Ecological and methodological drivers of species' distribution and phenology responses to climate change

Climate change is shifting species’ distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global data set of 651 published marine species’ responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that (1) reanalyses of existing time series state how the existing data sets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species’ responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates; and (4) that new time series be designed to include the detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the accuracy of analyses that seek to quantify the role of climate change in species’ distribution and phenology changes

Prioritisation of Clinical Research by the Example of Type 2 Diabetes: A Caregiver-Survey on Perceived Relevance and Need for Evidence

BACKGROUND: The Cochrane Collaboration aims at providing the best available evidence for interventions in health care. We wished to examine to which extent treatments considered relevant by caregivers in type 2 diabetes are covered by Cochrane systematic reviews. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 130 different interventions in type 2 diabetes were identified based on a review of clinical practice guidelines and expert opinion (Table S1). 459 members of the German Diabetes Society (diabetologists, general practitioners, diabetic nurses, nutritionists, podologists, others) were surveyed via e-mail-list to rank a) the perceived clinical relevance and b) the perceived need for evidence of interventions, based on an internet survey. In the Cochrane Library, there were, at the time of this evaluation, 56 reviews on interventions in diabetes. Generally, coverage of topics by Cochrane reviews reflected the perceived clinical relevance and perceived need for evidence. As an example, highly ranked treatments such as lifestyle changes or oral antidiabetics were well covered, while low rank treatments such as complementary approaches were not covered. Discrepancies occurred with new treatments such as amylin-analogues (low relevance, high need for evidence, review not yet completed) and interventions with immediate and dramatic effects such as treating hypoglycemia (high relevance, low need for evidence, no review). Also, there was a relative scarcity of reviews concerning specific problems, in particular, treatment of late diabetic complications. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: For most interventions, perceived relevance and perceived need for evidence are reflected by the evidence already available. Prioritizing should aim at improving immediacy and consideration of the treatment of complications

Competition-based model of pheromone component ratio detection in the moth

For some moth species, especially those closely interrelated and sympatric, recognizing a specific pheromone component concentration ratio is essential for males to successfully locate conspecific females. We propose and determine the properties of a minimalist competition-based feed-forward neuronal model capable of detecting a certain ratio of pheromone components independently of overall concentration. This model represents an elementary recognition unit for the ratio of binary mixtures which we propose is entirely contained in the macroglomerular complex (MGC) of the male moth. A set of such units, along with projection neurons (PNs), can provide the input to higher brain centres. We found that (1) accuracy is mainly achieved by maintaining a certain ratio of connection strengths between olfactory receptor neurons (ORN) and local neurons (LN), much less by properties of the interconnections between the competing LNs proper. An exception to this rule is that it is beneficial if connections between generalist LNs (i.e. excited by either pheromone component) and specialist LNs (i.e. excited by one component only) have the same strength as the reciprocal specialist to generalist connections. (2) successful ratio recognition is achieved using latency-to-first-spike in the LN populations which, in contrast to expectations with a population rate code, leads to a broadening of responses for higher overall concentrations consistent with experimental observations. (3) when longer durations of the competition between LNs were observed it did not lead to higher recognition accuracy

Differential postural effects of plantar-flexor muscles fatigue under normal, altered and improved vestibular and neck somatosensory conditions

The aim of the present study was to assess the effects of plantar-flexor muscles fatigue on postural control during quiet standing under normal, altered and improved vestibular and neck somatosensory conditions. To address this objective, young male university students were asked to stand upright as still as possible with their eyes closed in two conditions of No Fatigue and Fatigue of the plantar-flexor muscles. In Experiment 1 (n=15), the postural task was executed in two Neutral head and Head tilted backward postures, recognized to degrade vestibular and neck somatosensory information. In Experiment 2 (n=15), the postural task was executed in two conditions of No tactile and Tactile stimulation of the neck provided by the application of strips of adhesive bandage to the skin over and around the neck. Centre of foot pressure displacements were recorded using a force platform. Results showed that (1) the Fatigue condition yielded increased CoP displacements relative to the No Fatigue condition (Experiment 1 and Experiment 2), (2) this destabilizing effect was more accentuated in the Head tilted backward posture than Neutral head posture (Experiment 1) and (3) this destabilizing effect was less accentuated in the condition of Tactile stimulation than that of No tactile stimulation of the neck (Experiment 2). In the context of the multisensory control of balance, these results suggest an increased reliance on vestibular and neck somatosensory information for controlling posture during quiet standing in condition of altered ankle neuromuscular function

