Synthèse de modèles régionaux d'estimation de crue utilisée en France et au Québec

De nombreuses méthodes régionales ont été développées pour améliorer l'estimation de la distribution des débits de crues en des sites où l'on dispose de peu d'information ou même d'aucune information. Cet article présente une synthèse de modèles hydrologiques utilisés en France et au Québec (Canada), à l'occasion d'un séminaire relatif aux " méthodes d'estimation régionale en hydrologie " tenu à Lyon en mai 1997. Les modèles français sont fortement liés à une technique d'extrapolation de la distribution des crues, la méthode du Gradex, qui repose sur l'exploitation probabiliste conjointe des séries hydrométriques et pluviométriques. Ceci explique les deux principaux volets d'études régionales pratiquées en France : les travaux liés à la régionalisation des pluies et ceux liés à la régionalisation des débits. Les modèles québecois comprennent généralement deux étapes : la définition et la détermination de régions hydrologiquement homogènes, puis l'estimation régionale, par le transfert à l'intérieur d'une même région de l'information des sites jaugés à un site non-jaugé ou partiellement jaugé pour lequel on ne dispose pas d'information suffisante. Après avoir donné un aperçu des méthodes pratiquées dans les deux pays, une discussion dégage les caractéristiques principales et les complémentarités des différentes approches et met en évidence l'intérêt de développer une collaboration plus étroite pour mieux tenir compte des particularités et des complémentarités des méthodes développées de part et d'autre. Une des pistes évoquées consiste à combiner l'information régionale pluviométrique (approche française) et hydrométrique (approche québécoise).Design flood estimates at ungauged sites or at gauged sites with short records can be obtained through regionalization techniques. Various methods have been employed in different parts of the world for the regional analysis of extreme hydrological events. These regionalization approaches make different assumptions and hypotheses concerning the hydrological phenomena being modeled, rely on various types of continuous and non-continuous data, and often fall under completely different theories. A research seminar dealing with " regional estimation methods in hydrology " took place in Lyon during the month of May 1997, and brought together various researchers and practitioners mainly from France and the Province of Quebec (Canada). The present paper is based on the conferences and discussions that took place during this seminar and aims to review, classify, comparatively evaluate, and potentially propose improvements to the most prominent regionalization techniques utilized in France and Quebec. The specific objectives of this paper are :· to review the main regional hydrologic models that have been proposed and commonly used during the last three decades ;· to classify the literature into different groups according to the origin of the method, its specific objective, and the technique it adopts ; · to present a comprehensive evaluation of the characteristics of the methods, and to point out the hypotheses, data requirements, strengths and weaknesses of each particular one ; and · to investigate and identify potential improvements to the reviewed methods, by combining and extending the various approaches and integrating their particular strengths.Regionalization approaches adopted in France include the Gradex method which represents a simplified rainfall-runoff model which provides estimates of flood magnitudes of given probabilities and is based on rainfall data which often cover longer periods and are more reliable than flow data (Guillot and Duband, 1967 ; CFGB, 1994). It is based on the hypotheses that beyond a given rainfall threshold (known as the pivot point), all water is transformed into runoff, and that a rainfall event of a given duration generates runoff for the same length of time. These hypotheses are equivalent to assuming that, beyond the pivot point, the rainfall-runoff relationship is linear and that the precipitation and runoff probability curves are parallel on a Gumbel plot.In Quebec (and generally in North America), regional flood frequency analysis involves usually two steps : delineation of homogeneous regions, and regional estimation. In the first step, the focus is on identifying and regrouping sites which seem sufficiently homogeneous or sufficiently similar to the target ungauged site to provide a basis for information transfer. The second step of the analysis consists in inferring flood information (such as quantiles) at the target site using data from the stations identified in the first step of the analysis. Two types of " homogeneous " regions can be proposed : fixed set regions (geographically contiguous or non-contiguous) and neighborhood type of regions. The second type includes the methods of canonical correlation analysis and of the regions of influence. Regional estimation can be accomplished using one of two main approaches : index flood or quantile regression methods.The results of this work indicate that the philosophies of regionalization and the methods utilized in France and Quebec are complementary to each other and are based on different needs and outlooks. While the approaches followed in France are characterized by strong conceptual and geographic aspects with an emphasis on the utilization of information related to other phenomena (such as precipitations), the approaches adopted in Quebec rely on the strength of their statistical and stochastic components and usually condense the spatial and temporal information to a realistic functional form. This dissimilarity in the approaches being followed on either side may be originated by the distinct topographic and climatic characteristics of each region (France and Quebec) and by the differences in basin sizes and hydrometeorologic network densities. The conclusions of the seminar point to the large potential of improvements in regional estimation methods, which may result from an enhanced exchange between scientists from both sides : indeed, there is much to gain from learning about the dissimilarities between the various approaches, comparing their performances, and devising new methods that combine their individual strengths. Hence, the Gradex method for example could benefit from an increased utilization of regional flood information, while flood regionalization methods utilized in Quebec could gain much from the formalization of the use of rainfall information and from the integration of an improved modeling of physical hydrologic phenomena. This should result in the enhancement of the efficiency of regional estimation methods and their ability to handle various practical conditions.It is hoped that this research will contribute towards closing the gap between French and Quebec literature, and more generally between the European and the North American hydrological schools of thought, by narrowing the large literature that is available, by providing the necessary cross-evaluation of regional flood analysis models, and by providing comprehensive propositions for improved approaches for regional hydrologic modeling

