In sickness and in Health? Dynamics of health and cohabitation in the United Kingdom

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the dynamics of cohabitation and functional impairments among older people. Our research has three main aims. Firstly, we want to analyse the effects of cohabitation on disability. Secondly, we want to study time trends in disability and cohabitation jointly to explore relationships between the two. Thirdly, we examine socioeconomic differences -- as captured by educational attainment -- in disability. These issues are of great interest from several points of view. Firstly, they address an emerging theoretical debate concerning the effects of cohabitation on health and contribute to a sparse empirical literature on the topic. Secondly, our findings are highly policy relevant. Concerning long-term care for older people, for example, cohabitation is of double importance: firstly, since people who cohabit tend to be healthier, and secondly, since a partner is the typical provider of informal care. In a time where family structures among the old are likely to change (due to changes in life expectancy and divorce rates), our research will be useful for planning purposes. Finally, the model can be used to simulate populations of certain characteristics. Hence, it can be used to derive insurance premiums in order to reduce the problem of selection effects in the market for long-term care insurance. Using the British Household Panel Survey dataset, we apply panel data and simulation techniques to exploit the longitudinal characteristic of the panel. We estimate the two dependent variables -- cohabitation status and disability -- jointly, and allow for time trends, age effects and unobserved heterogeneity. We find that there are systematic differences between single and cohabiting people so that a cross sectional analysis would overestimate the causal relationship; nevertheless, cohabitation has a strong and positive effect on health. Furthermore, we find that bereavement of a partner has a significant negative impact on health

Are the dimensions of private information more multiple than expected? Information asymmetries in the market of supplementary private health insurance in England

Our study reexamines standard econometric approaches for the detection of information asymmetries on insurance markets. We claim that evidence based on a standard framework with 2 equations, which uses potential sources of information asymmetries, should stress the importance of heterogeneity in the parameters. We argue that conclusions derived from this methodology can be misleading if the estimated coefficients in such an `unused characteristics' framework are driven by different parts of the population. We show formally that an individual's expected risk from the perspective of insurance, conditioned on certain characteristics (which are not used for calculating the risk premium), can equal the population's expectation in risk { although such characteristics are both related to risk and insurance probability, which is usually interpreted as an indicator of information asymmetries. We provide empirical evidence on the existence of information asymmetries in the market for supplementary private health insurance in the UK. Overall, we found evidence for advantageous selection into the private risk pool; ie people with lower health risk tend to insure more. The main drivers of this phenomenon seem to be characteristics such as income and wealth. Nevertheless, we also found parameter heterogeneity to be relevant, leading to possible misinterpretation if the standard `unused characteristics' approach is applied

Investigating the market potential for customised long term care insurance products

Previous economic research into long-term care (LTC) has mainly been focussed on one issue: the reasons why the LTC insurance market has not been successful. In this contribution, we analyse the prospects for a new type of insurance policy, which offers a top-up on the resources already available to the individual. We abstract from most problems inherent in LTC insurance markets and derive premium rates for various types of insurance policies. Generally, we find that the top-up option reduces premium rates considerably, to the point where it might be expected that a substantial number of people would take up policies, were they available

Polarization Drift Channel Model for Coherent Fibre-Optic Systems

A theoretical framework is introduced to model the dynamical changes of the state of polarization during transmission in coherent fibre-optic systems. The model generalizes the one-dimensional phase noise random walk to higher dimensions, accounting for random polarization drifts, emulating a random walk on the Poincar\'e sphere, which has been successfully verified using experimental data. The model is described in the Jones, Stokes and real four-dimensional formalisms, and the mapping between them is derived. Such a model will be increasingly important in simulating and optimizing future systems, where polarization-multiplexed transmission and sophisticated digital signal processing will be natural parts. The proposed polarization drift model is the first of its kind as prior work either models polarization drift as a deterministic process or focuses on polarization-mode dispersion in systems where the state of polarization does not affect the receiver performance. We expect the model to be useful in a wide-range of photonics applications where stochastic polarization fluctuation is an issue.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figure

Stochastic Prediction of Multi-Agent Interactions from Partial Observations

We present a method that learns to integrate temporal information, from a learned dynamics model, with ambiguous visual information, from a learned vision model, in the context of interacting agents. Our method is based on a graph-structured variational recurrent neural network (Graph-VRNN), which is trained end-to-end to infer the current state of the (partially observed) world, as well as to forecast future states. We show that our method outperforms various baselines on two sports datasets, one based on real basketball trajectories, and one generated by a soccer game engine.Comment: ICLR 2019 camera read

Six Peaks Visible in the Redshift Distribution of 46,400 SDSS Quasars Agree with the Preferred Redshifts Predicted by the Decreasing Intrinsic Redshift Model

The redshift distribution of all 46,400 quasars in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Quasar Catalog III, Third Data Release, is examined. Six Peaks that fall within the redshift window below z = 4, are visible. Their positions agree with the preferred redshift values predicted by the decreasing intrinsic redshift (DIR) model, even though this model was derived using completely independent evidence. A power spectrum analysis of the full dataset confirms the presence of a single, significant power peak at the expected redshift period. Power peaks with the predicted period are also obtained when the upper and lower halves of the redshift distribution are examined separately. The periodicity detected is in linear z, as opposed to log(1+z). Because the peaks in the SDSS quasar redshift distribution agree well with the preferred redshifts predicted by the intrinsic redshift relation, we conclude that this relation, and the peaks in the redshift distribution, likely both have the same origin, and this may be intrinsic redshifts, or a common selection effect. However, because of the way the intrinsic redshift relation was determined it seems unlikely that one selection effect could have been responsible for both.Comment: 12 pages, 12 figure, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

Second order statistics of NLOS indoor MIMO channels based on 5.2 GHz measurements

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Twin building lattices do not have asymptotic cut-points

We show that twin building lattices have linear divergence, which implies that all asymptotic cones are without cut-points.Comment: 7 page