A Discrete Event Simulation model to evaluate the treatment pathways of patients with Cataract in the United Kingdom

Background The number of people affected by cataract in the United Kingdom (UK) is growing rapidly due to ageing population. As the only way to treat cataract is through surgery, there is a high demand for this type of surgery and figures indicate that it is the most performed type of surgery in the UK. The National Health Service (NHS), which provides free of charge care in the UK, is under huge financial pressure due to budget austerity in the last decade. As the number of people affected by the disease is expected to grow significantly in coming years, the aim of this study is to evaluate whether the introduction of new processes and medical technologies will enable cataract services to cope with the demand within the NHS funding constraints. Methods We developed a Discrete Event Simulation model representing the cataract services pathways at Leicester Royal Infirmary Hospital. The model was inputted with data from national and local sources as well as from a surgery demand forecasting model developed in the study. The model was verified and validated with the participation of the cataract services clinical and management teams. Results Four scenarios involving increased number of surgeries per half-day surgery theatre slot were simulated. Results indicate that the total number of surgeries per year could be increased by 40% at no extra cost. However, the rate of improvement decreases for increased number of surgeries per half-day surgery theatre slot due to a higher number of cancelled surgeries. Productivity is expected to improve as the total number of doctors and nurses hours will increase by 5 and 12% respectively. However, non-human resources such as pre-surgery rooms and post-surgery recovery chairs are under-utilized across all scenarios. Conclusions Using new processes and medical technologies for cataract surgery is a promising way to deal with the expected higher demand especially as this could be achieved with limited impact on costs. Non-human resources capacity need to be evenly levelled across the surgery pathway to improve their utilisation. The performance of cataract services could be improved by better communication with and proactive management of patients.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Lithic technological responses to Late Pleistocene glacial cycling at Pinnacle Point Site 5-6, South Africa

There are multiple hypotheses for human responses to glacial cycling in the Late Pleistocene, including changes in population size, interconnectedness, and mobility. Lithic technological analysis informs us of human responses to environmental change because lithic assemblage characteristics are a reflection of raw material transport, reduction, and discard behaviors that depend on hunter-gatherer social and economic decisions. Pinnacle Point Site 5-6 (PP5-6), Western Cape, South Africa is an ideal locality for examining the influence of glacial cycling on early modern human behaviors because it preserves a long sequence spanning marine isotope stages (MIS) 5, 4, and 3 and is associated with robust records of paleoenvironmental change. The analysis presented here addresses the question, what, if any, lithic assemblage traits at PP5-6 represent changing behavioral responses to the MIS 5-4-3 interglacial-glacial cycle? It statistically evaluates changes in 93 traits with no a priori assumptions about which traits may significantly associate with MIS. In contrast to other studies that claim that there is little relationship between broad-scale patterns of climate change and lithic technology, we identified the following characteristics that are associated with MIS 4: increased use of quartz, increased evidence for outcrop sources of quartzite and silcrete, increased evidence for earlier stages of reduction in silcrete, evidence for increased flaking efficiency in all raw material types, and changes in tool types and function for silcrete. Based on these results, we suggest that foragers responded to MIS 4 glacial environmental conditions at PP5-6 with increased population or group sizes, 'place provisioning', longer and/or more intense site occupations, and decreased residential mobility. Several other traits, including silcrete frequency, do not exhibit an association with MIS. Backed pieces, once they appear in the PP5-6 record during MIS 4, persist through MIS 3. Changing paleoenvironments explain some, but not all temporal technological variability at PP5-6.Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada; NORAM; American-Scandinavian Foundation; Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia [SFRH/BPD/73598/2010]; IGERT [DGE 0801634]; Hyde Family Foundations; Institute of Human Origins; National Science Foundation [BCS-9912465, BCS-0130713, BCS-0524087, BCS-1138073]; John Templeton Foundation to the Institute of Human Origins at Arizona State Universit

On the Coupling Time of the Heat-Bath Process for the Fortuin–Kasteleyn Random–Cluster Model

