Surrogate-Assisted Artificial Immune Systems for Expensive Optimization Problems

Non

Modelling risk for commodities in Brazil: an application to live cattle spot and futures prices

This study analysed a series of live cattle spot and futures prices from the Boi Gordo Index (BGI) in Brazil. The objective was to develop a model that best portrays this commodity’s behaviour to estimate futures prices more accurately. The database created contained 2,010 daily entries in which trade in futures contracts occurred, as well as BGI spot sales in the market, from 1 December 2006 to 30 April 2015. One of the most important reasons why this type of risk needs to be measured is to set loss limits. To identify patterns in price behaviour in order to improve future transactions’ results, investors must analyse fluctuations in assets’ value for longer periods. Bibliographic research revealed that no other study has conducted a comprehensive analysis of this commodity using this approach. Cattle ranching is big business in Brazil given that in 2017, this sector moved 523.25 billion Brazilian reals (about 130.5 billion United States dollars). In that year, agribusiness contributed 22% of Brazil’s total gross domestic product. Using the proposed risk modelling technique, economic agents can make the best decision about which options within these investors’ reach produce more effective risk management. The methodology was based on Holt-Winters exponential smoothing algorithm, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), ARIMA with exogenous inputs, generalised autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic and generalised autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models. More specifically, 5 different methods were applied that allowed a comparison of 12 different models as ways to portray and predict the BGI commodity’s behaviour. The results show that GARMA with order c(2,1) and without intercept is the best model..info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Modelling risk for commodities in Brazil: An application for live cattle spot and futures prices

This study analyses a series of live cattle spot and futures prices from the Boi Gordo Index (BGI) in Brazil. The objective is to develop a model that best portrays this commodity’s behaviour to estimate futures prices more accurately. The database created contains 2010 daily entries in which trade in futures contracts occurs, as well as BGI spot sales in the market, from 1 December 2006 to 30 April 2015. One of the most important reasons why this type of risk needs to be measured is to set loss limits. To identify patterns in price behaviour in order to improve future transaction results, investors must analyse fluctuations in asset values for longer periods. Bibliographic research reveals that no other study has conducted a comprehensive analysis of this commodity using this approach. Cattle ranching is big business in Brazil given that in 2021, this sector moved BRL 913.14 billion (USD 169.29 billion). In that year, agribusiness contributed 26.6% of Brazil’s total gross domestic product. Using the proposed risk modelling technique, economic agents can make the best decision about which options within these investors’ reach produce more effective risk management. The methodology is based on Holt–Winters exponential smoothing algorithm, autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA), ARIMA with exogenous inputs, generalised autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic and generalised autoregressive moving-average (GARMA) models. More specifically, five different methods are applied that allow a comparison of 12 different models as ways to portray and predict the BGI commodity behaviours. The results show that GARMA with order c(2,1) and without intercept is the best model. Investors equipped with such precise modelling insights stand at an advantageous position in the market, promoting informed investment decisions and optimising returns.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Modelling risk for commodities in Brazil: an application to live cattle spot and futures prices

This study analysed a series of live cattle spot and futures prices from the Boi Gordo Index (BGI) in Brazil. The objective was to develop a model that best portrays this commodity’s behaviour to estimate futures prices more accurately. The database created contained 2,010 daily entries in which trade in futures contracts occurred, as well as BGI spot sales in the market, from 1 December 2006 to 30 April 2015. One of the most important reasons why this type of risk needs to be measured is to set loss limits. To identify patterns in price behaviour in order to improve future transactions’ results, investors must analyse fluctuations in assets’ value for longer periods. Bibliographic research revealed that no other study has conducted a comprehensive analysis of this commodity using this approach. Cattle ranching is big business in Brazil given that in 2017, this sector moved 523.25 billion Brazilian reals (about 130.5 billion United States dollars). In that year, agribusiness contributed 22% of Brazil’s total gross domestic product. Using the proposed risk modelling technique, economic agents can make the best decision about which options within these investors’ reach produce more effective risk management. The methodology was based on Holt-Winters exponential smoothing algorithm, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), ARIMA with exogenous inputs, generalised autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic and generalised autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models. More specifically, 5 different methods were applied that allowed a comparison of 12 different models as ways to portray and predict the BGI commodity’s behaviour. The results show that GARMA with order c(2,1) and without intercept is the best model..info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Caracterização de linhagens de sorgo granífero [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] para tolerância ao alumínio.

