Causal Consistency of Structural Equation Models

Complex systems can be modelled at various levels of detail. Ideally, causal models of the same system should be consistent with one another in the sense that they agree in their predictions of the effects of interventions. We formalise this notion of consistency in the case of Structural Equation Models (SEMs) by introducing exact transformations between SEMs. This provides a general language to consider, for instance, the different levels of description in the following three scenarios: (a) models with large numbers of variables versus models in which the `irrelevant' or unobservable variables have been marginalised out; (b) micro-level models versus macro-level models in which the macro-variables are aggregate features of the micro-variables; (c) dynamical time series models versus models of their stationary behaviour. Our analysis stresses the importance of well specified interventions in the causal modelling process and sheds light on the interpretation of cyclic SEMs.Comment: equal contribution between Rubenstein and Weichwald; accepted manuscrip

MACS: Multi-agent COTR system for Defense Contracting

The field of intelligent multi-agent systems has expanded rapidly in the recent past. Multi-agent architectures and systems are being investigated and continue to develop. To date, little has been accomplished in applying multi-agent systems to the defense acquisition domain. This paper describes the design, development, and related considerations of a multi-agent system in the area of procurement and contracting for the defense acquisition community

Unfolding cross-linkers as rheology regulators in F-actin networks

We report on the nonlinear mechanical properties of a statistically homogeneous, isotropic semiflexible network cross-linked by polymers containing numerous small unfolding domains, such as the ubiquitous F-actin cross-linker Filamin. We show that the inclusion of such proteins has a dramatic effect on the large strain behavior of the network. Beyond a strain threshold, which depends on network density, the unfolding of protein domains leads to bulk shear softening. Past this critical strain, the network spontaneously organizes itself so that an appreciable fraction of the Filamin cross-linkers are at the threshold of domain unfolding. We discuss via a simple mean-field model the cause of this network organization and suggest that it may be the source of power-law relaxation observed in in vitro and in intracellular microrheology experiments. We present data which fully justifies our model for a simplified network architecture.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures. to appear in Physical Review

Comparative Monte Carlo Efficiency by Monte Carlo Analysis

We propose a modified power method for computing the subdominant eigenvalue $\lambda_2$ of a matrix or continuous operator. Here we focus on defining simple Monte Carlo methods for its application. The methods presented use random walkers of mixed signs to represent the subdominant eigenfuction. Accordingly, the methods must cancel these signs properly in order to sample this eigenfunction faithfully. We present a simple procedure to solve this sign problem and then test our Monte Carlo methods by computing the $\lambda_2$ of various Markov chain transition matrices. We first computed ${\lambda_2}$ for several one and two dimensional Ising models, which have a discrete phase space, and compared the relative efficiencies of the Metropolis and heat-bath algorithms as a function of temperature and applied magnetic field. Next, we computed $\lambda_2$ for a model of an interacting gas trapped by a harmonic potential, which has a mutidimensional continuous phase space, and studied the efficiency of the Metropolis algorithm as a function of temperature and the maximum allowable step size $\Delta$. Based on the $\lambda_2$ criterion, we found for the Ising models that small lattices appear to give an adequate picture of comparative efficiency and that the heat-bath algorithm is more efficient than the Metropolis algorithm only at low temperatures where both algorithms are inefficient. For the harmonic trap problem, we found that the traditional rule-of-thumb of adjusting $\Delta$ so the Metropolis acceptance rate is around 50% range is often sub-optimal. In general, as a function of temperature or $\Delta$, $\lambda_2$ for this model displayed trends defining optimal efficiency that the acceptance ratio does not. The cases studied also suggested that Monte Carlo simulations for a continuum model are likely more efficient than those for a discretized version of the model.Comment: 23 pages, 8 figure

Are superflares on solar analogues caused by extra-solar planets?

Stellar flares with ${10^2-10^7}$ times more energy than the largest solar flare have been detected from 9 normal F and G main sequence stars (Schaefer, King & Deliyannis 1999). These superflares have durations of hours to days and are visible from at least x-ray to optical frequencies. The absence of world-spanning aurorae in historical records and of anomalous extinctions in the geological record indicate that our Sun likely does not suffer superflares. In seeking to explain this new phenomenon, we are struck by its similarity to large stellar flares on RS Canum Venaticorum binary systems, which are caused by magnetic reconnection events associated with the tangling of magnetic fields between the two stars. The superflare stars are certainly not of this class, although we propose a similar flare mechanism. That is, superflares are caused by magnetic reconnection between fields of the primary star and a close-in Jovian planet. Thus, by only invoking known planetary properties and reconnection scenarios, we can explain the energies, durations, and spectra of superflares, as well as explain why our Sun does not have such events.Comment: 13 pages, Accepted for publication in Ap

Concordance of drug resistance profiles between persons with drug-resistant tuberculosis and their household contacts: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Household contacts of patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis are at high risk for being infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis and for developing tuberculosis disease. To guide regimen composition for the empirical treatment of tuberculosis infection and disease in these household contacts, we estimated drug resistance profile concordance between index patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis and their household contacts. Methods We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies published through July 24, 2018 and reported resistance profiles of drug-resistant tuberculosis index and secondary cases within their households. Using a random-effects meta-analysis, we estimated resistance profile concordance, defined as the percentage of secondary cases whose M. tuberculosis strains were resistant to the same drugs as strains from their index cases. We also estimated isoniazid/rifampin concordance, defined as whether index and secondary cases had identical susceptibilities for isoniazid and rifampin only. Results We identified 33 eligible studies, which evaluated resistance profile concordance between 484 secondary cases and their household index cases. Pooled resistance profile concordance was 54.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 40.7-67.6, I2=85%). Pooled isoniazid/rifampin concordance was 82.6% (95% CI: 72.3-90.9; I2=73%). Concordance estimates were similar in a sub-analysis of 16 studies from high tuberculosis-burden countries. There were insufficient data to perform a sub-analysis among pediatric secondary cases. Conclusion Household contacts of drug-resistant TB patients should receive treatment for TB infection and disease that assumes that they, too, are infected with a drug-resistant M. tuberculosis strain. Whenever possible, drug susceptibility testing should be performed for secondary cases to optimize regimen composition