We consider the coupling from the past implementation of the random-cluster heat-bath process, and study its random running time, or coupling time. We focus on hypercubic lattices embedded on tori, in dimensions one to three, with cluster fugacity at least one. We make a number of conjectures regarding the asymptotic behaviour of the coupling time, motivated by rigorous results in one dimension and Monte Carlo simulations in dimensions two and three. Amongst our findings, we observe that, for generic parameter values, the distribution of the appropriately standardized coupling time converges to a Gumbel distribution, and that the standard deviation of the coupling time is asymptotic to an explicit universal constant multiple of the relaxation time. Perhaps surprisingly, we observe these results to hold both off criticality, where the coupling time closely mimics the coupon collector's problem, and also at the critical point, provided the cluster fugacity is below the value at which the transition becomes discontinuous. Finally, we consider analogous questions for the single-spin Ising heat-bath process

The NTD Nanoscope: potential applications and implementations

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Nanopore transduction detection (NTD) offers prospects for a number of highly sensitive and discriminative applications, including: (i) single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) detection; (ii) targeted DNA re-sequencing; (iii) protein isoform assaying; and (iv) biosensing via antibody or aptamer coupled molecules. Nanopore event transduction involves single-molecule biophysics, engineered information flows, and nanopore cheminformatics. The NTD Nanoscope has seen limited use in the scientific community, however, due to lack of information about potential applications, and lack of availability for the device itself. Meta Logos Inc. is developing both pre-packaged device platforms and component-level (unassembled) kit platforms (the latter described here). In both cases a lipid bi-layer workstation is first established, then augmentations and operational protocols are provided to have a nanopore transduction detector. In this paper we provide an overview of the NTD Nanoscope applications and implementations. The NTD Nanoscope Kit, in particular, is a component-level reproduction of the standard NTD device used in previous research papers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The NTD Nanoscope method is shown to functionalize a single nanopore with a channel current modulator that is designed to transduce events, such as binding to a specific target. To expedite set-up in new lab settings, the calibration and troubleshooting for the NTD Nanoscope kit components and signal processing software, the NTD Nanoscope Kit, is designed to include a set of test buffers and control molecules based on experiments described in previous NTD papers (the model systems briefly described in what follows). The description of the Server-interfacing for advanced signal processing support is also briefly mentioned.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>SNP assaying, SNP discovery, DNA sequencing and RNA-seq methods are typically limited by the accuracy of the error rate of the enzymes involved, such as methods involving the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) enzyme. The NTD Nanoscope offers a means to obtain higher accuracy as it is a single-molecule method that does not inherently involve use of enzymes, using a functionalized nanopore instead.</p

Convergent functional genomics of anxiety disorders: translational identification of genes, biomarkers, pathways and mechanisms

Anxiety disorders are prevalent and disabling yet understudied from a genetic standpoint, compared with other major psychiatric disorders such as bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. The fact that they are more common, diverse and perceived as embedded in normal life may explain this relative oversight. In addition, as for other psychiatric disorders, there are technical challenges related to the identification and validation of candidate genes and peripheral biomarkers. Human studies, particularly genetic ones, are susceptible to the issue of being underpowered, because of genetic heterogeneity, the effect of variable environmental exposure on gene expression, and difficulty of accrual of large, well phenotyped cohorts. Animal model gene expression studies, in a genetically homogeneous and experimentally tractable setting, can avoid artifacts and provide sensitivity of detection. Subsequent translational integration of the animal model datasets with human genetic and gene expression datasets can ensure cross-validatory power and specificity for illness. We have used a pharmacogenomic mouse model (involving treatments with an anxiogenic drug—yohimbine, and an anti-anxiety drug—diazepam) as a discovery engine for identification of anxiety candidate genes as well as potential blood biomarkers. Gene expression changes in key brain regions for anxiety (prefrontal cortex, amygdala and hippocampus) and blood were analyzed using a convergent functional genomics (CFG) approach, which integrates our new data with published human and animal model data, as a translational strategy of cross-matching and prioritizing findings. Our work identifies top candidate genes (such as FOS, GABBR1, NR4A2, DRD1, ADORA2A, QKI, RGS2, PTGDS, HSPA1B, DYNLL2, CCKBR and DBP), brain–blood biomarkers (such as FOS, QKI and HSPA1B), pathways (such as cAMP signaling) and mechanisms for anxiety disorders—notably signal transduction and reactivity to environment, with a prominent role for the hippocampus. Overall, this work complements our previous similar work (on bipolar mood disorders and schizophrenia) conducted over the last decade. It concludes our programmatic first pass mapping of the genomic landscape of the triad of major psychiatric disorder domains using CFG, and permitted us to uncover the significant genetic overlap between anxiety and these other major psychiatric disorders, notably the under-appreciated overlap with schizophrenia. PDE10A, TAC1 and other genes uncovered by our work provide a molecular basis for the frequently observed clinical co-morbidity and interdependence between anxiety and other major psychiatric disorders, and suggest schizo-anxiety as a possible new nosological domain

