A media framing analysis of urban flooding in Nigeria: current narratives and implications for policy

© 2017, The Author(s). A critical element of current flood management is the importance of engaging key policy actors when policy decisions are to be made. However, there is still only limited understanding of how narratives of flood management actors may influence flood management policies, even though there is a suggestion that actors can strategically use their narratives to influence policy directions. In a developing country like Nigeria, there are still questions around lessons that can be learnt from understanding the narratives of policy actors, to unravel the complex nature of strategies and policy directions in managing urban floods. To help fill these gaps, this paper uses quantitative content analysis to explore the frame of five policy actor groups (government, local communities, business, multilateral organisations and non-governmental organisations (NGOs)) as expressed in local and national newspapers between 2012 and 2016 to understand their narratives of causes and strategies to solve the problem of urban flooding in Nigeria. The narratives of government, local communities and businesses align with the premise that flooding can and should be prevented whilst that of multilateral and business actors champion adaptation strategies on the basis that flooding is inevitable and hence more energy should be directed at ‘living with water’—emergency response, damage reduction and the aftermath. The study also identified areas of potential consensus and conflict between direct actors such as government and local communities on the one hand and funders on the other. Better discussion among actors aiding understanding of contemporary thinking and local realities will aid policy-making and policy implementation in the Nigerian context. An important step will be in the collaborative design of an urgently needed ‘Nigerian policy on flooding’ which currently does not exist

Extracellular matrix formation enhances the ability of streptococcus pneumoniae to cause invasive disease

Extent: 17p.During infection, pneumococci exist mainly in sessile biofilms rather than in planktonic form, except during sepsis. However, relatively little is known about how biofilms contribute to pneumococcal pathogenesis. Here, we carried out a biofilm assay on opaque and transparent variants of a clinical serotype 19F strain WCH159. After 4 days incubation, scanning electron microscopy revealed that opaque biofilm bacteria produced an extracellular matrix, whereas the transparent variant did not. The opaque biofilm-derived bacteria translocated from the nasopharynx to the lungs and brain of mice, and showed 100- fold greater in vitro adherence to A549 cells than transparent bacteria. Microarray analysis of planktonic and sessile bacteria from transparent and opaque variants showed differential gene expression in two operons: the lic operon, which is involved in choline uptake, and in the two-component system, ciaRH. Mutants of these genes did not form an extracellular matrix, could not translocate from the nasopharynx to the lungs or the brain, and adhered poorly to A549 cells. We conclude that only the opaque phenotype is able to form extracellular matrix, and that the lic operon and ciaRH contribute to this process. We propose that during infection, extracellular matrix formation enhances the ability of pneumococci to cause invasive disease.Claudia Trappetti, Abiodun D. Ogunniyi, Marco R. Oggioni and James C. Pato

The transport of atmospheric NOx and HNO3 over Cape Town

Cape Town, the most popular tourist city in Africa, usually experiences air pollution with unpleasant odour in winter. Previous studies have associated the pollution with local emission of pollutants within the city. The present study examines the transport of atmospheric pollutants (NOx and HNO3) over South Africa and shows how the transport of pollutants from the Mpumalanga Highveld, a major South African industrial area, may contribute to the pollution in Cape Town. The study analysed observation data (2001–2008) from the Cape Town air-quality network and simulation data (2001–2004) from a regional climate model (RegCM) over southern Africa. The simulation accounts for the influence of complex topography, atmospheric conditions, and atmospheric chemistry on emission and transport of pollutants over southern Africa. Flux budget analysis was used to examine whether Cape Town is a source or sink for NOx and HNO3 during the extreme pollution events. The results show that extreme pollution events in Cape Town are associated with the lower level (surface – 850 hPa) transport of NOx from the Mpumalanga Highveld to Cape Town, and with a tongue of high concentration of HNO3 that extends from the Mpumalanga Highveld to Cape Town along the south coast of South Africa. The prevailing atmospheric conditions during the extreme pollution events feature an upper-level (700 hPa) anticyclone over South Africa and a lower-level col over Cape Town. The anticyclone induces a strong subsidence motion, which prevents vertical mixing of the pollutants and caps high concentration of pollutants close to the surface as they are transported from the Mpumalanga Highveld toward Cape Town. The col accumulates the pollutants over the city. This study shows that Cape Town can be a sink for the NOx and HNO3 during extreme pollution events and suggests that the accumulation of pollutants transported from other areas (e.g. the Mpumalanga Highveld) may contribute to the air pollution in Cape Town.The project was supported with grants from the National Research Foundation (NRF, South Africa) and the Applied Centre for Climate and Earth Sciences (ACCESS). The third author was supported with grants from the African Centre for Cities (ACC)

Capability of CAM5.1 in simulating maximum air temperature patterns over West Africa during boreal spring

This study classifies maximum air temperature patterns over West Africa into six groups and evaluates the capability of a global climate model (Community Atmospheric Model version 5.1; CAM) to simulate them. We analyzed 45-year (1961–2005) multi-ensemble (50 members) simulations from CAM and compared the results with those of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and the twentieth Century Reanalysis data sets. Using Self Organizing Map algorithm to classify the spatial patterns of maximum air temperature during boreal spring, the study reveals the temperature patterns that CAM can simulate well and those the model struggles to reproduce. The results show that the best agreements between the composites of observation and CAM occur in the first temperature pattern group (which features positive temperatures anomalies over the Sahel) and Node 2 (which features near-normal temperature) pattern of the third group. CAM succeeded in reproducing some of the associated regional atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamic features in winds (horizontal and vertical), temperature fields, the cloud fractions, and the mean sea-level pressure. Although CAM struggles to capture the relationship between air temperature patterns and tele-connection indices during the boreal spring season over West Africa, it agrees with observations that temperature patterns over the sub-region cannot be associated with a single climate index. An ensemble member (SIM48) captures the inter-annual variation of the observed temperaure patterns with high sycronization (ɳ > 44%), much better than that of ensembles mean (ɳ < 30%). SIM48 also captures adequately four of the spatial patterns in comparison to three captured by the ensembles mean. This indicates that, for better seasonal forecasts and more reliable future climate projections, the practice whereby an ensemble mean is based on uniformly averaging the members rather than the performance of individual ensemble members needs to be reviewed. The results of the study may be used to improve the perfomance of CAM over West Africa, thereby strengthening the on-going efforts to include CAM as part of multi-model forecasting system over West Africa

Capability of CAM5.1 in simulating maximum air temperature patterns over West Africa during boreal spring

This study classifies maximum air temperature patterns over West Africa into six groups and evaluates the capability of a global climate model (Community Atmospheric Model version 5.1; CAM) to simulate them. We analyzed 45-year (1961–2005) multi-ensemble (50 members) simulations from CAM and compared the results with those of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and the twentieth Century Reanalysis data sets. Using Self Organizing Map algorithm to classify the spatial patterns of maximum air temperature during boreal spring, the study reveals the temperature patterns that CAM can simulate well and those the model struggles to reproduce. The results show that the best agreements between the composites of observation and CAM occur in the first temperature pattern group (which features positive temperatures anomalies over the Sahel) and Node 2 (which features near-normal temperature) pattern of the third group. CAM succeeded in reproducing some of the associated regional atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamic features in winds (horizontal and vertical), temperature fields, the cloud fractions, and the mean sea-level pressure. Although CAM struggles to capture the relationship between air temperature patterns and tele-connection indices during the boreal spring season over West Africa, it agrees with observations that temperature patterns over the sub-region cannot be associated with a single climate index. An ensemble member (SIM48) captures the inter-annual variation of the observed temperaure patterns with high sycronization (ɳ > 44%), much better than that of ensembles mean (ɳ < 30%). SIM48 also captures adequately four of the spatial patterns in comparison to three captured by the ensembles mean. This indicates that, for better seasonal forecasts and more reliable future climate projections, the practice whereby an ensemble mean is based on uniformly averaging the members rather than the performance of individual ensemble members needs to be reviewed. The results of the study may be used to improve the perfomance of CAM over West Africa, thereby strengthening the on-going efforts to include CAM as part of multi-model forecasting system over West Africa

13. The late onset of the 2015 wet season in Nigeria

We find no evidence that the delayed onset of the wet season over Nigeria during April - May 2015 was made more likely by anthropogenic influences or anomalous sea surface temperatures

13. The late onset of the 2015 wet season in Nigeria

We find no evidence that the delayed onset of the wet season over Nigeria during April - May 2015 was made more likely by anthropogenic influences or anomalous sea surface temperatures