Com o avanço do cultivo de sorgo no cerrado brasileiro observa-se a crescente necessidade do estudo e seleção de genótipos mais tolerantes às condições desta região, que se caracteriza por apresentar solos e subsolos com baixo pH e alumínio solúvel em níveis tóxicos. Para tanto, técnicas de melhoramento genético vêm sendo empregadas na tentativa de solucionar ou minimizar os efeitos dessas condições sobre o desenvolvimento das culturas. Este ensaio teve como finalidade caracterizar oito linhagens de sorgo granífero contrastantes para a tolerância ao alumínio tóxico, que foram desenvolvidas para servirem como ferramentas na avaliação de tolerância ao Al no campo. Estas linhagens possibilitarão a criação de híbridos isogênicos com zero, um ou dois alelos para a tolerância ao Al tóxico. A caracterização destas linhagens foi realizada em solução nutritiva na Embrapa Milho e Sorgo, em Sete Lagoas/MG e todas as análises estatísticas foram realizadas utilizando-se o programa Genes

Development of IoT Smart Greenhouse System for Hydroponic Gardens

This study focused on the development of a smart greenhouse system for hydroponic gardens with the adaptation of the Internet of Things and monitored through mobile as one of the solutions towards the negative effects of the worlds booming population, never ending - shrinking of arable lands, and the effect of climate change drastically in our environments. To achieve the goal of the study, the researchers created an actual hydroponic greenhouse system with completely developing plants, and automation in examining and monitoring the water pH level, light, water, and greenhouse temperature, as well as humidity which is linked to ThingSpeak. The developed SMART Greenhouse monitoring system was tested and evaluated to confirm its reliability, functions, and usability under ISO 9126 evaluation criteria. The respondents who include casual plant owners and experts in hydroponic gardening able to test and evaluate the prototype, and the mobile application to monitor the parameters with the results of 7.77 for pH level, 83 for light, 27.94 deg C for water temperature, 27 deg C for greenhouse temperature, and 75% for humidity with a descriptive result in both software and hardware as Very Good with a mean average of 4.06 which means that the developed technology is useful and recommended. The SMART Greenhouse System for Hydroponic Garden is used as an alternative tool, solution, and innovation technique towards food shortages due to climate change, land shortages, and low farming environments. The proponents highly suggest the use of solar energy for the pump power, prototype wiring should be improved, the usage of a high-end model of Arduino to address more sensors and devices for a larger arsenal of data collected, enclosures of the device to ensure safety, and mobile application updates such as bug fixes and have an e-manual of the whole systems

Desempenho de novilhos Simental alimentados com silagem de sorgo, cana-de-açúcar e palhada de arroz tratada ou não com amônia anidra.

Avaliou-se o desempenho de novilhos alimentados com dietas contendo palhada de arroz amonizada, palhada de arroz + uréia, cana-de-açúcar + uréia e silagem de sorgo. Utilizaram-se 16 novilhos, Simental PO, com peso vivo médio de 400 kg, distribuídos em delineamento inteiramente casualizado. O experimento teve duração de 88 dias, sendo 15 de adaptação e 61 dias de avaliação, divididos em três períodos de 21 dias. O consumo total de MS, que variou de 7,1 a 10,0 kg/dia, diferiu entre as dietas, registrando-se maiores consumos para os animais que receberam dietas contendo palhada de arroz amonizada e silagem de sorgo, que, por sua vez, não diferiram entre si. A conversão alimentar não diferiu entre as diferentes dietas, registrando-se valor médio de 6,6. Observou-se maior ganho de peso para os animais que receberam palhada de arroz amonizada (1,59 kg/dia) em relação à palhada mais uréia (1,25 kg/dia). O efeito da amonização, melhorando o valor nutritivo da palhada de arroz, resultou em maior consumo voluntário deste volumoso e, conseqüentemente, em maior ganho diário de peso vivo dos animais, em relação à palhada de arroz não-tratada e suplementada com uréia

A model of a small open economy integrated in a monetary union

This paper develops a model of a small open economy integrated in a monetary union, which is a nontrivial technical extension of the existing small open economy model. The model is used to study the monetary transmission mechanism in Portugal.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio