Monte Carlo drift correction – quantifying the drift uncertainty of global climate models

Global climate models are susceptible to drift, causing spurious trends in output variables. Drift is often corrected using data from a control simulation. However, internal climate variability within the control simulation introduces uncertainty to the drift correction process. To quantify this drift uncertainty, we develop a probabilistic technique: Monte Carlo drift correction (MCDC). MCDC samples the standard error associated with drift in the control time series. We apply MCDC to an ensemble of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We find that drift correction partially addresses a problem related to drift: energy leakage. Nevertheless, the energy balance of several models remains suspect. We quantify the drift uncertainty of global quantities associated with the Earth's energy balance and thermal expansion of the ocean. When correcting drift in a cumulatively integrated energy flux, we find that it is preferable to integrate the flux before correcting the drift: an alternative method would be to correct the bias before integrating the flux, but this alternative method amplifies the drift uncertainty. Assuming that drift is linear likely leads to an underestimation of drift uncertainty. Time series with weak trends may be especially susceptible to drift uncertainty: for historical thermosteric sea level rise since the 1850s, the drift uncertainty can range from 3 to 24 mm, which is of comparable magnitude to the impact of omitting volcanic forcing in control simulations. Derived coefficients – such as the ocean's expansion efficiency of heat – can also be susceptible to drift uncertainty. When evaluating and analysing global climate model data that are susceptible to drift, researchers should consider drift uncertainty.</p

Impacts on cloud radiative effects induced by coexisting aerosols converted from international shipping and maritime DMS emissions

International shipping emissions (ISE), particularly sulfur dioxide, can influence the global radiation budget by interacting with clouds and radiation after being oxidized into sulfate aerosols. A better understanding of the uncertainties in estimating the cloud radiative effects (CREs) of ISE is of great importance in climate science. Many international shipping tracks cover oceans with substantial natural dimethyl sulfide (DMS) emissions. The interplay between these two major aerosol sources on CREs over vast oceanic regions with a relatively low aerosol concentration is an intriguing yet poorly addressed issue confounding estimation of the CREs of ISE. Using an Earth system model including two aerosol modules with different aerosol mixing configurations, we derive a significant global net CRE of ISE (−0.153&thinsp;W&thinsp;m−2 with a standard error of ±0.004&thinsp;W&thinsp;m−2) when using emissions consistent with current ship emission regulations. This global net CRE would become much weaker and actually insignificant (−0.001&thinsp;W&thinsp;m−2 standard error of ±0.007&thinsp;W&thinsp;m−2) if a more stringent regulation were adopted. We then reveal that the ISE-induced CRE would achieve a significant enhancement when a lower DMS emission is prescribed in the simulations, owing to the sublinear relationship between aerosol concentration and cloud response. In addition, this study also demonstrates that the representation of certain aerosol processes, such as mixing states, can influence the magnitude and pattern of the ISE-induced CRE. These findings suggest a reevaluation of the ISE-induced CRE with consideration of DMS variability.</p

Effective radiative forcing in the aerosol–climate model CAM5.3-MARC-ARG

We quantify the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic aerosols modelled by the aerosol–climate model CAM5.3-MARC-ARG. CAM5.3-MARC-ARG is a new configuration of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3) in which the default aerosol module has been replaced by the two-Moment, Multi-Modal, Mixing-state-resolving Aerosol model for Research of Climate (MARC). CAM5.3-MARC-ARG uses the ARG aerosol-activation scheme, consistent with the default configuration of CAM5.3. We compute differences between simulations using year-1850 aerosol emissions and simulations using year-2000 aerosol emissions in order to assess the radiative effects of anthropogenic aerosols. We compare the aerosol lifetimes, aerosol column burdens, cloud properties, and radiative effects produced by CAM5.3-MARC-ARG with those produced by the default configuration of CAM5.3, which uses the modal aerosol module with three log-normal modes (MAM3), and a configuration using the modal aerosol module with seven log-normal modes (MAM7). Compared with MAM3 and MAM7, we find that MARC produces stronger cooling via the direct radiative effect, the shortwave cloud radiative effect, and the surface albedo radiative effect; similarly, MARC produces stronger warming via the longwave cloud radiative effect. Overall, MARC produces a global mean net ERF of −1.79±0.03&thinsp;W&thinsp;m−2, which is stronger than the global mean net ERF of −1.57±0.04&thinsp;W&thinsp;m−2 produced by MAM3 and −1.53±0.04&thinsp;W&thinsp;m−2 produced by MAM7. The regional distribution of ERF also differs between MARC and MAM3, largely due to differences in the regional distribution of the shortwave cloud radiative effect. We conclude that the specific representation of aerosols in global climate models, including aerosol mixing state, has important implications for climate modelling.</p