Adding epoetin alfa to intense dose-dense adjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer : randomized clinical trial

BACKGROUND: The AGO-ETC trial compared 5-year relapse-free survival of intense dose-dense (IDD) sequential chemotherapy with epirubicin (E), paclitaxel (T), and cyclophosphamide (C) (IDD-ETC) every 2 weeks vs conventional scheduled epirubicin/cyclophosphamide followed by paclitaxel (EC→T) (every 3 weeks) as adjuvant treatment in high-risk breast cancer patients. The objective of this study was to evaluate the safety and efficacy of epoetin alfa in a second randomization of the intense dose-dense arm. METHODS: One thousand two hundred eighty-four patients were enrolled; 658 patients were randomly assigned to the IDD-ETC treatment group. Within the IDD-ETC group, 324 patients were further randomly assigned to the epoetin alfa group, and 319 were randomly assigned to the non-erythropoiesis-stimulating agent (ESA) control group. Primary efficacy endpoints included change in hemoglobin level from baseline to Cycle 9 and the percentage of subjects requiring red blood cell transfusion. Relapse-free survival, overall survival, and intramammary relapse were secondary endpoints estimated with Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression methods. Except for the primary hypothesis, all statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: Epoetin alfa avoided the decrease in hemoglobin level (no decrease in the epoetin alfa group vs -2.20g/dL change for the control group; P < .001) and statistically significantly reduced the percentage of subjects requiring red blood cell transfusion (12.8% vs 28.1%; P < .0001). The incidence of thrombotic events was 7% in the epoetin alfa arm vs 3% in the control arm. After a median follow-up of 62 months, epoetin alfa treatment did not affect overall survival, relapse-free survival, or intramammary relapse. CONCLUSIONS: Epoetin alfa resulted in improved hemoglobin levels and decreased transfusions without an impact on relapse-free or overall survival. However, epoetin alfa had an adverse effect, resulting in increased thrombosis

Low-loss singlemode PECVD silicon nitride photonic wire waveguides for 532-900 nm wavelength window fabricated within a CMOS pilot line

PECVD silicon nitride photonic wire waveguides have been fabricated in a CMOS pilot line. Both clad and unclad single mode wire waveguides were measured at lambda = 532, 780, and 900 nm, respectively. The dependence of loss on wire width, wavelength, and cladding is discussed in detail. Cladded multimode and singlemode waveguides show a loss well below 1 dB/cm in the 532-900 nm wavelength range. For singlemode unclad waveguides, losses < 1 dB/cm were achieved at lambda = 900 nm, whereas losses were measured in the range of 1-3 dB/cm for lambda = 780 and 532 nm, respectively

Beyond time-homogeneity for continuous-time multistate Markov models

Multistate Markov models are a canonical parametric approach for data modeling of observed or latent stochastic processes supported on a finite state space. Continuous-time Markov processes describe data that are observed irregularly over time, as is often the case in longitudinal medical and biological data sets, for example. Assuming that a continuous-time Markov process is time-homogeneous, a closed-form likelihood function can be derived from the Kolmogorov forward equations -- a system of differential equations with a well-known matrix-exponential solution. Unfortunately, however, the forward equations do not admit an analytical solution for continuous-time, time-inhomogeneous Markov processes, and so researchers and practitioners often make the simplifying assumption that the process is piecewise time-homogeneous. In this paper, we provide intuitions and illustrations of the potential biases for parameter estimation that may ensue in the more realistic scenario that the piecewise-homogeneous assumption is violated, and we advocate for a solution for likelihood computation in a truly time-inhomogeneous fashion. Particular focus is afforded to the context of multistate Markov models that allow for state label misclassifications, which applies more broadly to hidden Markov models (HMMs), and Bayesian computations bypass the necessity for computationally demanding numerical gradient approximations for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs)