Pairwise comparison matrices and the error-free property of the decision maker

Pairwise comparison is a popular assessment method either for deriving criteria-weights or for evaluating alternatives according to a given criterion. In real-world applications consistency of the comparisons rarely happens: intransitivity can occur. The aim of the paper is to discuss the relationship between the consistency of the decision maker—described with the error-free property—and the consistency of the pairwise comparison matrix (PCM). The concept of error-free matrix is used to demonstrate that consistency of the PCM is not a sufficient condition of the error-free property of the decision maker. Informed and uninformed decision makers are defined. In the first stage of an assessment method a consistent or near-consistent matrix should be achieved: detecting, measuring and improving consistency are part of any procedure with both types of decision makers. In the second stage additional information are needed to reveal the decision maker’s real preferences. Interactive questioning procedures are recommended to reach that goal

Investing in Prevention or Paying for Recovery - Attitudes to Cyber Risk

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.Broadly speaking an individual can invest time and effort to avoid becoming victim to a cyber attack and/or they can invest resource in recovering from any attack. We introduce a new game called the pre-vention and recovery game to study this trade-off. We report results from the experimental lab that allow us to categorize different approaches to risk taking. We show that many individuals appear relatively risk loving in that they invest in recovery rather than prevention. We find little difference in behavior between a gain and loss framing

Developing European conservation and mitigation tools for pollination services: approaches of the STEP (Status and Trends of European Pollinators) project

Pollinating insects form a key component of European biodiversity, and provide a vital ecosystem service to crops and wild plants. There is growing evidence of declines in both wild and domesticated pollinators, and parallel declines in plants relying upon them. The STEP project (Status and Trends of European Pollinators, 2010-2015, www.stepproject.net) is documenting critical elements in the nature and extent of these declines, examining key functional traits associated with pollination deficits, and developing a Red List for some European pollinator groups. Together these activities are laying the groundwork for future pollinator monitoring programmes. STEP is also assessing the relative importance of potential drivers of pollinator declines, including climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation, agrochemicals, pathogens, alien species, light pollution, and their interactions. We are measuring the ecological and economic impacts of declining pollinator services and floral resources, including effects on wild plant populations, crop production and human nutrition. STEP is reviewing existing and potential mitigation options, and providing novel tests of their effectiveness across Europe. Our work is building upon existing and newly developed datasets and models, complemented by spatially-replicated campaigns of field research to fill gaps in current knowledge. Findings are being integrated into a policy-relevant framework to create evidence-based decision support tools. STEP is establishing communication links to a wide range of stakeholders across Europe and beyond, including policy makers, beekeepers, farmers, academics and the general public. Taken together, the STEP research programme aims to improve our understanding of the nature, causes, consequences and potential mitigation of declines in pollination services at local, national, continental and global scales

Some thoughts about nonequilibrium temperature

The main objective of this paper is to show that, within the present framework of the kinetic theoretical approach to irreversible thermodynamics, there is no evidence that provides a basis to modify the ordinary Fourier equation relating the heat flux in a non-equilibrium steady state to the gradient of the local equilibrium temperature. This fact is supported, among other arguments, through the kinetic foundations of generalized hydrodynamics. Some attempts have been recently proposed asserting that, in the presence of non-linearities of the state variables, such a temperature should be replaced by the non-equilibrium temperature as defined in Extended Irreversible Thermodynamics. In the approximations used for such a temperature there is so far no evidence that sustains this proposal.Comment: 13 pages, TeX, no figures, to appear in Mol. Phy

Steady State Thermodynamics of Langevin Systems

We study Langevin dynamics describing nonequilibirum steady states. Employing the phenomenological framework of steady state thermodynamics constructed by Oono and Paniconi [Prog. Theor. Phys. Suppl. {\bf130}, 29 (1998)], we find that the extended form of the second law which they proposed holds for transitions between steady states and that the Shannon entropy difference is related to the excess heat produced in an infinitely slow operation. A generalized version of the Jarzynski work relation plays an important role in our theory.Comment: 4 page

MICROECOLOGICAL LANDSCAPE OF DIFFERENT BIOTOPES IN CHILDREN LIVING IN IRKUTSK REGION

Intestinal, nasopharyngeal microbiocenoses peculiarities and bifidobacteria species composition in children living in the Irkutsk region industrial cities under existing technogenic loading conditions have been studied. Major microbiocenosis variants in children living in the cities with the different levels of the atmospheric air pollution have been determine

Clustering, Order, and Collapse in a Driven Granular Monolayer

Steady state dynamics of clustering, long range order, and inelastic collapse are experimentally observed in vertically shaken granular monolayers. At large vibration amplitudes, particle correlations show only short range order like equilibrium 2D hard sphere gases. Lowering the amplitude "cools" the system, resulting in a dramatic increase in correlations leading either to clustering or an ordered state. Further cooling forms a collapse: a condensate of motionless balls co-existing with a less dense gas. Measured velocity distributions are non-Gaussian, showing nearly exponential tails.Comment: 9 pages of text in Revtex, 5 figures; references added, minor modifications Paper accepted to Phys Rev Letters. Tentatively scheduled for Nov. 9, 199

Test of Information Theory on the Boltzmann Equation

We examine information theory using the steady-state Boltzmann equation. In a nonequilibrium steady-state system under steady heat conduction, the thermodynamic quantities from information theory are calculated and compared with those from the steady-state Boltzmann equation. We have found that information theory is inconsistent with the steady-state Boltzmann equation.Comment: 12 page

Relative Entropy: Free Energy Associated with Equilibrium Fluctuations and Nonequilibrium Deviations

Using a one-dimensional macromolecule in aqueous solution as an illustration, we demonstrate that the relative entropy from information theory, $\sum_k p_k\ln(p_k/p_k^*)$, has a natural role in the energetics of equilibrium and nonequilibrium conformational fluctuations of the single molecule. It is identified as the free energy difference associated with a fluctuating density in equilibrium, and is associated with the distribution deviate from the equilibrium in nonequilibrium relaxation. This result can be generalized to any other isothermal macromolecular systems using the mathematical theories of large deviations and Markov processes, and at the same time provides the well-known mathematical results with an interesting physical interpretations.Comment: 5 page

Europeanising advisory expertise: The role of 'independent, objective and transparent' scientific advice in agri-biotech regulation

Since various crises of food safety in the European Union (EU), institutional reforms have been designed to regain public confidence in regulatory decisions and their expert basis. By Europeanising advisory expertise, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) was also meant to help harmonise 'science-based regulation' and thus facilitate EU decisions. In evaluating agri-biotech products during 2003-2005, however, the EFSA procedure extended previous expert disagreements rather than overcome them. EFSA was designed to demonstrate that expert advice would be 'independent, objective and transparent�; yet tensions arose between expert experience versus independence, between transparency versus objectivity, and between harmonisation versus precaution. These conflicts have been shaped by the dominant problem-diagnosis, which favours a narrow expert consensus within a specific policy view. Alternative problem-diagnoses suggest that expertise should instead be pluralised, so that norms and uncertainties become more explicit. Pressure for EU reform manifests tensions between the dominant and alternative problem-diagnoses