Real-time prediction with U.K. monetary aggregates in the presence of model uncertainty

A popular account for the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the fluctuating predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output growth. Yet ex post policy analysis based on heavily revised data suggests no fluctuations in the predictive content of money. In this paper, we investigate the predictive relationships for inflation and output growth using both real-time and heavily revised data. We consider a large set of recursively estimated vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM). These models differ in terms of lag length and the number of cointegrating relationships. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to demonstrate that real-time monetary policymakers faced considerable model uncertainty. The in-sample predictive content of money fluctuated during the 1980s as a result of data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty. This feature is only apparent with real-time data as heavily revised data obscure these fluctuations. Out-of-sample predictive evaluations rarely suggest that money matters for either inflation or real output. We conclude that both data revisions and model uncertainty contributed to the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime

Decoupling Functional and Morphological Convergence, the Study Case of Fossorial Mammalia

Morphological similarity between biological structures in phylogenetically distant species is usually regarded as evidence of convergent evolution. Yet, phenotypic similarity is not always a sign of natural selection acting on a particular trait, therefore adaptation to similar conditions may fail to generate convergent lineages. Herein we tested whether convergent evolution occurred in the humerus of fossorial mammals, one of the most derived biological structures among mammals. Clades adapting to digging kinematics possess unusual, by mammalian standards, humeral shapes. The application of a new, computationally fast morphological test revealed a single significant instance of convergence pertaining to the Japanese fossorial moles (Mogera) and the North-American fossorial moles (Scalopini). Yet, the pattern only manifests when trade-off performance data (derived from finite element analysis) are added to shape data. This result indicates that fossorial mammals have found multiple solutions to the same adaptive challenge, independently moving around multiple adaptive peaks. This study suggests the importance of accounting for functional trade-off measures when studying morpho-functional convergence. We revealed that fossorial mammals, a classic example of convergent evolution, evolved multiple strategies to exploit the subterranean ecotope, characterized by different functional trade-offs rather than converging toward a single adaptive optimum

Revising ethical guidance for the evaluation of programmes and interventions not initiated by researchers

Public health and service delivery programmes, interventions and policies (collectively, ‘programmes’) are typically developed and implemented for the primary purpose of effecting change rather than generating knowledge. Nonetheless, evaluations of these programmes may produce valuable learning that helps determine effectiveness and costs as well as informing design and implementation of future programmes. Such studies might be termed ‘opportunistic evaluations’, since they are responsive to emergent opportunities rather than being studies of interventions that are initiated or designed by researchers. However, current ethical guidance and registration procedures make little allowance for scenarios where researchers have played no role in the development or implementation of a programme, but nevertheless plan to conduct a prospective evaluation. We explore the limitations of the guidance and procedures with respect to opportunistic evaluations, providing a number of examples. We propose that one key missing distinction in current guidance is moral responsibility: researchers can only be held accountable for those aspects of a study over which they have control. We argue that requiring researchers to justify an intervention, programme or policy that would occur regardless of their involvement prevents or hinders research in the public interest without providing any further protections to research participants. We recommend that trial consent and ethics procedures allow for a clear separation of responsibilities for the intervention and the evaluation

Solid State Microdosimetry With Heavy Ions for Space Applications

This work provides information pertaining to the performance of Silicon-On-Insulator (SOI) microdosimeters in heavy ion radiation fields. SOI microdosimeters have been previously tested in light ion radiation fields for both space and therapeutic applications, however their response has not been established in high energy, heavy ion radiation fields which are experienced in space. Irradiations were completed at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory at BNL using 0.6 GeV/u Fe and 1.0 GeV/u Ti ions. Energy deposition and lineal energy spectra were obtained with this device at various depths within a Lucite phantom along the central axis of the beam. The response of which was compared with existing proportional counter data to assess the applicability of SOI microdosimeters to future deployments in space missions

Mechanical Analysis of Feeding Behavior in the Extinct “Terror Bird” Andalgalornis steulleti (Gruiformes: Phorusrhacidae)