Working conditions and Work-Family Conflict in German hospital physicians: psychosocial and organisational predictors and consequences

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Germany currently experiences a situation of major physician attrition. The incompatibility between work and family has been discussed as one of the major reasons for the increasing departure of German physicians for non-clinical occupations or abroad. This study investigates predictors for one particular direction of Work-Family Conflict – namely work interfering with family conflict (WIF) – which are located within the psychosocial work environment or work organisation of hospital physicians. Furthermore, effects of WIF on the individual physicians' physical and mental health were examined. Analyses were performed with an emphasis on gender differences. Comparisons with the general German population were made.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data were collected by questionnaires as part of a study on <it>Psychosocial work hazards and strains of German hospital physicians </it>during April–July 2005. Two hundred and ninety-six hospital physicians (response rate 38.9%) participated in the survey. The Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ), work interfering with family conflict scale (WIF), and hospital-specific single items on work organisation were used to assess WIF, its predictors, and consequences.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>German hospital physicians reported elevated levels of WIF (mean = 74) compared to the general German population (mean = 45, <it>p </it>< .01). No significant gender difference was found. Predictors for the WIF were lower age, high quantitative demands at work, elevated number of days at work despite own illness, and consequences of short-notice changes in the duty roster. Good sense of community at work was a protective factor. Compared to the general German population, we observed a significant higher level of quantitative work demands among hospital physicians (mean = 73 vs. mean = 57, <it>p </it>< .01). High values of WIF were significantly correlated to higher rates of personal burnout, behavioural and cognitive stress symptoms, and the intention to leave the job. In contrast, low levels of WIF predicted higher job satisfaction, better self-judged general health status, better work ability, and higher satisfaction with life in general. Compared to the German general population, physicians showed significantly higher levels of individual stress and quality of life as well as lower levels for well-being. This has to be judged as an alerting finding regarding the state of physicians' health.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In our study, work interfering with family conflict (WIF) as part of Work-Family Conflict (WFC) was highly prevalent among German hospital physicians. Factors of work organisation as well as factors of interpersonal relations at work were identified as significant predictors for WIF. Some of these predictors are accessible to alteration by improving work organisation in hospitals.</p

Resolution, Relief, And Resignation:A Qualitative Study Of Responses To Misfit At Work

Research has portrayed person–environment (PE) fit as a pleasant condition resulting from people being attracted to and selected into compatible work environments; yet, our study reveals that creating and maintaining a sense of fit frequently involves an effortful, dynamic set of strategies. We used a two-phase, qualitative design to allow employees to report how they become aware of and experience misfit, and what they do in response. To address these questions, we conducted interviews with 81 individuals sampled from diverse industries and occupations. Through their descriptions, we identified three broad responses to the experience of misfit: resolution, relief, and resignation. Within these approaches, we identified distinct strategies for responding to misfit. We present a model of how participants used these strategies, often in combination, and develop propositions regarding their effectiveness at reducing strain associated with misfit. These results expand PE fit theory by providing new insight into how individuals experience and react to misfit—portraying them as active, motivated creators of their own fit experience at work

The function of fear in institutional maintenance: Feeling frightened as an essential ingredient in haute cuisine

