Large-eddy simulation and experimental study of heat transfer, nitric oxide emissions and combustion instability in a swirled turbulent high-pressure burner

Nitric oxide formation in gas turbine combustion depends on four key factors: flame stabilization, heat transfer, fuel-air mixing and combustion instability. The design of modern gas turbine burners requires delicate compromises between fuel efficiency, emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and combustion stability. Burner designs allowing substantial NOx reduction are often prone to combustion oscillations. These oscillations also change the NOx fields. Being able to predict not only the main species field in a burner but also the pollutant and the oscillation levels is now a major challenge for combustion modelling. This must include a realistic treatment of unsteady acoustic phenomena (which create instabilities) and also of heat transfer mechanisms (convection and radiation) which control NOx generation. In this work, large-eddy simulation (LES) is applied to a realistic gas turbine combustion chamber configuration where pure methane is injected through multiple holes in a cone-shaped burner. In addition to a non-reactive simulation, this article presents three reactive simulations and compares them to experimental results. The first reactive simulation neglects effects of cooling air on flame stabilization and heat losses by radiation and convection. The second reactive simulation shows how cooling air and heat transfer affect nitric oxide emissions. Finally, the third reactive simulation shows the effects of combustion instability on nitric oxide emissions. Additionally, the combustion instability is analysed in detail, including the evaluation of the terms in the acoustic energy equation and the identification of the mechanism driving the oscillation. Results confirm that LES of gas turbine combustion requires not only an accurate chemical scheme and realistic heat transfer models but also a proper description of the acoustics in order to predict nitric oxide emissions and pressure oscillation levels simultaneousl

Birth weight influences cardiac structure, function and disease risk: evidence of a causal association

Background and Aims Low birth weight is a common pregnancy complication, which has been associated with higher risk of cardiometabolic disease in later life. Prior Mendelian randomization (MR) studies exploring this question do not distinguish the mechanistic contributions of variants that directly influence birth weight through the foetal genome (direct foetal effects), vs. variants influencing birth weight indirectly by causing an adverse intrauterine environment (indirect maternal effects). In this study, MR was used to assess whether birth weight, independent of intrauterine influences, is associated with cardiovascular disease risk and measures of adverse cardiac structure and function. Methods Uncorrelated (r2 < .001), genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10−8) single nucleotide polymorphisms were extracted from genome-wide association studies summary statistics for birth weight overall, and after isolating direct foetal effects only. Inverse-variance weighted MR was utilized for analyses on outcomes of atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, heart failure, ischaemic stroke, and 16 measures of cardiac structure and function. Multiple comparisons were accounted for by Benjamini–Hochberg correction. Results Lower genetically-predicted birth weight, isolating direct foetal effects only, was associated with an increased risk of coronary artery disease (odds ratio 1.21, 95% confidence interval 1.06–1.37; P = .031), smaller chamber volumes, and lower stroke volume, but higher contractility. Conclusions The results of this study support a causal role of low birth weight in cardiovascular disease, even after accounting for the influence of the intrauterine environment. This suggests that individuals with a low birth weight may benefit from early targeted cardiovascular disease prevention strategies, independent of whether this was linked to an adverse intrauterine environment during gestation

Atmospheric pressure roll-to-roll plasma enhanced CVD of high quality silica-like bilayer encapsulation films

A glow like atmospheric pressure dielectric barrier discharge in a roll-to-roll setup was used to synthesize 90 nm silica-like bilayer encapsulation films composed of a 30 nm dense “barrier layer” and a comparatively less dense 60 nm “buffer layer” onto a polyethylene 2,6 naphthalate substrate by means of plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition. Tetraethyl orthosilicate was used as the precursor gas, together with a mixture of nitrogen, oxygen, and argon. The microstructure, chemical composition, morphology, and permeation properties of the films were studied as a function of the specific energy delivered per precursor molecule, and oxygen concentration in the gas mixture, during the deposition of the barrier layer. The presence of the buffer layer within the bilayer architecture critically enhanced the encapsulation performance of the bilayer films, and this in conjunction with increasing the specific energy delivered per precursor molecule during the barrier layer deposition to a value of 20 keV, enabled an effective water vapor transmission rate as low as 6.9 × 10−4 g m−2 d−1 (at 40 °C, 90% relative humidity (RH)) to be achieved. Furthermore, the bilayer film structure has given rise to a remarkable 50% reduction in deposition energy consumption per barrier area with respect to single layer silica-like films of equivalent encapsulation performance and thickness.</p

