Paths to accuracy for radiation parameterizations in atmospheric models

Radiative transfer is sufficiently well understood that its parameterization in atmospheric models is primarily an effort to balance computational cost and accuracy. The most common approach is to compute radiative transfer with the highest practical spectral accuracy but infrequently in time and/or space, though errors introduced by this approximation are difficult to quantify. An alternative is to perform spectrally sparse calculations frequently in time using randomly chosen spectral quadrature points. Here we show that purely random quadrature points, though effective in some large-eddy simulations, are not a good choice for models in which the land surface responds to radiative fluxes because surface temperature perturbations can be large enough, and persistent long enough, to affect model evolution. These errors may be mitigated by choosing teams of spectral points designed to limit the maximum surface flux error; teams, rather than individual quadrature points, are then chosen randomly. The approach is implemented in the ECHAM6 global model and the results are examined using “perfect-model” experiments on time scales ranging from a day to a month. In this application the approach introduces errors commensurate with the infrequent calculation of broadband calculations for the same computational cost. But because teams need not increase with size, and indeed may become better and more balanced with increased spectral density, improvements in radiative transfer may not need to be traded off against spatiotemporal sampling

Predicting all-cause mortality from basic physiology in the Framingham Heart Study

Using longitudinal data from a cohort of 1349 participants in the Framingham Heart Study, we show that as early as 28–38 years of age, almost 10% of variation in future lifespan can be predicted from simple clinical parameters. Specifically, we found diastolic and systolic blood pressure, blood glucose, weight, and body mass index (BMI) to be relevant to lifespan. These and similar parameters have been well‐characterized as risk factors in the relatively narrow context of cardiovascular disease and mortality in middle to old age. In contrast, we demonstrate here that such measures can be used to predict all‐cause mortality from mid‐adulthood onward. Further, we find that different clinical measurements are predictive of lifespan in different age regimes. Specifically, blood pressure and BMI are predictive of all‐cause mortality from ages 35 to 60, while blood glucose is predictive from ages 57 to 73. Moreover, we find that several of these parameters are best considered as measures of a rate of ‘damage accrual’, such that total historical exposure, rather than current measurement values, is the most relevant risk factor (as with pack‐years of cigarette smoking). In short, we show that simple physiological measurements have broader lifespan‐predictive value than indicated by previous work and that incorporating information from multiple time points can significantly increase that predictive capacity. In general, our results apply equally to both men and women, although some differences exist

The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): experimental protocol for CMIP6

The phrasing of the first of three questions motivating CMIP6 – “How does the Earth system respond to forcing?” – suggests that forcing is always well-known, yet the radiative forcing to which this question refers has historically been uncertain in coordinated experiments even as understanding of how best to infer radiative forcing has evolved. The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) endorsed by CMIP6 seeks to provide a foundation for answering the question through three related activities: (i) accurate characterization of the effective radiative forcing relative to a near-preindustrial baseline and careful diagnosis of the components of this forcing; (ii) assessment of the absolute accuracy of clear-sky radiative transfer parameterizations against reference models on the global scales relevant for climate modeling; and (iii) identification of robust model responses to tightly specified aerosol radiative forcing from 1850 to present. Complete characterization of effective radiative forcing can be accomplished with 180 years (Tier 1) of atmosphere-only simulation using a sea-surface temperature and sea ice concentration climatology derived from the host model's preindustrial control simulation. Assessment of parameterization error requires trivial amounts of computation but the development of small amounts of infrastructure: new, spectrally detailed diagnostic output requested as two snapshots at present-day and preindustrial conditions, and results from the model's radiation code applied to specified atmospheric conditions. The search for robust responses to aerosol changes relies on the CMIP6 specification of anthropogenic aerosol properties; models using this specification can contribute to RFMIP with no additional simulation, while those using a full aerosol model are requested to perform at least one and up to four 165-year coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations at Tier 1

On the transitions in marine boundary layer cloudiness

Satellite observations and meteorological reanalysis are used to examine the transition from unbroken sheets of stratocumulus to fields of scattered cumulus, and the processes controlling them, in four subtropical oceans. A Lagrangian analysis suggests that both the transition, defined as the temporal evolution in cloudiness, and the processes driving the transition, are quite similar among the subtropical oceans. The increase in sea surface temperature and the associated decrease in lower tropospheric stability appear to play a far more important role in cloud evolution than other factors including changes in large scale divergence and upper tropospheric humidity. During the summer months, the transitions in marine boundary layer cloudiness appear so systematically that their characteristics obtained by documenting the flow of thousands of individual air masses are well reproduced by the mean (or climatological) fields of the different data sets. This highlights interesting opportunities for future observational and modeling studies of these transitions

Exact Lyapunov Exponent for Infinite Products of Random Matrices

In this work, we give a rigorous explicit formula for the Lyapunov exponent for some binary infinite products of random $2\times 2$ real matrices. All these products are constructed using only two types of matrices, $A$ and $B$, which are chosen according to a stochastic process. The matrix $A$ is singular, namely its determinant is zero. This formula is derived by using a particular decomposition for the matrix $B$, which allows us to write the Lyapunov exponent as a sum of convergent series. Finally, we show with an example that the Lyapunov exponent is a discontinuous function of the given parameter.Comment: 1 pages, CPT-93/P.2974,late

Universal reduction of pressure between charged surfaces by long-wavelength surface charge modulation

We predict theoretically that long-wavelength surface charge modulations universally reduce the pressure between the charged surfaces with counterions compared with the case of uniformly charged surfaces with the same average surface charge density. The physical origin of this effect is the fact that surface charge modulations always lead to enhanced counterion localization near the surfaces, and hence, fewer charges at the midplane. We confirm the last prediction with Monte Carlo simulations.Comment: 8 pages 1 figure, Europhys. Lett., in pres

Screening by symmetry of long-range hydrodynamic interactions of polymers confined in sheets

Hydrodynamic forces may significantly affect the motion of polymers. In sheet-like cavities, such as the cell's cytoplasm and microfluidic channels, the hydrodynamic forces are long-range. It is therefore expected that that hydrodynamic interactions will dominate the motion of polymers in sheets and will be manifested by Zimm-like scaling. Quite the opposite, we note here that although the hydrodynamic forces are long-range their overall effect on the motion of polymers vanishes due to the symmetry of the two-dimensional flow. As a result, the predicted scaling of experimental observables such as the diffusion coefficient or the rotational diffusion time is Rouse-like, in accord with recent experiments. The effective screening validates the use of the non-interacting blobs picture for polymers confined in a sheet.Comment: http://www.weizmann.ac.il/complex/tlusty/papers/Macromolecules2006.pdf http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/ma060251

Charge Fluctuations on Membrane Surfaces in Water

We generalize the predictions for attractions between over-all neutral surfaces induced by charge fluctuations/correlations to non-uniform systems that include dielectric discontinuities, as is the case for mixed charged lipid membranes in an aqueous solution. We show that the induced interactions depend in a non-trivial way on the dielectric constants of membrane and water and show different scaling with distance depending on these properties. The generality of the calculations also allows us to predict under which dielectric conditions the interaction will change sign and become repulsive