Fear is a common and powerful emotion that can regulate behaviour. Yet institutional scholars have paid limited attention to the function of fear in processes of institutional reproduction and stability. Drawing on an empirical study of elite chefs within the institution of haute cuisine, this article finds that the multifaceted emotion of fear characterised their experiences and served to sustain their institution. Chefs’ individual feelings of fear prompted conformity and a cognitive constriction, which narrowed their focus on to the precise reproduction of traditional practices whilst also limiting challenges to the norms underpinning the institution. Through fear work, chefs used threats and violence to connect individual experiences of fear to the violation of institutionalized rules, sustaining the conditions in which fear-driven maintenance work thrived. The study also suggests that fear is a normative element of haute cuisine in its own right, where the very experience and eliciting of fear preserved an essential institutional ingredient. In this way, emotions such as fear do not just accompany processes of institutionalization but can be intimately involved in the maintenance of institutions

Work-life conflict and associations with work- and nonwork-related factors and with physical and mental health outcomes: a nationally representative cross-sectional study in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: The aim of the present cross-sectional study was to examine work- and nonwork-related factors and physical and mental health outcomes associated with combined time- and strain-based work-life conflict (WLC) among adult employees living and working in Switzerland as well as possible gender differences in this regard. METHODS: The data used for the study were taken from wave 6 of the nationally representative Swiss Household Panel (SHP) collected in 2004. The analysis was restricted to 4'371 employees aged 20 to 64 years. Trivariate crosstabulations and multivariate linear and logistic regression analyses stratified by gender were performed in order to calculate gender-specific prevalence rates (%), beta coefficients (SZ) and crude as well as multiple adjusted odds ratios (OR) as measures of association. RESULTS: Every eighth person (12.5%) within the study population has a high or very high WLC score. Prevalence rates are clearly above average in men and women with higher education, in executive positions or managerial functions, in full-time jobs, with variable work schedules, regular overtime, long commuting time to work and job insecurity. Working overtime regularly, having variable work schedules and being in a management position are most strongly associated with WLC in men, whereas in women the level of employment is the strongest explanatory variable by far, followed by variable work schedules and high job status (managerial position). In both men and women, WLC is associated with several physical and mental health problems. Employees with high or very high WLC show a comparatively high relative risk of self-reported poor health, anxiety and depression, lack of energy and optimism, serious backache, headaches, sleep disorders and fatigue. While overall prevalence rate of (very) high WLC is higher in men than in women, associations between degrees of WLC and most health outcomes are stronger in women than in men. CONCLUSIONS: This important issue which up to now has been largely neglected in public health research needs to be addressed in future public health research and, if the findings are confirmed by subsequent (longitudinal) studies, to be considered in workplace health promotion and interventions in Switzerland as elsewhere

Can empathy lead to emotional exhaustion in teachers? The mediating role of emotional labor

Objectives: The present study was designed to examine the links between empathy, emotional labor (both surface and deep acting), and emotional exhaustion as well as determine if emotional labor mediates the relationship between empathy and emotional exhaustion in teachers. It was assumed that emotional labor can take two opposite directions (positive mood induction and negative mood induction). Thus, the additional aim of the study was to analyze the mediating role of mood regulation strategies in the relationship between empathy and emotional exhaustion. Materials and Methods: A sample of 168 teachers from Łódź and its surroundings completed a set of questionnaires: Emotional Labor Scale; Mood Regulation Scales, Maslach Burnout Inventory, and Empathic Sensitivity Scale. Results: The results provided mixed support for the hypotheses indicating that both types of emotional labor, negative mood induction and emotional exhaustion were positively intercorrelated. Moreover, deep acting was a significant mediator in the relationship between empathy and emotional exhaustion. The analyzed link was also mediated by negative mood induction, whereas positive mood induction did not emerge as a significant mediator. Conclusions: The study provided insight into the role of empathy and emotional labor in the development of teacher burnout. It also confirmed that deep acting and negative mood induction mediate the relationship between empathy and emotional exhaustion in teachers

Energy Management of People in Organizations: A Review and Research Agenda

Although energy is a concept that is implied in many motivational theories, is hardly ever explicitly mentioned or researched. The current article first relates theories and research findings that were thus far not explicitly related to energy. We describe theories such as flow, subjective well-being, engagement and burn-out, and make the link with energy more explicit. Also, we make a first link between personality characteristics and energy, and describe the role of leadership in unleashing followers’ energy. Following, we identify how the topic of energy management can be profitably incorporated in research from a scientific as well as a practitioner viewpoint. Finally, we describe several interventions to enhance energy in individuals and organizations