Clinical profiles of patients colonized or infected with extended-spectrum beta-lactamase producing Enterobacteriaceae isolates: a 20 month retrospective study at a Belgian University Hospital

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Description of the clinical pictures of patients colonized or infected by ESBL-producing <it>Enterobacteriaceae </it>isolates and admitted to hospital are rather scarce in Europe. However, a better delineation of the clinical patterns associated with the carriage of ESBL-producing isolates may allow healthcare providers to identify more rapidly at risk patients. This matter is of particular concern because of the growing proportion of ESBL-producing <it>Enterobacteriaceae </it>species isolates worldwide.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We undertook a descriptive analysis of 114 consecutive patients in whom ESBL-producing <it>Enterobacteriaceae </it>isolates were collected from clinical specimens over a 20-month period. Clinical data were obtained through retrospective analysis of medical record charts. Microbiological cultures were carried out by standard laboratory methods.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The proportion of ESBL-producing <it>Enterobacteriaceae </it>strains after exclusion of duplicate isolates was 4.5% and the incidence rate was 4.3 cases/1000 patients admitted. Healthcare-associated acquisition was important (n = 104) while community-acquisition was less frequently found (n = 10). Among the former group, two-thirds of the patients were aged over 65 years and 24% of these were living in nursing homes. Sixty-eight (65%) of the patients with healthcare-associated ESBL, were considered clinically infected. In this group, the number and severity of co-morbidities was high, particularly including diabetes mellitus and chronic renal insufficiency. Other known risk factors for ESBL colonization or infection such as prior antibiotic exposure, urinary catheter or previous hospitalisation were also often found. The four main diagnostic categories were: urinary tract infections, lower respiratory tract infections, septicaemia and intra-abdominal infections. For hospitalized patients, the median hospital length of stay was 23 days and the average mortality rate during hospitalization was 13% (Confidence Interval 95%: 7-19). <it>Escherichia coli</it>, by far, accounted as the most common ESBL-producing <it>Enterobacteriaceae </it>species (77/114; [68%]) while CTX-M-1 group was by far the most prevalent ESBL enzyme (n = 56).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In this retrospective study, the clinical profiles of patients carrying healthcare-associated ESBL-producing <it>Enterobacteriacae </it>is characterized by a high prevalence rate of several major co-morbidities and potential known risk factors. Both, the length of hospital stay and overall hospital mortality rates were particularly high. A prospective case-control matched study should be designed and performed in order to control for possible inclusion bias.</p

MRSA prevalence in european healthcare settings: a review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>During the past two decades, methicillin-resistant <it>Staphylococcus aureus </it>(MRSA) has become increasingly common as a source of nosocomial infections. Most studies of MRSA surveillance were performed during outbreaks, so that results are not applicable to settings in which MRSA is endemic. This paper gives an overview of MRSA prevalence in hospitals and other healthcare institutions in non-outbreak situations in Western Europe.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A keyword search was conducted in the Medline database (2000 through June 2010). Titles and abstracts were screened to identify studies on MRSA prevalence in patients in non-outbreak situations in European healthcare facilities. Each study was assessed using seven quality criteria (outcome definition, time unit, target population, participants, observer bias, screening procedure, swabbing sites) and categorized as 'good', 'fair', or 'poor'.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>31 observational studies were included in the review. Four of the studies were of good quality. Surveillance screening of MRSA was performed in long-term care (11 studies) and acute care (20 studies). Prevalence rates varied over a wide range, from less than 1% to greater than 20%. Prevalence in the acute care and long-term care settings was comparable. The prevalence of MRSA was expressed in various ways - the percentage of MRSA among patients (range between 1% and 24%), the percentage of MRSA among <it>S. aureus </it>isolates (range between 5% and 54%), and as the prevalence density (range between 0.4 and 4 MRSA cases per 1,000 patient days). The screening policy differed with respect to time points (on admission or during hospital stay), selection criteria (all admissions or patients at high risk for MRSA) and anatomical sampling sites.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This review underlines the methodological differences between studies of MRSA surveillance. For comparisons between different healthcare settings, surveillance methods and outcome calculations should be standardized.</p

