Similar crimes, similar behaviors? Comparing lone-actor terrorists and public mass murderers

This article adds to the growth in data-driven analyses seeking to compare samples of violent extremists with other violent populations of interest. While lone-actor terrorists and public mass murderers are frequently treated as distinct offender types, both engage (or attempt to engage) in largely public and highly publicized acts of violence and often use similar weapons. This article investigates the (dis)similarities between both offender types. We use a series of bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses to compare demographic, psychologic and behavioral variables across 71 lone-actor terrorists and 115 public mass murderers. The results show little distinction in sociodemographic profiles, but significant differences in (a) the degree to which they interact with co-ideologues (b) antecedent event behaviors and (c) the degree to which they leak information before the attack. Overall, our data inform the emerging idea that lone-actor terrorists and public mass shooters are not distinct offender types. There is more that unites them than divides them. Although the over-arching focus of our results are on the few variables that distinguish them, the vast majority (80%+), of the 180+ variables showed no significant difference. We discuss implications for threat assessment and management in the context of these results

Disaggregating Lone-actor Grievance-fuelled Violence: Comparing Lone-actor Terrorists and Mass Murderers

Research suggests that lone-actor terrorists and mass murderers may be better conceptualized as lone-actor grievance-fueled violence (LAGFV) offenders, rather than as distinct types. The present study sought to examine the extent to which these offenders could (or could not) be disaggregated along dimensions relevant to the threat assessment of both. Drawing on a Risk Analysis Framework (RAF), the offending process was theorized as interactions among propensity, situation, preparatory, leakage and network indicators. We analyzed a dataset of 183 U.S. offenders, including sixty-eight lone-actor terrorists and 115 solo mass murderers. Cluster analysis identified profiles within each of the components: propensity (stable, criminal, unstable), situation (low stress, high stress (social), high stress (interpersonal), preparatory (fixated, novel aggression, equipped, clandestine, predatory, preparatory), leakage (high leakage, low leakage), and network (lone, associated, connected). Bi-variate analysis examined the extent to which the profiles classified offenders previously labeled as lone-actor terrorists or mass murderers. The results suggest that while significant differences may exist at the periphery of these dimensions, offenders previously classified as lone-actor terrorists or mass murderers occupy a noteworthy shared space. Moreover, no profile classifies a single “type” of offender exclusively. Lastly, we propose a dynamic, interactional model of LAGFV and discuss the implications of these findings for the threat assessment and management of LAGFV offenders

Behaviour Tracking: Using geospatial and behaviour sequence analysis to map crime

Crime is a complex phenomenon. To understand the commission of crime, researchers must map both the temporal and the spatial processes involved. The current research combines a temporal method of analysis, Behaviour Sequence Analysis, with geospatial mapping, to outline a new method of integrating temporal and spatial movements of criminals. To show how the new method can be applied, a burglary scenario was used, and the movements and behaviours of a criminal tracked around the property. Results showed that combining temporal and spatial analyses allows for a clearer account of the process of a crime scene. The current method has application to a large range of other crimes and terrorist movements, for instance between cities and movements within each city. Therefore, the current research provides the foundation framework for a novel method of spatio-temporal analyses of crime

Money talks: moral economies of earning a living in neoliberal East Africa

Neoliberal restructuring has targeted not just the economy, but also polity, society and culture, in the name of creating capitalist market societies. The societal repercussions of neoliberal policy and reform in terms of moral economy remain understudied. This article seeks to address this gap by analysing moral economy characteristics and dynamics in neoliberalised communities, as perceived by traders in Uganda and sex workers in Kenya. The interview data reveal perceived drivers that contributed to a significant moral dominance of money, self-interest, short-termism, opportunism and pragmatism. Equally notable are a perceived (i) close interaction between political–economic and moral–economic dynamics, and (ii) significant impact of the political–economic structure on moral agency. Respondents primarily referred to material factors usually closely linked to neoliberal reform, as key drivers of local moral economies. We thus speak of a neoliberalisation of moral economies, itself part of the wider process of embedding and locking-in market society structures in the two countries. An improved political economy of moral economy can help keep track of this phenomenon

PAUSED for thought? Using verbal protocol analysis to understand the situational and temporal cues in the decision-making of residential burglars

Using verbal protocol analysis (VPA) alongside semi-structured interviews, this research aimed to explicate the situational dynamics that inform the decision-making and target selection of residential burglars. Focusing on the VPA method, novel to criminological research, the paper considers the contribution of this empirical approach for studying the decision-making of offenders in situ. The findings reveal a series of cues, encapsulated in the ‘PAUSED’ model, that are drawn upon by residential burglars to assess the suitability of a target; determining whether it is profitable, accessible, uninterruptible, surveillable, escapable and/or dishonourable. The PAUSED model is unpacked to articulate a collection of visual stimuli that serve to disrupt and suspend the otherwise rapid flow of target appraisal. Discussion of the strengths and limitations of the VPA method, and how it can compliment other approaches to understanding the decision-making of residential burglars, is provided

