28 research outputs found
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COVID-19 reopening strategies at the county level in the face of uncertainty: Multiple Models for Outbreak Decision Support
Policymakers make decisions about COVID-19 management in the face of considerable uncertainty. We convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate reopening strategies for a mid- sized county in the United States, in a novel process designed to fully express scientific uncertainty while reducing linguistic uncertainty and cognitive biases. For the scenarios considered, the consensus from 17 distinct models was that a second outbreak will occur within 6 months of reopening, unless schools and non-essential workplaces remain closed. Up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening; non-essential business closures reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Intermediate reopening interventions identified no win-win situations; there was a trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures. Aggregate results captured twice the uncertainty of individual models, providing a more complete expression of risk for decision-making purposes.Integrative Biolog
Steps towards Preventive HIV Treatment in Fujian, China: Problems Identified via an Assessment of Initial Antiretroviral Therapy Provision
Background:At the end of 2009, a total of 501 AIDS patients were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Fujian Province in China, yet there were no assessments to determine treatment efficacy and HIV-1 preventive potency under the current health care delivery system.Methods:During the period of 2005-2009, we assessed the outcomes of initial ART by following up 381 patients for 12 months in Fujian Province. CD4+ T-lymphocyte (CD4) count, plasma viral load (VL), and patient characteristics were analysed. The results were compared between 4 groups divided by the baseline CD4 values at the 25, 50 (median), and 75 percentiles.Findings:Over three-quarters of the subjects reported heterosexual contact as the probable route of transmission. After 12 months of ART, CD4 recovery varied between the 4 groups (P < 0.001), but VL sharply declined regardless of the baseline CD4 count (P = 0.136). Although this VL decline indicates the potency of ART as an HIV-1 prevention tool, the time between positive diagnosis and ART initiation suggests serious delay in both diagnosis and treatment; the medians of periods for the lowest and highest baseline CD4 quartiles were 1.2 and 9.6 months, respectively.Conclusion:Current limitations in VL determination make it difficult to assess the efficacy of initial ART, and delays in diagnosis and treatment suggest that subjects contributed to HIV-1 transmission while they were not receiving ART. The current National Free ART scheme does not provide free treatment for sexually transmitted infection (STI), and there is no link between ART and the STI care delivery system. This may interfere with the HIV-1 preventive potency of ART. We highly recommend establishing a collaborating mechanism with STI care, strengthening the VL determination system, and promoting HIV tests and early ART initiation