasi-static black hole.Comment: 75 pages, no figures, submitted to Living Reviews in Relativit

Stochastic Gravity: Theory and Applications

Whereas semiclassical gravity is based on the semiclassical Einstein equation with sources given by the expectation value of the stress-energy tensor of quantum fields, stochastic semiclassical gravity is based on the Einstein-Langevin equation, which has in addition sources due to the noise kernel. In the first part, we describe the fundamentals of this new theory via two approaches: the axiomatic and the functional. In the second part, we describe three applications of stochastic gravity theory. First, we consider metric perturbations in a Minkowski spacetime, compute the two-point correlation functions of these perturbations and prove that Minkowski spacetime is a stable solution of semiclassical gravity. Second, we discuss structure formation from the stochastic gravity viewpoint. Third, we discuss the backreaction of Hawking radiation in the gravitational background of a black hole and describe the metric fluctuations near the event horizon of an evaporating black holeComment: 100 pages, no figures; an update of the 2003 review in Living Reviews in Relativity gr-qc/0307032 ; it includes new sections on the Validity of Semiclassical Gravity, the Stability of Minkowski Spacetime, and the Metric Fluctuations of an Evaporating Black Hol

Lateral frontal cortex volume reduction in Tourette syndrome revealed by VBM

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Structural changes have been found predominantly in the frontal cortex and in the striatum in children and adolescents with Gilles de la Tourette syndrome (GTS). The influence of comorbid symptomatology is unclear. Here we sought to address the question of gray matter abnormalities in GTS patients <it>with </it>co-morbid obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and/or attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) using voxel-based morphometry (VBM) in twenty-nine adult actually unmedicated GTS patients and twenty-five healthy control subjects.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In GTS we detected a cluster of decreased gray matter volume in the left inferior frontal gyrus (IFG), but no regions demonstrating volume increases. By comparing subgroups of GTS with comorbid ADHD to the subgroup with comorbid OCD, we found a left-sided amygdalar volume increase.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>From our results it is suggested that the left IFG may constitute a common underlying structural correlate of GTS with co-morbid OCD/ADHD. A volume reduction in this brain region that has been previously identified as a key region in OCD and was associated with the active inhibition of attentional processes may reflect the failure to control behavior. Amygdala volume increase is discussed on the background of a linkage of this structure with ADHD symptomatology. Correlations with clinical data revealed gray matter volume changes in specific brain areas that have been described in these conditions each.</p