Sea surface mixed layer during the 10-11 June 1994 California coastally trapped event

A midlevel, coastally trapped atmospheric event occurred along the California coast 10-11 June 1994. This feature reversed the surface wind field along the coast in a northerly phase progression. Along the central California coast, the winds at the coastal stations reverse before the corresponding coastal buoy offshore, then followed hours later by passage of the leading edge of an overcast stratus cloud. The sea surface temperature was much colder in the narrow strip along the coast. The cloud characteristics may be accounted for by a sea surface mixed layer (SSML) model beginning with the wind reversal and growing with the square root of time. Heat is lost from the SSML to the sea surface. A cloud forms when the air temperature at the top of the SSML is equal to the dewpoint. It is suggested that a bore develops on the top of the SSML, increasing the thickness of the SSML and the progression speed of the cloud to 8 m s-1. There is evidence that an undular bore with a leading cloud develops in the thinner inshore SSML. Advancing beyond Monterey Bay, horizontal density contrast is believed to have caused the bore to change character to a gravity current with a narrower cloud that passed a point inshore before the winds reversed at the buoys. The last trace of a disturbed boundary layer ended at Point Arena where strong northerly winds prevented any further northerly progression and contributed to a cyclonic eddy that was formed in the lee of the point. Caution is suggested in the interpretation of stratus cloud phase progression without coastal wind measurements

Rural and Urban Differences in Welfare Exits: Minnesota Evidence 1986-1996

This article examines differences between rural and urban counties in the duration of welfare spells. We report evidence that suggests that parents from farming-dependent counties and rural counties are more likely to have shorter spells on welfare. The evidence appears consistent with the literature on rural low-income families in that there may be a concentration of low-wage jobs in rural counties. The difference between rural and urban areas is relevant to welfare policy as it pertains to caseload numbers, parents more likely to reach the sixty-month time limit, and parents more likely to trigger time-based policies, such as employment search. The study uses administrative data of Aid to Families With Dependent Children recipients from the state of Minnesota between 1986 and 1996. The methodology includes constructing descriptive statistics, calculating Kaplan-Meier estimates, and performing a Cox regression analysis with robustness checks across all three methods. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd..

WELFARE REFORM: Recent Policy and Politics

Public policy research has not combined policy and political analysis as its pioneers imagined. Mostly, political scientists study just the policy process, abandoning prescriptions to policy specialists. A better approach is to combine policy and political analysis, using positions on issues to assess policymaking, and vice versa. This article illustrates that approach by applying it to recent welfare reform. I take raising work levels as the chief goal of reform and assess the Family Support Act (FSA) of 1988 and the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) of 1996 against it. FSA was a timid compromise that achieved little while PRWORA was a conflicted measure that achieved more, but at unnecessary risk. I also ask how the tensions between best policy and politics might be resolved. This approach makes public policy research more relevant to the real stakes in policymaking. [142 words.] Copyright 2002 by The Policy Studies Organization.

Ovarian cancer pathology characteristics as predictors of variant pathogenicity in BRCA1 and BRCA2

BackgroundThe distribution of ovarian tumour characteristics differs between germline BRCA1 and BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers and non-carriers. In this study, we assessed the utility of ovarian tumour characteristics as predictors of BRCA1 and BRCA2 variant pathogenicity, for application using the American College of Medical Genetics and the Association for Molecular Pathology (ACMG/AMP) variant classification system.MethodsData for 10,373 ovarian cancer cases, including carriers and non-carriers of BRCA1 or BRCA2 pathogenic variants, were collected from unpublished international cohorts and consortia and published studies. Likelihood ratios (LR) were calculated for the association of ovarian cancer histology and other characteristics, with BRCA1 and BRCA2 variant pathogenicity. Estimates were aligned to ACMG/AMP code strengths (supporting, moderate, strong).ResultsNo histological subtype provided informative ACMG/AMP evidence in favour of BRCA1 and BRCA2 variant pathogenicity. Evidence against variant pathogenicity was estimated for the mucinous and clear cell histologies (supporting) and borderline cases (moderate). Refined associations are provided according to tumour grade, invasion and age at diagnosis.ConclusionsWe provide detailed estimates for predicting BRCA1 and BRCA2 variant pathogenicity based on ovarian tumour characteristics. This evidence can be combined with other variant information under the ACMG/AMP classification system, to improve classification and carrier clinical management.Peer reviewe