The South American phorusrhacid bird radiation comprised at least 18 species of small to gigantic terrestrial predators for which there are no close modern analogs. Here we perform functional analyses of the skull of the medium-sized (∼40 kg) patagornithine phorusrhacid Andalgalornis steulleti (upper Miocene–lower Pliocene, Andalgalá Formation, Catamarca, Argentina) to assess its mechanical performance in a comparative context. Based on computed tomographic (CT) scanning and morphological analysis, the skull of Andalgalornis steulleti is interpreted as showing features reflecting loss of intracranial immobility. Discrete anatomical attributes permitting such cranial kinesis are widespread phorusrhacids outgroups, but this is the first clear evidence of loss of cranial kinesis in a gruiform bird and may be among the best documented cases among all birds. This apomorphic loss is interpreted as an adaptation for enhanced craniofacial rigidity, particularly with regard to sagittal loading. We apply a Finite Element approach to a three-dimensional (3D) model of the skull. Based on regression analysis we estimate the bite force of Andalgalornis at the bill tip to be 133 N. Relative to results obtained from Finite Element Analysis of one of its closest living relatives (seriema) and a large predatory bird (eagle), the phorusrhacid's skull shows relatively high stress under lateral loadings, but low stress where force is applied dorsoventrally (sagittally) and in “pullback” simulations. Given the relative weakness of the skull mediolaterally, it seems unlikely that Andalgalornis engaged in potentially risky behaviors that involved subduing large, struggling prey with its beak. We suggest that it either consumed smaller prey that could be killed and consumed more safely (e.g., swallowed whole) or that it used multiple well-targeted sagittal strikes with the beak in a repetitive attack-and-retreat strategy

Microdosimetry simulations of solar protons within a spacecraft

The microdosimetric spectra derived by silicon microdosimeter in a proton radiation field traversing heterogeneous structures were simulated using the GEANT4 toolkit

The Effects of Biting and Pulling on the Forces Generated during Feeding in the Komodo Dragon (Varanus komodoensis)

In addition to biting, it has been speculated that the forces resulting from pulling on food items may also contribute to feeding success in carnivorous vertebrates. We present an in vivo analysis of both bite and pulling forces in Varanus komodoensis, the Komodo dragon, to determine how they contribute to feeding behavior. Observations of cranial modeling and behavior suggest that V. komodoensis feeds using bite force supplemented by pulling in the caudal/ventrocaudal direction. We tested these observations using force gauges/transducers to measure biting and pulling forces. Maximum bite force correlates with both body mass and total body length, likely due to increased muscle mass. Individuals showed consistent behaviors when biting, including the typical medial-caudal head rotation. Pull force correlates best with total body length, longer limbs and larger postcranial motions. None of these forces correlated well with head dimensions. When pulling, V. komodoensis use neck and limb movements that are associated with increased caudal and ventral oriented force. Measured bite force in Varanus komodoensis is similar to several previous estimations based on 3D models, but is low for its body mass relative to other vertebrates. Pull force, especially in the ventrocaudal direction, would allow individuals to hunt and deflesh with high success without the need of strong jaw adductors. In future studies, pull forces need to be considered for a complete understanding of vertebrate carnivore feeding dynamics

A household-based community health worker programme for non-communicable disease, malnutrition, tuberculosis, HIV and maternal health: a stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial in Neno District, Malawi

BACKGROUND: Community health worker (CHW) programmes are a valuable component of primary care in resource-poor settings. The evidence supporting their effectiveness generally shows improvements in disease-specific outcomes relative to the absence of a CHW programme. In this study, we evaluated expanding an existing HIV and tuberculosis (TB) disease-specific CHW programme into a polyvalent, household-based model that subsequently included non-communicable diseases (NCDs), malnutrition and TB screening, as well as family planning and antenatal care (ANC). METHODS: We conducted a stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial in Neno District, Malawi. Six clusters of approximately 20 000 residents were formed from the catchment areas of 11 healthcare facilities. The intervention roll-out was staggered every 3 months over 18 months, with CHWs receiving a 5-day foundational training for their new tasks and assigned 20-40 households for monthly (or more frequent) visits. FINDINGS: The intervention resulted in a decrease of approximately 20% in the rate of patients defaulting from chronic NCD care each month (-0.8 percentage points (pp) (95% credible interval: -2.5 to 0.5)) while maintaining the already low default rates for HIV patients (0.0 pp, 95% CI: -0.6 to 0.5). First trimester ANC attendance increased by approximately 30% (6.5pp (-0.3, 15.8)) and paediatric malnutrition case finding declined by 10% (-0.6 per 1000 (95% CI -2.5 to 0.8)). There were no changes in TB programme outcomes, potentially due to data challenges. INTERPRETATION: CHW programmes can be successfully expanded to more comprehensively address health needs in a population, although programmes should be carefully tailored to CHW and health system capacity