Antimicrobial susceptibility patterns and characterization of clinical isolates of Staphylococcus aureus in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance of Staphylococcus aureus especially methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) continues to be a problem for clinicians worldwide. However, few data on the antibiotic susceptibility patterns of S. aureus isolates in South Africa have been reported and the prevalence of MRSA in the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province is unknown. In addition, information on the characterization of S. aureus in this province is unavailable. This study investigated the susceptibility pattern of 227 S. aureus isolates from the KZN province, South Africa. In addition, characterization of methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA) and MRSA are reported in this survey. METHODS: The in-vitro activities of 20 antibiotics against 227 consecutive non-duplicate S. aureus isolates from clinical samples in KZN province, South Africa were determined by the disk-diffusion technique. Isolates resistant to oxacillin and mupirocin were confirmed by PCR detection of the mecA and mup genes respectively. PCR-RFLP of the coagulase gene was employed in the characterization of MSSA and MRSA. RESULTS: All the isolates were susceptible to vancomycin, teicoplanin and fusidic acid, and 26.9% of isolates studied were confirmed as MRSA. More than 80% of MRSA were resistant to at least four classes of antibiotics and isolates grouped in antibiotype 8 appears to be widespread in the province. The MSSA were also susceptible to streptomycin, neomycin and minocycline, while less than 1% was resistant to chloramphenicol, ciprofloxacin, rifampicin and mupirocin. The inducible MLS(B )phenotype was detected in 10.8% of MSSA and 82% of MRSA respectively, and one MSSA and one MRSA exhibited high-level resistance to mupirocin. There was good correlation between antibiotyping and PCR-RFLP of the coagulase gene in the characterization of MRSA in antibiotypes 1, 5 and 12. CONCLUSION: In view of the high resistance rates of MRSA to gentamicin, erythromycin, clindamycin, rifampicin and trimethoprim, treatment of MRSA infections in this province with these antibacterial agents would be unreliable. There is an emerging trend of mupirocin resistance among S. aureus isolates in the province. PCR-RFLP of the coagulase gene was able to distinguish MSSA from MRSA and offers an attractive option to be considered in the rapid epidemiological analysis of S. aureus in South Africa. Continuous surveillance on resistance patterns and characterization of S. aureus in understanding new and emerging trends in South Africa is of utmost importance

Examining techniques for measuring the effects of nutrients on mental performance and mood state

Purpose: Intake of specific nutrients has been linked to mental states and various indices of cognitive performance although the effects are often subtle and difficult to interpret. Measurement of so-called objective variables (e.g. reaction times) is often considered to be the gold standard for assessing outcomes in this field of research. It can, however, be argued that data on subjective experience (e.g. mood) are also important and may enrich existing objective data. The aim of this review is to evaluate methods for measuring mental performance and mood, considering the definition of subjective mood and the validity of measures of subjective experience. Methods: A multi-stakeholder expert group was invited by ILSI Europe to come to a consensus around the utility of objective and subjective measurement in this field, which forms the basis of the paper. Therefore, the present review reflects a succinct overview of the science but is not intended to be a systematic review. Results: The proposed approach extends the traditional methodology using standard ‘objective’ measurements to also include the consumers’ subjective experiences in relation to food. Specific recommendations include 1) using contemporary methods to capture transient mood states; 2) using sufficiently sensitive measures to capture effects of nutritional intervention; 3) considering the possibility that subjective and objective responses will occur over different time frames; and 4) recognition of the importance of expectancy and placebo effects for subjective measures. Conclusions: The consensus reached was that the most informative approach should involve collection and consideration of both objective and subjective data

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world