A cross-border deforestation index to understand underlying drivers of deforestation

This paper considers a preliminary investigation involving the development of a Cross-Border Deforestation Index (CBDI), which is an attempt to quantify the differences in deforestation between two countries or potentially any two administrative units. In this study, the focus was on countries. For each pair of bordering countries, a 50km buffer zone was drawn and the average value of the Vegetation Continuous Field (VCF) was calculated for each country in the pair. The ratio of these two averages is the CBDI. Values of 1 indicate similar levels of forest cover but values greater than 1 point towards dissimilar land use policies within countries and/or sub-national administrative levels. This index was calculated for all pairs of bordering tropical countries in South and Central America, Asia and Africa. In addition, a visual analysis of the spatial variation of the VCF was undertaken to show how this can complement the CBDI. The results showed that countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Chile, El Salvador, Laos, Thailand and DR Congo, in combination with different neighbouring countries, all have CBDI values differing from 1. These areas are worth examining in greater detail in order to understand what types of drivers are behind these outlying CBDI values. These drivers could include land use policy, population pressure, accessibility, etc. Future work will i nclude the addition of environmental factors. By computing the CBDI for so called Homogeneous Response Units (HRU: areas of similar or identical environmental conditions in terms of soil, altitude and slope), we will be able to examine the changing effect on the CBDI. This work is still ongoing and will be expanded to consider HRU for all country pairs. In addition, regression of the CBDI with different drivers of deforestation will be attempted in order to help identify these underlying causes

Performance Evaluation of Road Traffic Control Using a Fuzzy Cellular Model

In this paper a method is proposed for performance evaluation of road traffic control systems. The method is designed to be implemented in an on-line simulation environment, which enables optimisation of adaptive traffic control strategies. Performance measures are computed using a fuzzy cellular traffic model, formulated as a hybrid system combining cellular automata and fuzzy calculus. Experimental results show that the introduced method allows the performance to be evaluated using imprecise traffic measurements. Moreover, the fuzzy definitions of performance measures are convenient for uncertainty determination in traffic control decisions.Comment: The final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.co

Estuarine Infauna Within Incidentally Retained Sediment in Artificial Rockpools

Artificial coastal structures (ACSs) are primarily designed to provide services for human use, such as flood defence or shipping, and are generally poor for marine biodiversity. Consequently, there has been significant research effort to enhance these hard structures to increase biodiversity and habitat availability via eco-engineering. On seawalls and breakwaters, this has included the creation of habitats for benthic species found on natural rocky shores, including the provision of cracks, crevices and water retaining features, such as artificial rockpools. When sediment retention in these features has occurred, it has often been deemed detrimental to the overarching aim of the intervention. Yet, it is soft sediment habitat that is impacted the most through coastal construction. As ecological enhancement of a flood defence scheme, nine concrete retrofit rockpools were installed at three different tidal elevations between mean high water neap tide and mean tide level on steel sheet piling on the Arun Estuary in Littlehampton Harbour, United Kingdom, which naturally filled with mud 1 year after installation. To explore how analogous the faunal assemblages and sediment profile of rockpool mud were to two local mudflats, core samples were taken and analysed for species richness, abundance, biomass, assemblage structure, median grain size, and organic matter content. More benthic species were observed in the artificial rockpool than in the local mudflats. Although the rockpools were placed at higher tidal levels than the lower shore mudflat, their assemblage structure and species richness were more similar to the lower shore mudflat at the base of the sheet piling than the upper shore mudflat. This study demonstrates that retained sediment within eco-engineered features on hard ACSs can create habitat for benthic assemblages. Providing sediment-retentive features on ACSs has the potential to provide a novel eco-engineering option that may be appropriate for some heavily modified waterbodies on sheltered, depositional coasts

Mining compact predictive pattern sets using classification model

In this paper, we develop a new framework for mining predictive patterns that aims to describe compactly the condition (or class) of interest. Our framework relies on a classification model that considers and combines various predictive pattern candidates and selects only those that are important for improving the overall class prediction performance. We test our approach on data derived from MIMIC-III EHR database, focusing on patterns predictive of sepsis. We show that using our classification approach we can achieve a significant reduction in the number of extracted patterns compared to the state-of-the-art methods based on minimum predictive pattern mining approach, while preserving the overall classification accuracy of the model

Recurrent back pain during working life and exit from paid employment : a 28-year follow-up of the Whitehall II Study.

