Cycles of Demand and Distribution and Monetary Policy in the US Economy

The role of monetary policy on the cyclical behavior of the labor share and capacity utilization in the US economy is studied empirically. Previous estimation results remain robust; the inclusion of the rate of interest does not alter the underlying specification of the distributive demand regime. Next, the role of monetary policy on net borrowing flows for four institutional sectors are analyzed. Interest rate effects appear most important for households. Based on this finding, implications for countercyclical stabilization policy are spelled out. (author's abstract

The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low Wage Jobs

We estimate the eect of minimum wages on low-wage jobs using 138 prominent state-level minimum wage changes between 1979 and 2016 in the U.S using a dierence-in-dierences approach. We first estimate the eect of the minimum wage increase on employment changes by wage bins throughout the hourly wage distribution. We then focus on the bottom part of the wage distribution and compare the number of excess jobs paying at or slightly above the new minimum wage to the missing jobs paying below it to infer the employment eect. We find that the overall number of low-wage jobs remained essentially unchanged over the five years following the increase. At the same time, the direct eect of the minimum wage on average earnings was amplified by modest wage spillovers at the bottom of the wage distribution. Our estimates by detailed demographic groups show that the lack of job loss is not explained by labor-labor substitution at the bottom of the wage distribution. We also find no evidence of disemployment when we consider higher levels of minimum wages. However, we do find some evidence of reduced employment in tradable sectors. We also show how decomposing the overall employment eect by wage bins allows a transparent way of assessing the plausibility of estimates