Texas Business Review, January 1967

The Business Situation in Texas; Texas Foreign Trade; Texas Building Construction Authorized in NovemberBureau of Business Researc

How are emergent constraints quantifying uncertainty and what do they leave behind?

The use of emergent constraints to quantify uncertainty for key policy relevant quantities such as Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) has become increasingly widespread in recent years. Many researchers, however, claim that emergent constraints are inappropriate or even under-report uncertainty. In this paper we contribute to this discussion by examining the emergent constraints methodology in terms of its underpinning statistical assumptions. We argue that the existing frameworks are based on indefensible assumptions, then show how weakening them leads to a more transparent Bayesian framework wherein hitherto ignored sources of uncertainty, such as how reality might differ from models, can be quantified. We present a guided framework for the quantification of additional uncertainties that is linked to the confidence we can have in the underpinning physical arguments for using linear constraints. We provide a software tool for implementing our general framework for emergent constraints and use it to illustrate the framework on a number of recent emergent constraints for ECS. We find that the robustness of any constraint to additional uncertainties depends strongly on the confidence we can have in the underpinning physics, allowing a future framing of the debate over the validity of a particular constraint around the underlying physical arguments, rather than statistical assumptions

Chemodynamic evolution of dwarf galaxies in tidal fields

The mass-metallicity relation shows that the galaxies with the lowest mass have the lowest metallicities. As most dwarf galaxies are in group environments, interaction effects such as tides could contribute to this trend. We perform a series of smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations of dwarf galaxies in external tidal fields to examine the effects of tides on their metallicities and metallicity gradients. In our simulated galaxies, gravitational instabilities drive gas inwards and produce centralized star formation and a significant metallicity gradient. Strong tides can contribute to these instabilities, but their primary effect is to strip the outer low-metallicity gas, producing a truncated gas disk with a large metallicity. This suggests that the role of tides on the mass-metallicity relation is to move dwarf galaxies to higher metallicities.Comment: Accepted to Ap

Soergel calculus

The monoidal category of Soergel bimodules is an incarnation of the Hecke category, a fundamental object in representation theory. We present this category by generators and relations, using the language of planar diagrammatics. We show that Libedinsky’s light leaves give a basis for morphism spaces and give a new proof and a generalization of Soergel’s classification of the indecomposable Soergel bimodules.</p

Radio-wave propagation in the non-Gaussian interstellar medium

Radio waves propagating from distant pulsars in the interstellar medium (ISM), are refracted by electron density inhomogeneities, so that the intensity of observed pulses fluctuates with time. The theory relating the observed pulse time-shapes to the electron-density correlation function has developed for 30 years, however, two puzzles have remained. First, observational scaling of pulse broadening with the pulsar distance is anomalously strong; it is consistent with the standard model only when non-uniform statistics of electron fluctuations along the line of sight are assumed. Second, the observed pulse shapes are consistent with the standard model only when the scattering material is concentrated in a narrow slab between the pulsar and the Earth. We propose that both paradoxes are resolved at once if one assumes stationary and uniform, but non-Gaussian statistics of the electron-density distribution. Such statistics must be of Levy type, and the propagating ray should exhibit a Levy flight. We propose that a natural realization of such statistics may be provided by the interstellar medium with random electron-density discontinuities. We develop a theory of wave propagation in such a non-Gaussian random medium, and demonstrate its good agreement with observations. The qualitative introduction of the approach and the resolution of the anomalous-scaling paradox was presented earlier in [PRL 91, 131101 (2003); ApJ 584, 791 (2003)].Comment: 27 pages, changes to match published versio

The motion of ascending and descending spheres

Measurements of self-induced motions of spheres ascending and descending in deep water tan