Objectives To examine the impact of recurrent, as compared with single, reports of back pain on exit from paid employment over decades of follow-up. Methods The study sample was from the British Whitehall II Study cohort (n=8665, 69% men, aged 35-55 at baseline), who had provided information about their reports of back pain between 1985 and 1994. Data about exit from paid employment (health-related and non-health related exit, unemployment and other exit) were collected between 1995 and 2013. Repeated measures logistic regression models were fitted to examine the associations, and adjust for covariates. Results Recurrent pain was reported by 18% of participants, while 26% reported pain on an occasion and 56% did not report pain. Report of back pain on an occasion was not associated with health-related job exit, whereas recurrent pain was associated with such an exit (OR 1.51; 95% CI 1.15 to 1.99), when compared with those who did not report pain. These associations were somewhat stronger among middle-grade and lower-grade employees, while these associations were not seen among higher-grade employees. Differences in associations by age and psychosocial working conditions were small. Conclusions These results highlight the need for early detection of recurrent back pain to prevent exit out of paid employment for health reasons. As the risk varies by occupational grade, this emphasises the importance of identification of high-risk groups and finding ways to address their modifiable risk factors.Peer reviewe

Sharks of the order Carcharhiniformes from the British Coniacian, Santonian and Campanian (Upper Cretaceous).

Bulk sampling of phosphate-rich horizons within the British Coniacian to Campanian (Upper Cretaceous) yielded very large samples of shark and ray teeth. All of these samples yielded teeth of diverse members of the Carcharhiniformes, which commonly dominate the fauna. The following species are recorded and described: Pseudoscyliorhinus reussi (Herman, 1977) comb. nov., Crassescyliorhinus germanicus (Herman, 1982) gen. nov., Scyliorhinus elongatus (Davis, 1887), Scyliorhinus brumarivulensis sp. nov., ? Palaeoscyllium sp., Prohaploblepharus riegrafi (Müller, 1989) gen. nov., ? Cretascyliorhinus sp., Scyliorhinidae inc. sedis 1, Scyliorhinidae inc. sedis 2, Pteroscyllium hermani sp. nov., Protoscyliorhinus sp., Leptocharias cretaceus sp. nov., Palaeogaleus havreensis Herman, 1977, Paratriakis subserratus sp. nov., Paratriakis tenuis sp. nov., Paratriakis sp. indet. and ? Loxodon sp. Taxa belonging to the families ?Proscylliidae, Leptochariidae, and Carcharhinidae are described from the Cretaceous for the first time. The evolutionary and palaeoecological implications of these newly recognised faunas are discussed

Effects of increase in temperature and open water on transmigration and access to health care by the Nenets reindeer herders in northern Russia

Background . The indigenous Nenets reindeer herders in northern Russia annually migrate several hundred kilometers between summer and winter pastures. In the warming climate, ice-rich permafrost and glaciers are being significantly reduced and will eventually disappear from parts of the Arctic. The emergent changes in hydrological cycles have already led to substantial increases in open water that stays unfrozen for longer periods of time. This environmental change has been reported to compromise the nomadic Nenets’ traditional way of life because the presence of new water in the tundra reduces the Nenets’ ability to travel by foot, sled, or motor vehicle from the summer transitory tundra campsites in order to access healthcare centers in villages. New water can also impede their access to family and community at other herder camps and in the villages. Although regional and global models predicting hydrologic changes due to climate changes exist, the spatial resolution of these models is too coarse for studying how increases in open water affect health and livelihoods. To anticipate the full health impact of hydrologic changes, the current gap between globally forecasted scenarios and locally forecasted hydrologic scenarios needs to be bridged. Objectives . We studied the effects of the autumn temperature anomalies and increases in open water on health care access and transmigration of reindeer herders on the Kanin Peninsula. Design . Correlational and time series analyses were completed. Methods . The study population consisted of 370 full-time, nomadic reindeer herders. We utilized clinical visit records, studied surface temperature anomalies during autumn migrations, and used remotely sensed imagery to detect water bodies. Spearman correlation was used to measure the relationship between temperature anomalies and the annual arrival of the herders at the Nes clinic for preventive and primary care. Piecewise regression was used to model change in mean autumnal temperature anomalies over time. We also created a water body product to detect inter-annual changes in water area. Results . Correlation between arrivals to the Nes clinic and temperature anomalies during the fall transmigration (1979–2011) was r = 0.64, p = 0.0004; 95% CI (0.31; 0.82). Regression analysis estimated that mean temperature anomalies during the fall migration in September–December were stochastically stationary pre-1991 and have been rising significantly (p < 0.001) since then. The rate of change was estimated at +0.1351°C/year, SE = 0.0328, 95% CI (+0.0694, +0.2007). The amount of detected water fluctuated significantly interannually (620–800 km2). Conclusions . Later arrival of freezing temperatures in the autumn followed by the earlier spring thaws and more open water delay transmigration and reduce herders’ access to health care. The recently observed delays in arrival to the clinic are likely related to the warming trend and to concomitant hydrologic changes