Dealing with uncertainties in environmental burden of disease assessment

Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) combine the number of people affected by disease or mortality in a population and the duration and severity of their condition into one number. The environmental burden of disease is the number of DALYs that can be attributed to environmental factors. Environmental burden of disease estimates enable policy makers to evaluate, compare and prioritize dissimilar environmental health problems or interventions. These estimates often have various uncertainties and assumptions which are not always made explicit. Besides statistical uncertainty in input data and parameters – which is commonly addressed – a variety of other types of uncertainties may substantially influence the results of the assessment. We have reviewed how different types of uncertainties affect environmental burden of disease assessments, and we give suggestions as to how researchers could address these uncertainties. We propose the use of an uncertainty typology to identify and characterize uncertainties. Finally, we argue that uncertainties need to be identified, assessed, reported and interpreted in order for assessment results to adequately support decision making

Physiological control on carbon isotope fractionation in marine phytoplankton

One of the great challenges in biogeochemical research over the past half a century has been to quantify and understand the mechanisms underlying stable carbon isotope fractionation (ϵp) in phytoplankton in response to changing CO2 concentrations. This interest is partly grounded in the use of fossil photosynthetic organism remains as a proxy for past atmospheric CO2 levels. Phytoplankton organic carbon is depleted in 13C compared to its source because of kinetic fractionation by the enzyme RubisCO during photosynthetic carbon fixation, as well as through physiological pathways upstream of RubisCO. Moreover, other factors such as nutrient limitation, variations in light regime as well as phytoplankton culturing systems and inorganic carbon manipulation approaches may confound the influence of aquatic CO2 concentrations [CO2] on ϵp. Here, based on experimental data compiled from the literature, we assess which underlying physiological processes cause the observed differences in ϵp for various phytoplankton groups in response to C-demand/C-supply, i.e., particulate organic carbon (POC) production / [CO2]) and test potential confounding factors. Culturing approaches and methods of carbonate chemistry manipulation were found to best explain the differences in ϵp between studies, although day length was an important predictor for ϵp in haptophytes. Extrapolating results from culturing experiments to natural environments and for proxy applications therefore require caution, and it should be carefully considered whether culture methods and experimental conditions are representative of natural environments

Stabilized immersed isogeometric analysis for the Navier-Stokes-Cahn-Hilliard equations, with applications to binary-fluid flow through porous media

Binary-fluid flows can be modeled using the Navier-Stokes-Cahn-Hilliard equations, which represent the boundary between the fluid constituents by a diffuse interface. The diffuse-interface model allows for complex geometries and topological changes of the binary-fluid interface. In this work, we propose an immersed isogeometric analysis framework to solve the Navier-Stokes-Cahn-Hilliard equations on domains with geometrically complex external binary-fluid boundaries. The use of optimal-regularity B-splines results in a computationally efficient higher-order method. The key features of the proposed framework are a generalized Navier-slip boundary condition for the tangential velocity components, Nitsche's method for the convective impermeability boundary condition, and skeleton- and ghost-penalties to guarantee stability. A binary-fluid Taylor-Couette flow is considered for benchmarking. Porous medium simulations demonstrate the ability of the immersed isogeometric analysis framework to model complex binary-fluid flow phenomena such as break-up and coalescence in complex geometries

Sociodemographic profiles, educational attainment and physical activity associated with The Daily Mile™ registration in primary schools in England – a national cross-sectional linkage study

Objective To examine primary school and local authority characteristics associated with registration for The Daily Mile (TDM), an active mile initiative aimed at increasing physical activity in children. Design A cross-sectional linkage study using routinely collected data. Setting All state funded primary schools in England from 2012-2018(n=15,815). Results 3,502 of all 15,815(22.1%) state funded primary schools in England were registered to do TDM, ranging from 16% in the East Midlands region to 31% in Inner London. Primary schools registered for TDM had larger mean pupil numbers compared with schools that had not registered (300 vs 269 respectively). There was a higher proportion of TDM registered schools in urban areas compared with non-urban areas. There was local authority variation in the likelihood of school registration (ICC: 0.094). After adjusting for school and local authority characteristics, schools located in a major urban conurbation (OR 1.46 (95%CI:1.24-1.71) urban vs. rural) and schools with a higher proportion of disadvantaged pupils had higher odds of being registered to the TDM (OR 1.16 (95%CI:1.02-1.33)). Area based physical activity and schools’ educational attainment was not significantly associated with registration to TDM. Conclusion One in five primary schools in England has registered for The Daily Mile since 2012. TDM appears to be a wide-reaching school based physical activity intervention that is reaching more disadvantaged primary school populations in urban areas where obesity prevalence is highest. TDM registered schools include those with both high and low educational attainment and are in areas with high and low physical activit

Feasibility of the debris ring transit method for the solar-like star HD 107146 by an occulted galaxy

