Personalized Treatment for Coronary Artery Disease Patients: A Machine Learning Approach

Current clinical practice guidelines for managing Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) account for general cardiovascular risk factors. However, they do not present a framework that considers personalized patient-specific characteristics. Using the electronic health records of 21,460 patients, we created data-driven models for personalized CAD management that significantly improve health outcomes relative to the standard of care. We develop binary classifiers to detect whether a patient will experience an adverse event due to CAD within a 10-year time frame. Combining the patients' medical history and clinical examination results, we achieve 81.5% AUC. For each treatment, we also create a series of regression models that are based on different supervised machine learning algorithms. We are able to estimate with average R squared = 0.801 the time from diagnosis to a potential adverse event (TAE) and gain accurate approximations of the counterfactual treatment effects. Leveraging combinations of these models, we present ML4CAD, a novel personalized prescriptive algorithm. Considering the recommendations of multiple predictive models at once, ML4CAD identifies for every patient the therapy with the best expected outcome using a voting mechanism. We evaluate its performance by measuring the prescription effectiveness and robustness under alternative ground truths. We show that our methodology improves the expected TAE upon the current baseline by 24.11%, increasing it from 4.56 to 5.66 years. The algorithm performs particularly well for the male (24.3% improvement) and Hispanic (58.41% improvement) subpopulations. Finally, we create an interactive interface, providing physicians with an intuitive, accurate, readily implementable, and effective tool

Dynamic Ground-Holding Policies for a Network of Airports

The yearly congestion costs in the US airline industry are estimated to be of the order of $2 billion. In [6] we have introduced and studied generic integer programming models for the static multi-airport ground holding problem (GHP), the problem of assigning optimal ground holding delays in a general network of airports, so that the total (ground plus airborne) delay cost of all flights is minimized. The present paper is the first attempt to address the multi-airport GHP in a dynamic environment. We propose optimal or near-optimal algorithms to update ground-holding decisions as time progresses and more accurate weather (hence capacity) forecasts become available. We propose several pure IP formulations (most of them 0-1), which have the important advantages of being remarkably compact while capturing the essential aspects of the problem and of being sufficiently flexible to accommodate various degrees of modeling detail. For example, one formulation allows the dynamic updating of the mix between departure and arrival capacities by modifying runway use. These formulations enable one to assign and dynamically update ground holds to a sizable portion of the network of the major congested U.S. or European airports. We also present structural insights on the behaviour of the problem by means of computational results, and we find that our methods perform much better than a heuristic which may approximate, to some extent, current ground-holding practices

On the probabilistic min spanning tree Problem

We study a probabilistic optimization model for min spanning tree, where any vertex vi of the input-graph G(V,E) has some presence probability pi in the final instance G′ ⊂ G that will effectively be optimized. Suppose that when this “real” instance G′ becomes known, a spanning tree T, called anticipatory or a priori spanning tree, has already been computed in G and one can run a quick algorithm (quicker than one that recomputes from scratch), called modification strategy, that modifies the anticipatory tree T in order to fit G ′. The goal is to compute an anticipatory spanning tree of G such that, its modification for any G ′ ⊆ G is optimal for G ′. This is what we call probabilistic min spanning tree problem. In this paper we study complexity and approximation of probabilistic min spanning tree in complete graphs under two distinct modification strategies leading to different complexity results for the problem. For the first of the strategies developed, we also study two natural subproblems of probabilistic min spanning tree, namely, the probabilistic metric min spanning tree and the probabilistic min spanning tree 1,2 that deal with metric complete graphs and complete graphs with edge-weights either 1, or 2, respectively

Theory and Applications of Robust Optimization

In this paper we survey the primary research, both theoretical and applied, in the area of Robust Optimization (RO). Our focus is on the computational attractiveness of RO approaches, as well as the modeling power and broad applicability of the methodology. In addition to surveying prominent theoretical results of RO, we also present some recent results linking RO to adaptable models for multi-stage decision-making problems. Finally, we highlight applications of RO across a wide spectrum of domains, including finance, statistics, learning, and various areas of engineering.Comment: 50 page

