A Bayesian palaeoenvironmental transfer function model for acidified lakes

A Bayesian approach to palaeoecological environmental reconstruction deriving from the unimodal responses generally exhibited by organisms to an environmental gradient is described. The approach uses Bayesian model selection to calculate a collection of probability-weighted, species-specific response curves (SRCs) for each taxon within a training set, with an explicit treatment for zero abundances. These SRCs are used to reconstruct the environmental variable from sub-fossilised assemblages. The approach enables a substantial increase in computational efficiency (several orders of magnitude) over existing Bayesian methodologies. The model is developed from the Surface Water Acidification Programme (SWAP) training set and is demonstrated to exhibit comparable predictive power to existing Weighted Averaging and Maximum Likelihood methodologies, though with improvements in bias; the additional explanatory power of the Bayesian approach lies in an explicit calculation of uncertainty for each individual reconstruction. The model is applied to reconstruct the Holocene acidification history of the Round Loch of Glenhead, including a reconstruction of recent recovery derived from sediment trap data.The Bayesian reconstructions display similar trends to conventional (Weighted Averaging Partial Least Squares) reconstructions but provide a better reconstruction of extreme pH and are more sensitive to small changes in diatom assemblages. The validity of the posteriors as an apparently meaningful representation of assemblage-specific uncertainty and the high computational efficiency of the approach open up the possibility of highly constrained multiproxy reconstructions

Variability in the performance of preventive services and in the degree of control of identified health problems: A primary care study protocol

Background: Preventive activities carried out in primary care have important variability that makes necessary to know which factors have an impact in order to establish future strategies for improvement. The present study has three objectives: 1) To describe the variability in the implementation of 7 preventive services (screening for smoking status, alcohol abuse, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, obesity, influenza and tetanus immunization) and to determine their related factors; 2) To describe the degree of control of 5 identified health problems (smoking, alcohol abuse, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and obesity); 3) To calculate intraclass correlation coefficients. Design: Multi-centered cross-sectional study of a randomised sample of primary health care teams from 3 regions of Spain designed to analyse variability and related factors of 7 selected preventive services in years 2006 and 2007. At the end of 2008, we will perform a cross-sectional study of a cohort of patients attended in 2006 or 2007 to asses the degree of control of 5 identified health problems. All subjects older than16 years assigned to a randomised sample of 22 computerized primary health care teams and attended during the study period are included in each region providing a sample with more than 850.000 subjects. The main outcome measures will be implementation of 7 preventive services and control of 5 identified health problems. Furthermore, there will be 3 levels of data collection: 1) Patient level (age, gender, morbidity, preventive services, attendance); 2) Health-care professional level (professional characteristics, years working at the team, workload); 3) Team level (characteristics, electronic clinical record system). Data will be transferred from electronic clinical records to a central database with prior encryption and dissociation of subject, professional and team identity. Global and regional analysis will be performed including standard analysis for primary health care teams and health-care professional level. Linear and logistic regression multilevel analysis adjusted for individual and cluster variables will also be performed. Variability in the number of preventive services implemented will be calculated with Poisson multilevel models. Team and health-care professional will be considered random effects. Intraclass correlation coefficients, standard error and variance components for the different outcome measures will be calculated

‘‘Beet-ing’’ the Mountain: A Review of the Physiological and Performance Effects of Dietary Nitrate Supplementation at Simulated and Terrestrial Altitude

Exposure to altitude results in multiple physiological consequences. These include, but are not limited to, a reduced maximal oxygen consumption, drop in arterial oxygen saturation, and increase in muscle metabolic perturbations at a fixed sub-maximal work rate. Exercise capacity during fixed work rate or incremental exercise and time-trial performance are also impaired at altitude relative to sea-level. Recently, dietary nitrate (NO3-) supplementation has attracted considerable interest as a nutritional aid during altitude exposure. In this review, we summarise and critically evaluate the physiological and performance effects of dietary NO3- supplementation during exposure to simulated and terrestrial altitude. Previous investigations at simulated altitude indicate that NO3- supplementation may reduce the oxygen cost of exercise, elevate arterial and tissue oxygen saturation, improve muscle metabolic function, and enhance exercise capacity/ performance. Conversely, current evidence suggests that NO3- supplementation does not augment the training response at simulated altitude. Few studies have evaluated the effects of NO3- at terrestrial altitude. Current evidence indicates potential improvements in endothelial function at terrestrial altitude following NO3- supplementation. No effects of NO3- supplementation have been observed on oxygen consumption or arterial oxygen saturation at terrestrial altitude, although further research is warranted. Limitations of the present body of literature are discussed, and directions for future research are provided