Understanding acute ankle ligamentous sprain injury in sports

This paper summarizes the current understanding on acute ankle sprain injury, which is the most common acute sport trauma, accounting for about 14% of all sport-related injuries. Among, 80% are ligamentous sprains caused by explosive inversion or supination. The injury motion often happens at the subtalar joint and tears the anterior talofibular ligament (ATFL) which possesses the lowest ultimate load among the lateral ligaments at the ankle. For extrinsic risk factors to ankle sprain injury, prescribing orthosis decreases the risk while increased exercise intensity in soccer raises the risk. For intrinsic factors, a foot size with increased width, an increased ankle eversion to inversion strength, plantarflexion strength and ratio between dorsiflexion and plantarflexion strength, and limb dominance could increase the ankle sprain injury risk. Players with a previous sprain history, players wearing shoes with air cells, players who do not stretch before exercising, players with inferior single leg balance, and overweight players are 4.9, 4.3, 2.6, 2.4 and 3.9 times more likely to sustain an ankle sprain injury. The aetiology of most ankle sprain injuries is incorrect foot positioning at landing – a medially-deviated vertical ground reaction force causes an explosive supination or inversion moment at the subtalar joint in a short time (about 50 ms). Another aetiology is the delayed reaction time of the peroneal muscles at the lateral aspect of the ankle (60–90 ms). The failure supination or inversion torque is about 41–45 Nm to cause ligamentous rupture in simulated spraining tests on cadaver. A previous case report revealed that the ankle joint reached 48 degrees inversion and 10 degrees internal rotation during an accidental grade I ankle ligamentous sprain injury during a dynamic cutting trial in laboratory. Diagnosis techniques and grading systems vary, but the management of ankle ligamentous sprain injury is mainly conservative. Immobilization should not be used as it results in joint stiffness, muscle atrophy and loss of proprioception. Traditional Chinese medicine such as herbs, massage and acupuncture were well applied in China in managing sports injuries, and was reported to be effective in relieving pain, reducing swelling and edema, and restoring normal ankle function. Finally, the best practice of sports medicine would be to prevent the injury. Different previous approaches, including designing prophylactice devices, introducing functional interventions, as well as change of games rules were highlighted. This paper allows the readers to catch up with the previous researches on ankle sprain injury, and facilitate the future research idea on sport-related ankle sprain injury

Persistent Place-Making in Prehistory: the Creation, Maintenance, and Transformation of an Epipalaeolithic Landscape

Most archaeological projects today integrate, at least to some degree, how past people engaged with their surroundings, including both how they strategized resource use, organized technological production, or scheduled movements within a physical environment, as well as how they constructed cosmologies around or created symbolic connections to places in the landscape. However, there are a multitude of ways in which archaeologists approach the creation, maintenance, and transformation of human-landscape interrelationships. This paper explores some of these approaches for reconstructing the Epipalaeolithic (ca. 23,000–11,500&nbsp;years BP) landscape of Southwest Asia, using macro- and microscale geoarchaeological approaches to examine how everyday practices leave traces of human-landscape interactions in northern and eastern Jordan. The case studies presented here demonstrate that these Epipalaeolithic groups engaged in complex and far-reaching social landscapes. Examination of the Early and Middle Epipalaeolithic (EP) highlights that the notion of “Neolithization” is somewhat misleading as many of the features we use to define this transition were already well-established patterns of behavior by the Neolithic. Instead, these features and practices were enacted within a hunter-gatherer world and worldview

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Background: Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. // Methods: We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung's disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. // Findings: We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung's disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middle-income countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in low-income countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. // Interpretation: Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030