A decomposition algorithm for robust lot sizing problem with remanufacturing option

In this paper, we propose a decomposition procedure for constructing robust optimal production plans for reverse inventory systems. Our method is motivated by the need of overcoming the excessive computational time requirements, as well as the inaccuracies caused by imprecise representations of problem parameters. The method is based on a min-max formulation that avoids the excessive conservatism of the dualization technique employed by Wei et al. (2011). We perform a computational study using our decomposition framework on several classes of computer generated test instances and we report our experience. Bienstock and Özbay (2008) computed optimal base stock levels for the traditional lot sizing problem when the production cost is linear and we extend this work here by considering return inventories and setup costs for production. We use the approach of Bertsimas and Sim (2004) to model the uncertainties in the input

Algorithm Engineering in Robust Optimization

Robust optimization is a young and emerging field of research having received a considerable increase of interest over the last decade. In this paper, we argue that the the algorithm engineering methodology fits very well to the field of robust optimization and yields a rewarding new perspective on both the current state of research and open research directions. To this end we go through the algorithm engineering cycle of design and analysis of concepts, development and implementation of algorithms, and theoretical and experimental evaluation. We show that many ideas of algorithm engineering have already been applied in publications on robust optimization. Most work on robust optimization is devoted to analysis of the concepts and the development of algorithms, some papers deal with the evaluation of a particular concept in case studies, and work on comparison of concepts just starts. What is still a drawback in many papers on robustness is the missing link to include the results of the experiments again in the design

Exact Solution Methods for the kk-item Quadratic Knapsack Problem

The purpose of this paper is to solve the 0-1 $k$-item quadratic knapsack problem $(kQKP)$, a problem of maximizing a quadratic function subject to two linear constraints. We propose an exact method based on semidefinite optimization. The semidefinite relaxation used in our approach includes simple rank one constraints, which can be handled efficiently by interior point methods. Furthermore, we strengthen the relaxation by polyhedral constraints and obtain approximate solutions to this semidefinite problem by applying a bundle method. We review other exact solution methods and compare all these approaches by experimenting with instances of various sizes and densities.Comment: 12 page

Fast Optimal Transport Averaging of Neuroimaging Data

Knowing how the Human brain is anatomically and functionally organized at the level of a group of healthy individuals or patients is the primary goal of neuroimaging research. Yet computing an average of brain imaging data defined over a voxel grid or a triangulation remains a challenge. Data are large, the geometry of the brain is complex and the between subjects variability leads to spatially or temporally non-overlapping effects of interest. To address the problem of variability, data are commonly smoothed before group linear averaging. In this work we build on ideas originally introduced by Kantorovich to propose a new algorithm that can average efficiently non-normalized data defined over arbitrary discrete domains using transportation metrics. We show how Kantorovich means can be linked to Wasserstein barycenters in order to take advantage of an entropic smoothing approach. It leads to a smooth convex optimization problem and an algorithm with strong convergence guarantees. We illustrate the versatility of this tool and its empirical behavior on functional neuroimaging data, functional MRI and magnetoencephalography (MEG) source estimates, defined on voxel grids and triangulations of the folded cortical surface.Comment: Information Processing in Medical Imaging (IPMI), Jun 2015, Isle of Skye, United Kingdom. Springer, 201

Dynamic routing problems with fruitful regions: models and evolutionary computation

We introduce the concept of fruitful regions in a dynamic routing context: regions that have a high potential of generating loads to be transported. The objective is to maximise the number of loads transported, while keeping to capacity and time constraints. Loads arrive while the problem is being solved, which makes it a real-time routing problem. The solver is a self-adaptive evolutionary algorithm that ensures feasible solutions at all times. We investigate under what conditions the exploration of fruitful regions improves the effectiveness of the evolutionary algorith