A joint analysis of influenza-associated hospitalizations and mortality in Hong Kong, 1998–2013

published_or_final_versio

Use of Bayesian inference for parameter recovery in DC and AC voltammetry

We describe the use of Bayesian inference for quantitative comparison of voltammetric methods for investigating electrode kinetics. We illustrate the utility of the approach by comparing the information content in both DC and AC voltammetry at a planar electrode for the case of a quasi-reversible one electron reaction mechanism. Using synthetic data (i. e. simulated data based on Butler-Volmer electrode kinetics for which the true parameter values are known and to which realistic levels of simulated experimental noise have been added), we are able to show that AC voltammetry is less affected by experimental noise (so that in effect it has a greater information content then the corresponding DC measurement) and hence yields more accurate estimates of the experimental parameters for a given level of noise. Significantly, the AC approach is shown to be able to distinguish higher values of the rate constant. The results of using synthetic data are then confirmed for an illustrative case of experimental data for the [Fe(CN)6]3−/4−process

The influence of soil communities on the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration

Soil respiration represents a major carbon flux between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, and is expected to accelerate under climate warming. Despite its importance in climate change forecasts, however, our understanding of the effects of temperature on soil respiration (RS) is incomplete. Using a metabolic ecology approach we link soil biota metabolism, community composition and heterotrophic activity, to predict RS rates across five biomes. We find that accounting for the ecological mechanisms underpinning decomposition processes predicts climatological RS variations observed in an independent dataset (n = 312). The importance of community composition is evident because without it RS is substantially underestimated. With increasing temperature, we predict a latitudinal increase in RS temperature sensitivity, with Q10 values ranging between 2.33 ±0.01 in tropical forests to 2.72 ±0.03 in tundra. This global trend has been widely observed, but has not previously been linked to soil communities

Human Coronary Artery Remodeling, Beginning and End of the Atherosclerotic Process

BACKGROUND, AIMS OF THE STUDY: The objective of the study was to relate the progress of coronary artery remodeling to the earliest stages of the atherosclerotic process. For this purpose, a mathematical model for description of dimensional change of the coronary artery wall and its constituent components was developed and applied. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study used coronary artery samples randomly taken from each of 83 consecutive, unselected postmortems. All samples were routinely fixed and processed to paraffin for the preparation of right-angled, 5-micron sections, routinely stained and mounted for subsequent analysis. Computer assisted image analysis, using 32 systematic random, radial sampling lines, was used for interactive measurements of distance from centre of lumen to points defining intima, media and adventitia thickness along the radial intercept, which were subsequently tabled for analysis of variance, calculations of (group –vessel) means, and related to stage of pathology. RESULTS: Pre-atherosclerotic changes, before any localised changes in especially intima dimensions, are found, consisting of a process of gradual vascular widening, associated with temporally at least partly dissociated increases in width, which as a fraction of total vessel radius show a phased process. In these, the intima first increases, subsequently remains stable, and finally reduces in width proportionally to the increasing diameter. The media shows a similar initial increase, on average stabilising in the third phase after reaching a plateau value in the second. The adventitia, already increasing in phase 1, continues to increase in phase 2, accelerating in phase 3. The complex process, as found, occurs systematically in all vessels, is distributed circumferentially, and precedes the development of localised lesions of the intima. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest the existence of a diffuse complex of changes, consisting of a gradual vascular widening followed by narrowing, with associated mural changes reflecting the atherosclerotic process

Systematic evaluation of implementation fidelity of complex interventions in health and social care

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Evaluation of an implementation process and its fidelity can give insight into the 'black box' of interventions. However, a lack of standardized methods for studying fidelity and implementation process have been reported, which might be one reason for the fact that few prior studies in the field of health service research have systematically evaluated interventions' implementation processes.</p> <p>The aim of this project is to systematically evaluate implementation fidelity and possible factors influencing fidelity of complex interventions in health and social care.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A modified version of The Conceptual Framework for Implementation Fidelity will be used as a conceptual model for the evaluation. The modification implies two additional moderating factors: context and recruitment. A systematic evaluation process was developed. Multiple case study method is used to investigate implementation of three complex health service interventions. Each case will be investigated in depth and longitudinally, using both quantitative and qualitative methods.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This study is the first attempt to empirically test The Conceptual Framework for Implementation Fidelity. The study can highlight mechanism and factors of importance when implementing complex interventions. Especially the role of the moderating factors on implementation fidelity can be clarified.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>Supported Employment, SE, among people with severe mental illness -- a randomized controlled trial: NCT00960024.</p

Using Rasch analysis to form plausible health states amenable to valuation: the development of CORE-6D from CORE-OM in order to elicit preferences for common mental health problems

Purpose: To describe a new approach for deriving a preference-based index from a condition specific measure that uses Rasch analysis to develop health states. Methods: CORE-OM is a 34-item instrument monitoring clinical outcomes of people with common mental health problems. CORE-OM is characterised by high correlation across its domains. Rasch analysis was used to reduce the number of items and response levels in order to produce a set of unidimensionally-behaving items, and to generate a credible set of health states corresponding to different levels of symptom severity using the Rasch item threshold map. Results: The proposed methodology resulted in the development of CORE-6D, a 2-dimensional health state description system consisting of a unidimensionally-behaving 5-item emotional component and a physical symptom item. Inspection of the Rasch item threshold map of the emotional component helped identify a set of 11 plausible health states, which, combined with the physical symptom item levels, will be used for the valuation of the instrument, resulting in the development of a preference-based index. Conclusions: This is a useful new approach to develop preference-based measures where the domains of a measure are characterised by high correlation. The CORE-6D preference-based index will enable calculation of Quality Adjusted Life Years in people with common mental health problems

An in vivo platform to select and evolve aggregation-resistant proteins

Protein biopharmaceuticals are highly successful, but their utility is compromised by their propensity to aggregate during manufacture and storage. As aggregation can be triggered by non-native states, whose population is not necessarily related to thermodynamic stability, prediction of poorly-behaving biologics is difficult, and searching for sequences with desired properties is labour-intensive and time-consuming. Here we show that an assay in the periplasm of E. coli linking aggregation directly to antibiotic resistance acts as a sensor for the innate (un-accelerated) aggregation of antibody fragments. Using this assay as a directed evolution screen, we demonstrate the generation of aggregation resistant scFv sequences when reformatted as IgGs. This powerful tool can thus screen and evolve ‘manufacturable’ biopharmaceuticals early in industrial development. By comparing the mutational profiles of three different immunoglobulin scaffolds, we show the applicability of this method to investigate protein aggregation mechanisms important to both industrial manufacture and amyloid disease

Evidence for solar cycles in a late Holocene speleothem record from Dongge Cave, China

The association between solar activity and Asian monsoon (AM) remains unclear. Here we evaluate the possible connection between them based on a precisely-dated, high-resolution speleothem oxygen isotope record from Dongge Cave, southwest China during the past 4.2 thousand years (ka). Without being adjusted chronologically to the solar signal, our record shows a distinct peak-to-peak correlation with cosmogenic nuclide 14C, total solar irradiance (TSI) and sunspot number (SN) at multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Further cross-wavelet analyses between our calcite δ18O and atmospheric 14C show statistically strong coherence at three typical periodicities of ~80, 200 and 340 years, suggesting important roles of solar activities in modulating AM changes at those timescales. Our result has further indicated a better correlation between our calcite δ18O record and atmospheric 14C than between our record and TSI. This better correlation may imply that the Sun–monsoon connection is dominated most likely by cosmic rays and oceanic circulation (both associated to atmospheric 14C), instead of the direct solar heating (TSI)