Training Mid-Level Providers to Treat Severe Non-Communicable Diseases in Neno, Malawi through PEN-Plus Strategies.

Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are a leading cause of worldwide morbidity and mortality, yet access to care in lower-income countries is limited. Rural communities, where poverty levels are high, feel the greatest burden. In Malawi, as elsewhere in the African region, it is particularly challenging for patients in rural districts to obtain care for locally endemic and severe NCDs such as type 1 diabetes, rheumatic heart disease, and sickle cell disease. The Package of Essential NCD Interventions - Plus (PEN-Plus) is a strategy to decentralize care for these severe conditions by enabling local clinicians at intermediate-care facilities to provide services otherwise available only through specialty clinics at central hospitals. Objectives: The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of training mid-level providers to treat severe and chronic NCDs in newly established PEN-Plus clinics in Neno, Malawi. Methods: Our team developed a logic model to describe the anticipated impacts of the intervention on provider knowledge, patient recruitment, and care provision. We applied a retrospective review of routinely collected clinical and administrative data to assess changes along these hypothesized pathways. Findings: Didactic trainings improved provider test scores immediately following training (25-point improvement; p < 0.01), with demonstrated retention of knowledge after 6 months (21-point improvement, p < 0.01). Over 350 patients were enrolled in the first 18 months of program initiation. The PEN-Plus clinic led to significant improvement in the provision of medications and testing across a range of services. Conclusion: Mid-level providers can be successfully trained to treat severe NCDs with physician-guided education, mentorship, and supervision. The PEN-Plus clinic improved patient enrollment, the quality of clinical care and access to essential medications and laboratory supplies. These lessons learned can guide decentralization of NCD care to district hospitals in Malawi and expansion of PEN-Plus services in the African region

Evaluating the impact of a community health worker program on non-communicable disease, malnutrition, tuberculosis, family planning and antenatal care in Neno, Malawi : protocol for a stepped-wedge, cluster randomized controlled trial

Introduction: This protocol concerns the implementation and evaluation of an intervention designed to realign the existing cadre of Community Health Workers (CHWs) in Neno District, Malawi to better support the care needs of the clients they serve. The proposed intervention is a ‘Household Model’ where CHWs will be reassigned to households, rather than to specific patients with HIV and/or TB. Methods and Analysis: Using a stepped-wedge, cluster-randomized design, this study investigates whether high HIV retention rates can be replicated for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and the Model’s impact on TB and pediatric malnutrition case-finding, as well as the uptake of family planning and antenatal care. Eleven sites (health centres and hospitals) were arranged into six clusters (average cluster population 21,800). Primary outcomes include retention in care for HIV and chronic NCDs, TB case finding, pediatric malnutrition case finding, and utilization of early and complete antenatal. Clinical outcomes are based on routinely collected data the Ministry of Health’s District Health Information System 2 and an OpenMRS Electronic Medical Record supported by Partners In Health. Additionally, semi-structured qualitative interviews with various stakeholders will assess community perceptions and context of the Household Model. Ethics and dissemination: Ethics approval has been obtained from the Malawian National Health Science Research Committee (#16/11/1694) in Lilongwe, Malawi; Partners Healthcare Human Research Committee (#2017P000548/PHS) in Somerville, Massachusetts; and by the Biomedical and Scientific Research Ethics Sub-Committee (REGO-2017-2060) at the University of Warwick in Coventry, United Kingdom. Dissemination will include manuscripts for peer-reviewed publication as well as a full report detailing the findings of the intervention for the Malawian Ministry of Health. Registration: Registered on ClinicalTrials.gov in April 2017. Identifier: NCT0310672