Occulting galaxy pairs have been used to determine the transmission and dust composition within the foreground galaxy. Observations of the nearly face-on ring-like debris disk around the solar-like star HD 107146 by HST/ACS in 2004 and HST/STIS in 2011 reveal that the debris ring is occulting an extended background galaxy over the subsequent decades. Our aim is to use 2004 HST observations of this system to model the galaxy and apply this to the 2011 observation in order to measure the transmission of the galaxy through the outer regions of the debris disk. We model the galaxy with an exponential disk and a S\'{e}rsic pseudo-bulge in the V- and I-band, but irregularities due to small scale structure from star forming regions limits accurate determination of the foreground dust distribution. We show that debris ring transit photometry is feasible for optical depth increases of $\Delta \tau \geq$ 0.04 ($1 \sigma$) on tens of au scales the width of the background galaxy { when the 2011 STIS data are compared directly with new HST/STIS observations, instead of the use of a smoothed model as a reference.Comment: 15 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication by MNRA

Impact of The Daily Mile on children's physical and mental health, and educational attainment in primary schools: iMprOVE cohort study protocol

INTRODUCTION: School-based active mile initiatives such as The Daily Mile (TDM) are widely promoted to address shortfalls in meeting physical activity recommendations. The iMprOVE Study aims to examine the impact of TDM on children's physical and mental health and educational attainment throughout primary school. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: iMprOVE is a longitudinal quasi-experimental cohort study. We will send a survey to all state-funded primary schools in Greater London to identify participation in TDM. The survey responses will be used for non-random allocation to either the intervention group (Daily Mile schools) or to the control group (non-Daily Mile schools). We aim to recruit 3533 year 1 children (aged 5-6 years) from 77 primary schools and follow them up annually until the end of their primary school years. Data collection taking place at baseline (children in school year 1) and each primary school year thereafter includes device-based measures of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and questionnaires to measure mental health (Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire) and educational attainment (ratings from 'below expected' to 'above expected levels'). The primary outcome is the mean change in MVPA minutes from baseline to year 6 during the school day among the intervention group compared with controls. We will use multilevel linear regression models adjusting for sociodemographic data and participation in TDM. The study is powered to detect a 10% (5.5 min) difference between the intervention and control group which would be considered clinically significant. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics has been approved from Imperial College Research Ethics Committee, reference 20IC6127. Key findings will be disseminated to the public through research networks, social, print and media broadcasts, community engagement opportunities and schools. We will work with policy-makers for direct application and impact of our findings

Significant Digits: Responsible use of quantitative information

We live in an age when good policies are assumed to be evidence-based. And that evidential base is assumed to be at its best when expressed in numbers. The digital information may be derived from quantitative data organised in statistics, or from qualitative data organised in indicators. Either way, evidence in digital form provides the accepted foundation of policy arguments over a very broad range of issues. In the policy realm there are frequent debates over particular policy issues and their associated evidence. But only rarely is the nature of the evidence called into question. Such a faith in numbers can be dangerous. Policies in economic and financial policy, based on numbers whose significance was less than assumed, recently turned out to be quite disastrously wrong. Other examples can easily be cited. The decades-long period of blaming dietary fats for heart disease, rather than sugar, is a notable recent case. We are concerned here with the systemic problem: whether we are regularly placing too much of an evidentiary burden on quantitative sciences whose strength and maturity are inherently inadequate. The harm that has been done to those sciences, as well as to the policy process, should be recognised. Only in that way can future errors be avoided.JRC.DDG.01-Econometrics and applied statistic

Timescale uncertainty of abrupt events in the geologic record arising from unsteady sedimentation

Defining the time scale of abrupt events in the stratigraphic record is a primary goal of high-resolution paleoclimate analysis. A significant hurdle in this endeavor is that abrupt, i.e., millennial and submillennial, events in deep time can rarely be temporally constrained accurately owing to the typical absence of high-precision age control at the scale of the events. Instead, the duration of abrupt events is commonly estimated via the linear partitioning of time between age control points (e.g., defined using astronomical cycles or radiometric dates) that bracket the event and span longer time intervals. The flaw with this approach is that sedimentation is an unsteady process and does not proceed linearly with time. Here a numerical model, parameterized by geologic data, is used to quantify theoretical time-scale uncertainties that result from unsteady sedimentation. This work demonstrates that the duration of assumed millennial events estimated via a linear partitioning approach may be significantly in error, even in complete, astronomically calibrated and unbioturbated successions best suited to the study of abrupt paleoclimate change. The uncertainties established in this study are largely a function of the precise statistical properties of the sedimentation process, properties that are difficult to constrain empirically, particularly over short time spans. Nevertheless, this study illustrates how unsteady sedimentation sets an important limit on the attainable temporal resolution of the stratigraphic record, with consequent implications for defining accurately the rates and durations of rapid events in Earth history