Predictors of Adherence to Stroke Prevention in the BALKAN-AF Study:A Machine-Learning Approach

Background  Compared with usual care, guideline-adherent stroke prevention strategy, based on the ABC (Atrial fibrillation Better Care) pathway, is associated with better outcomes. Given that stroke prevention is central to atrial fibrillation (AF) management, improved efforts to determining predictors of adherence with ‘A’ (avoid stroke) component of the ABC pathway are needed. Purpose  We tested the hypothesis that more sophisticated methodology using machine learning (ML) algorithms could do this. Methods  In this post-hoc analysis of the BALKAN-AF dataset, ML algorithms and logistic regression were tested. The feature selection process identified a subset of variables that were most relevant for creating the model. Adherence with the ‘A’ criterion of the ABC pathway was defined as the use of oral anticoagulants (OAC) in patients with AF with a CHA (2) DS (2) -VASc score of 0 (male) or 1 (female). Results  Among 2,712 enrolled patients, complete data on ‘A’-adherent management were available in 2,671 individuals (mean age 66.0 ± 12.8; 44.5% female). Based on ML algorithms, independent predictors of ‘A-criterion adherent management’ were paroxysmal AF, center in capital city, and first-diagnosed AF. Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, chronic kidney disease with chronic dialysis, and sleep apnea were independently associated with a lower likelihood of ‘A’-criterion adherent management. ML evaluated predictors of adherence with the ‘A’ criterion of the ABC pathway derived an area under the receiver-operator curve of 0.710 (95%CI 0.67–0.75) for random forest with fine tuning. Conclusions  Machine learning identified paroxysmal AF, treatment center in the capital city, and first-diagnosed AF as predictors of adherence to the A pathway; and hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, chronic kidney disease with chronic dialysis, and sleep apnea as predictors of non adherence

Impact of multimorbidity and polypharmacy on the management of patients with atrial fibrillation: insights from the BALKAN-AF survey

Objective We investigated the impact of multimorbidity and polypharmacy on the management of atrial fibrillation (AF) patients in clinical practice and assessed factors associated with polypharmacy and oral anticoagulation (OAC) use in AF patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy. Methods A 14-week prospective study of consecutive non-valvular AF patients was performed in seven Balkan countries. Results Of 2712 consecutive patients, 2263 patients (83.4%) had multimorbidity (AF + ≥2 concomitant diseases) and 1505 patients (55.5%) had polypharmacy. 1416 (52.2%) patients had both multimorbidity and polypharmacy. Overall, 1164 (82.2%) patients received OAC, 200 (14.1%) patients received antiplatelet drugs alone and 52 (3.7%) patients had no antithrombotic therapy (AT). Non-emergency centre and paroxysmal AF were significantly associated with OAC non-use in patients with multimorbidity, whilst age ≥80 years and non-emergency centre were identified to be independent predictors of OAC non-use in patients with polypharmacy. Conclusions Multimorbidity and polypharmacy were common among AF patients in our study. AT was suboptimal and approximately 18% of multimorbid patients with polypharmacy were not anticoagulated. Pattern of AF and non-emergency centre were associated with OAC non-use in AF patients with multimorbidity, whilst non-emergency centre and age ≥80 years were associated with OAC non-use in AF patients with polypharmacy. Key Message Multimorbidity and polypharmacy are common among patients with AF. Antithrombotic therapy was suboptimal in AF patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy. Approximately, 18% of multimorbid patients with polypharmacy were not anticoagulated

Management of patients with newly-diagnosed atrial fibrillation: Insights from the BALKAN-AF survey.

BackgroundBALKAN-AF evaluated patterns of atrial fibrillation (AF) management in real-world clinical practice in the Balkans. The objectives were: to assess the proportion of patients with first-diagnosed AF in the BALKAN-AF cohort and to compare the management of patients with newly-diagnosed AF and those with previously known AF in clinical practice.MethodsConsecutive patients from 7 Balkan countries were enrolled prospectively to the snapshot BALKAN-AF survey.ResultsOf 2712 enrolled patients, 2677 (98.7%) with complete data were included. 631 (23.6%) patients had newly-diagnosed AF and 2046 (76.4%) patients had known AF. Patients with newly-diagnosed AF were more likely to be hospitalized for AF and to receive single antiplatelet therapy (SAPT) alone and less likely to receive OACs than those with known AF (all p 2DS2-VASc (p = 0.624) or HAS-BLED score (p = 0.225) on univariate analysis. Treatment in capital city, hypertension, dilated cardiomyopathy, mitral valve disease, country of residence or rate control strategy were independent predictors of OAC use, whilst non-emergency centre, treatment by cardiologist, paroxysmal AF, palpitations, symptoms attributable to AF (as judged by physician), mean heart rate and AF as the main reason for hospitalization were independent predictors of rhythm control strategy use.ConclusionsIn BALKAN-AF survey, patients with newly-diagnosed AF were more often hospitalized, less often received OAC and were more likely to receive SAPT alone. The use of OAC for stroke prevention has not been driven by the individual patient stroke risk

The Patterns of Non-vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulants (NOACs) Use in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation in Seven Balkan Countries: a Report from the BALKAN-AF Survey

<p><strong>Article full text</strong></p> <p><br> The full text of this article can be found <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12325-017-0589-5"><b>here</b>.</a><br> <br> <strong>Provide enhanced digital features for this article</strong><br> If you are an author of this publication and would like to provide additional enhanced digital features for your article then please contact <u>[email protected]</u>.<br> <br> The journal offers a range of additional features designed to increase visibility and readership. All features will be thoroughly peer reviewed to ensure the content is of the highest scientific standard and all features are marked as ‘peer reviewed’ to ensure readers are aware that the content has been reviewed to the same level as the articles they are being presented alongside. Moreover, all sponsorship and disclosure information is included to provide complete transparency and adherence to good publication practices. This ensures that however the content is reached the reader has a full understanding of its origin. No fees are charged for hosting additional open access content.<br> <br> Other enhanced features include, but are not limited to:<br> • Slide decks<br> • Videos and animations<br> • Audio abstracts<br> • Audio slides<u></u></p