The Macroeconomics Shocks and the Brazilian Agricultural Price Evolution – A VAR Analysis Approach

The findings presented in this paper come from our study of the effects of Brazilian macroeconomic policy on the Brazilian Farm [product] Price Index using an adapted version of Frankel’s (1986 & 2006) theoretical model. The study examined the connection between Brazilian farm prices and external variables (worldwide importation of agribusiness products, international commodity prices, and foreign real interest rates) and between Brazilian farm prices and domestic variables (GDP, the real exchange rate, and local interest rates).

Aspectos processuais da recuperação judicial

Divulgação dos SUMÁRIOS das obras recentemente incorporadas ao acervo da Biblioteca Ministro Oscar Saraiva do STJ. Em respeito à lei de Direitos Autorais, não disponibilizamos a obra na íntegra.Localização na estante: 347.736(81) B277

The Macroeconomics Shocks and the Brazilian Agricultural Price Evolution - A VAR Analysis Approach

The findings presented in this paper come from our study of the effects of Brazilian macroeconomic policy on the Brazilian Farm [product] Price Index using an adapted version of Frankel's (1986 & 2006) theoretical model. The study examined the connection between Brazilian farm prices and external variables (worldwide importation of agribusiness products, international commodity prices, and foreign real interest rates) and between Brazilian farm prices and domestic variables (GDP, the real exchange rate, and local interest rates)

Diversification as a Form of Risk Management in Agriculture

The objective of this study is to show the importance of diversification in the risk management process. The study areas are: Mato Grosso, with large properties, and Rio Grande do Sul with small. The developed activities are annual cultures and cattle for slaughter. The hypotheses of the work are: a) rural producers diversify their activities using modern techniques. b) Diversification has been efficient in the producers' risks reduction. c) Producers tend be as effective as possible, though they differ in the rates of risk aversion. The MOTAD and E-V models were used.Farm Management,

Environmental regulation and international trade patterns for agro-industrial under a South-North Perspective

This paper aims at examining the relation between the international trade and the environment, particularly focused on sensitive agribusiness sectors. It consists on an empirical test to the conflicting positions supported by economists, some following the traditional approach (trade-off or neoclassical), while others supporting the Porter’s hypothesis, which considers that impacts of the stricter environmental regulation can benefit the trade competitiveness. A Heckscher-Ohlin- Vanek model was applied to net exports as the dependent variable. The agricultural products analyzed were total agriculture, rice, maize, soybean, wheat, dairy and swine; run for 97 countries, divided as developing and developed, in a cross-section approach. This modeling allows including the environmental endowment as explanatory variables. Moreover the Environmental Performance Index (Esty et al, 2008) was also tried as explanatory variables in order to catch any effect of the environmental regulation on the trade patterns. Results were not conclusively as they show that the net exports of the selected products, considered environmentally sensitive, can be affected even positively or negatively (neoclassical approach) by the environmental regulation. The results depend on the products. A remarkable outcome to highlight is that the dummy for developing countries and developed countries was significant, pointing that for rice, for example, it makes difference being a developing country, as well as it does for wheat, being a developed country.Trade, environmental regulation, agribusiness, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade,

The Determinants of the Brazilian Farm Prices

The findings presented in this paper come from our study of the effects of Brazilian macroeconomic policy on the Brazilian Farm [product] Price Index using an adapted version of Frankel’s (1986 & 2006) theoretical model. The study examined the connection between Brazilian farm prices and external variables (worldwide importation of agribusiness products, international commodity prices, and foreign real interest rates) and between Brazilian farm prices and domestic variables (GDP, the real exchange rate, and local interest rates).Brazilian farm prices, interest rate differentials, international commodity prices and exchange rate., Agribusiness, Political Economy, Q, E4, E5,

As transferências voluntárias para consórcios municipais e a influência político partidária nas contratações