Strengthening confidence in climate change impact science

Aim: To assess confidence in conclusions about climate-driven biological change through time, and identify approaches for strengthening confidence scientific conclusions about ecological impacts of climate change. Location: Global. Methods: We outlined a framework for strengthening confidence in inferences drawn from biological climate impact studies through the systematic integration of prior expectations, long-term data and quantitative statistical procedures. We then developed a numerical confidence index (Cindex) and used it to evaluate current practices in 208 studies of marine climate impacts comprising 1735 biological time series. Results: Confidence scores for inferred climate impacts varied widely from 1 to 16 (very low to high confidence). Approximately 35% of analyses were not associated with clearly stated prior expectations and 65% of analyses did not test putative non-climate drivers of biological change. Among the highest-scoring studies, 91% tested prior expectations, 86% formulated expectations for alternative drivers but only 63% statistically tested them. Higher confidence scores observed in studies that did not detect a change or tracked multiple species suggest publication bias favouring impact studies that are consistent with climate change. The number of time series showing climate impacts was a poor predictor of average confidence scores for a given group, reinforcing that vote-counting methodology is not appropriate for determining overall confidence in inferences. Main conclusions: Climate impacts research is expected to attribute biological change to climate change with measurable confidence. Studies with long-term, high-resolution data, appropriate statistics and tests of alternative drivers earn higher Cindex scores, suggesting these should be given greater weight in impact assessments. Together with our proposed framework, the results of our Cindex analysis indicate how the science of detecting and attributing biological impacts to climate change can be strengthened through the use of evidence-based prior expectations and thorough statistical analyses, even when data are limited, maximizing the impact of the diverse and growing climate change ecology literature

When Is Visual Information Used to Control Locomotion When Descending a Kerb?

YesBackground: Descending kerbs during locomotion involves the regulation of appropriate foot placement before the kerb-edge and foot clearance over it. It also involves the modulation of gait output to ensure the body-mass is safely and smoothly lowered to the new level. Previous research has shown that vision is used in such adaptive gait tasks for feedforward planning, with vision from the lower visual field (lvf) used for online updating. The present study determined when lvf information is used to control/update locomotion when stepping from a kerb. Methodology/Principal Findings: 12 young adults stepped down a kerb during ongoing gait. Force sensitive resistors (attached to participants' feet) interfaced with an high-speed PDLC 'smart glass' sheet, allowed the lvf to be unpredictably occluded at either heel-contact of the penultimate or final step before the kerb-edge up to contact with the lower level. Analysis focussed on determining changes in foot placement distance before the kerb-edge, clearance over it, and in kinematic measures of the step down. Lvf occlusion from the instant of final step contact had no significant effect on any dependant variable (p>0.09). Occlusion of the lvf from the instant of penultimate step contact had a significant effect on foot clearance and on several kinematic measures, with findings consistent with participants becoming uncertain regarding relative horizontal location of the kerb-edge. Conclusion/Significance: These findings suggest concurrent feedback of the lower limb, kerb-edge, and/or floor area immediately in front/below the kerb is not used when stepping from a kerb during ongoing gait. Instead heel-clearance and pre-landing-kinematic parameters are determined/planned using lvf information acquired in the penultimate step during the approach to the kerb-edge, with information related to foot placement before the kerb-edge being the most salient

Electroweak Baryogenesis and Dark Matter with an approximate R-symmetry

It is well known that R-symmetric models dramatically alleviate the SUSY flavor and CP problems. We study particular modifications of existing R-symmetric models which share the solution to the above problems, and have interesting consequences for electroweak baryogenesis and the Dark Matter (DM) content of the universe. In particular, we find that it is naturally possible to have a strongly first-order electroweak phase transition while simultaneously relaxing the tension with EDM experiments. The R-symmetry (and its small breaking) implies that the gauginos (and the neutralino LSP) are pseudo-Dirac fermions, which is relevant for both baryogenesis and DM. The singlet superpartner of the U(1)_Y pseudo-Dirac gaugino plays a prominent role in making the electroweak phase transition strongly first-order. The pseudo-Dirac nature of the LSP allows it to behave similarly to a Dirac particle during freeze-out, but like a Majorana particle for annihilation today and in scattering against nuclei, thus being consistent with current constraints. Assuming a standard cosmology, it is possible to simultaneously have a strongly first-order phase transition conducive to baryogenesis and have the LSP provide the full DM relic abundance, in part of the allowed parameter space. However, other possibilities for DM also exist, which are discussed. It is expected that upcoming direct DM searches as well as neutrino signals from DM annihilation in the Sun will be sensitive to this class of models. Interesting collider and Gravity-wave signals are also briefly discussed.Comment: 50 pages, 10 figure

The impact of paratracheal lymph node metastasis in squamous cell carcinoma of the hypopharynx

The aim of this study was to analyze the prevalence and prognostic importance of paratracheal lymph nodes in squamous cell carcinoma of the hypopharynx. A retrospective review of 64 previously untreated patients with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the hypopharynx that underwent surgery was performed. Ipsilateral paratracheal lymph node metastases occurred in 22% (14 out of 64) and the mean number of paratracheal lymph nodes dissected per side was 2.3 (range 1–6). Contralateral paratracheal lymph node metastases were present in 2% (1 out of 42). Sixty-seven percent with postcricoid SCC and 22% with pyriform sinus SCC developed clinical node-positive ipsilateral paratracheal lymph node metastases, whereas 11% with posterior pharyngeal wall SCC developed paratracheal metastases. There was a significant correlation between paratracheal lymph node metastasis and cervical metastasis (p = 0.005), and the primary tumor site (postcricoid, 57.1%; pyriform sinus, 20.0%; posterior pharyngeal wall, 8.3%) (p = 0.039). Patients with no evidence of paratracheal lymph node metastasis may have a survival benefit (5-year disease-specific survival rate, 60 vs. 29%). However, this result did not reach statistical significance (p = 0.071). The patients with SCC of the postcricoid and/or pyriform sinus were at risk for ipsilateral paratracheal lymph node metastasis; furthermore, patients with paratracheal node metastasis had a high frequency of cervical metastasis and a poorer prognosis. Therefore, routine ipsilateral paratracheal node dissection is recommended during the surgical treatment of patients with SCC of the postcricoid and/or pyriform sinus with clinical node metastases

Imbibition in Disordered Media

The physics of liquids in porous media gives rise to many interesting phenomena, including imbibition where a viscous fluid displaces a less viscous one. Here we discuss the theoretical and experimental progress made in recent years in this field. The emphasis is on an interfacial description, akin to the focus of a statistical physics approach. Coarse-grained equations of motion have been recently presented in the literature. These contain terms that take into account the pertinent features of imbibition: non-locality and the quenched noise that arises from the random environment, fluctuations of the fluid flow and capillary forces. The theoretical progress has highlighted the presence of intrinsic length-scales that invalidate scale invariance often assumed to be present in kinetic roughening processes such as that of a two-phase boundary in liquid penetration. Another important fact is that the macroscopic fluid flow, the kinetic roughening properties, and the effective noise in the problem are all coupled. Many possible deviations from simple scaling behaviour exist, and we outline the experimental evidence. Finally, prospects for further work, both theoretical and experimental, are discussed.Comment: Review article, to appear in Advances in Physics, 53 pages LaTe

Historical Research Approaches to the Analysis of Internationalisation

Historical research methods and approaches can improve understanding of the most appropriate techniques to confront data and test theories in internationalisation research. A critical analysis of all “texts” (sources), time series analyses, comparative methods across time periods and space, counterfactual analysis and the examination of outliers are shown to have the potential to improve research practices. Examples and applications are shown in these key areas of research with special reference to internationalisation processes. Examination of these methods allows us to see internationalisation processes as a sequenced set of decisions in time and space, path dependent to some extent but subject to managerial discretion. Internationalisation process research can benefit from the use of historical research methods in analysis of sources, production of time-lines, using comparative evidence across time and space and in the examination of feasible alternative choices