The Combined Roles of Moral Emotion and Moral Rules in Explaining Acts of Violence Using a Situational Action Theory Perspective

The roles of shame and guilt, and their relationships to empathy, have not been modeled adequately as key factors in moral decision-making in the study of violence. The role of moral emotion has been neglected in existing criminological research and this study seeks to develop current explanations of the comprehensive myriad of factors that play a role in moral crime decision-making. This research will test the different roles of empathy, shame, and guilt in violence decision-making using a situational action theory (SAT) perspective. Data taken from the Peterborough Adolescent and Young Adult Development Study (PADS+), a longitudinal study with a large representative sample, provide quantitative questionnaire indices to enable comparison of a persistent and frequent violent offender subsample (N = 48) with the remaining PADS+ study sample (N = 607). A striking majority of violent offenders report that they do not think it is wrong to commit violence, and do not care about it, that is, they lack shame and guilt, and report that violence comes as a morally acceptable and natural action alternative. Furthermore, violent offenders do not register the predicament of their victims; there is a distinct lack of empathy. This article demonstrates a key finding which has rarely been explored to date; regression analyses reveal an interaction effect whereby individuals with weak shame and guilt, combined specifically with weak moral rules, are more likely to commit acts of violence. The study findings provide strong support for the SAT of the role of weak morality in violence decision-making. To reduce the possibility of crime being seen as an action alternative, moral development programs should be developed and administered in childhood

Encouraging public reporting of suspicious behaviour on rail networks

Ongoing targeting of mass transit networks and the challenges associated with policing these large open systems means that encouraging public vigilance and reporting on railways is a counter-terrorism priority. There is, however, surprisingly little research on motivations and barriers to cooperating with the police in this context. This paper contributes to this under-researched field by presenting the findings of a survey experiment which examined (1) the role of uncertainty as a barrier for reporting suspicious behaviour on rail networks, (2) whether drivers for cooperation established in the context of traditional crime hold for reporting suspicious behaviour at train stations, and (3) whether the UK ‘See it. Say it. Sorted’ campaign is effective in encouraging reporting. Data was collected in the UK and Denmark, national contexts with differing baseline attitudes towards the police and experiences of transit terrorist attacks, to assess the extent to which public vigilance campaigns need to be adapted to address local concerns. Results suggest that future public vigilance campaigns should address differences in lay and official definitions of suspicious behaviour to reduce uncertainty as a barrier to reporting. They also demonstrate that the influence of procedural justice on cooperation via its influence on social identification with the police holds beyond the context of community policing and reporting of traditional crime. However, other drivers are likely to be more important for determining reporting suspicious behaviour on rail networks, including perceived benefits of reporting. Theoretical and practical implications of cross-national differences and similarities in responses are discussed

Developing an alternative formulation of SCP principles – the Ds (11 and counting)

Background The 25 Techniques of Situational Crime Prevention remain one of the bedrocks of research in Crime Science and play a key role in managing knowledge of research and practice. But they are not the only way of organising, transferring and applying this knowledge. Discussion Taking the 25 Techniques and their theoretical underpinnings as our starting point, this paper presents the (currently) 11 Ds, a set of intervention principles which focus specifically on how the interventions are intended to influence the offender in the proximal crime situation. The context of this work was a project to help security managers detect and control attempts to undertake 'hostile reconnaissance' of public places by those planning to commit crimes or acts of terrorism. We discuss why we judged 25 Techniques as a model for emulation in general terms but unsuitable in detail for the present purpose. We also describe the process of developing the principles, which involved both reflection, and capture of new knowledge from theory and practice, including the security domain. The distinctive contribution of professional design to this process is noted. We then present the Ds themselves and show how, as generic principles, they relate to practical methods of prevention; how they can be further organised to aid their learning and their use; how they relate to other formulations such as the Conjunction of Criminal Opportunity; and how they might apply, with expansion perhaps, to the wider field of SCP. Summary We discuss the process and the wider benefits of developing alternative – but rigorously linked – perspectives on the same theories and phenomena both for transferring existing research knowledge to practice and for sparking leading-edge theory and research

Behaviour tracking: using geospatial and behaviour sequence analysis to map crime

Crime is a complex phenomenon. To understand the commission of crime, researchers must map both the temporal and the spatial processes involved. The current research combines a temporal method of analysis, Behaviour Sequence Analysis, with geospatial mapping, to outline a new method of integrating temporal and spatial movements of criminals. To show how the new method can be applied, a burglary scenario was used, and the movements and behaviours of a criminal tracked around the property. Results showed that combining temporal and spatial analyses allows for a clearer account of the process of a crime scene. The current method has application to a large range of other crimes and terrorist movements, for instance between cities and movements within each city. Therefore, the current research provides the foundation framework for a novel method of spatio-temporal analyses of crime