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade, Departamento de Economia, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Econômicas, 2019.Dentre as diversas formas de transferências fiscais da União para Estados e Municípios destacam-se as transferências voluntárias como uma oportunidade de investimento para os municípios devido aos comprometimentos legais aos quais seus orçamentos estão submetidos. A formação de Consórcios Municipais para captar esses recursos é uma estratégia que pode sofrer influência política no momento da contratação da proposta. Foi investigada essa possível influência verificando se nas propostas dos consórcios nos quais havia maior proporção de Prefeitos Municipais que pertenciam ao mesmo partido do Presidente da República houve maior contratação; no período de 2010 a 2015. No estudo não foi encontrada nenhuma influência ou beneficiamento pelo alinhamento partidário nas contratações.Among the various forms of fiscal transfer from the Union to states and municipalities, voluntary transfers stand out as an investment opportunity for the municipalities, due to the legal commitments to which their budgets are submitted. The formation of Municipal Consortiums to capture these resources is a strategy that can undergo political influence at the moment of the proposal. This possible influence was investigated by verifying if the proposals of the consortia that had a greater proportion of municipal mayors that belonged to the same party of the President of the Republic were more contracted, in the period from 2010 to 2015. In the study, no influence or improvement was found for party alignment in hirings

A balança comercial do agronegócio brasileiro de 1989 a 2005

Este trabalho analisa a contribuição do agronegócio para o saldo comercial do Brasil. Uma nova classificação de balança comercial do agronegócio foi criada e usada para analisar os lados dos produtos exportados (representados pelos produtos agrícolas, produtos de origem animal e alimentos industrializados) e dos insumos importados (representados pelos fertilizantes) para o período de 1989 a 2005. Foram elaborados modelos de importação e exportação a fim de retratar e explicar o comportamento dessas variáveis, empregando a Análise de Auto-Regressões Vetoriais (Vector Autoregression Analysis - VAR). Pôde-se observar que um aumento de 1% na atratividade - dada pelo produto do câmbio e dos preços externos - impulsiona as exportações de produtos agrícolas não processados em 1,71% imediatamente, estabilizando-se em 2% após alguns trimestres. A atratividade explica de 60% a 74% da variância dos erros de previsão dessas exportações. Nota-se que uma desvalorização cambial, por exemplo, aumenta mais as exportações de produtos do que as importações de fertilizantes. Além disso, um crescimento de 1% no PIB doméstico exerce impacto expressivo (convergindo em -1,7%) de contenção das exportações dos produtos agrícolas.This study aims to analyze the agribusiness contribution to Brazil's trade balance. A new classification of the agribusiness trade balance was proposed and used to analyze the aspects of the exported products - agricultural products, products of animal origin, industrialized foods and imported inputs - represented by fertilizers. Imports and exports vector autoregression models were used to explain the behavior of these variables. An increase of 1% in the attractiveness - product of the exchange rate by the international prices - boosts immediately the exports of non processed agricultural products by 1.71%, stabilizing at 2% after some trimesters. The attractiveness explains 60 to 74% of the forecast error variances of these exportats. It is noted that an exchange rate devaluation stimulates more the exports of products than it does the fertilizer imports. Besides, an increase of 1% of the GDP has an expressive impact (converging into -1.7%) on agricultural products exports

Uma análise da alocação de contratos futuros sobre commodities em portfólios diversificados

O trabalho analisou o impacto da introdução dos contratos futuros agropecuários (de café arábica, soja, milho, açúcar cristal, etanol e boi gordo), negociados na Bolsa de Valores, Mercadorias e Futuros - BM&FBovespa, no risco e no retorno de uma carteira diversificada, composta por ações, títulos, ouro e dólar, entre agosto de 1994 e dezembro de 2007. Foram realizados estudos para o intervalo de tempo completo e para subdivisões de dois e três períodos, além de uma análise bianual. Foram consideradas quatro diferentes estratégias com tais derivativos: posições compradas e vendidas em contratos de primeiro vencimento e de prazos superiores a seis meses. Com o uso da Teoria do Portfólio, observaram-se expansões da fronteira eficiente na análise bianual e para os períodos 1994-1998 e 1999-2003, porém estas não foram estatisticamente significativas, conforme metodologia de Gibbons, Ross e Shanken (1989).This paper analyzed the impact of including commodity futures (arabica coffee, soybean, corn, crystal sugar, ethanol and fed cattle), negotiated at Securities, Commodity and Futures Exchange (BM&FBovespa), in the performance of a diversified portfolio, composed by stocks, bonds, gold and dollar, between August of 1994 and December of 2007, when were studied the complete time break and subdivisions of two and three periods, adding a biannual analysis. Different strategies with these derivatives were considered: buy and hold or sell and hold contracts of first settlement or that took six months to maturity. Using the Portfolio Theory, results in biannual analysis and over the time periods 1994-1998 and 1999-2003 showed improvement in portfolio efficiency, but without statistical significance, according methodology used by Gibbons, Ross e Shanken (1989)