Cruise Report 65-S-5 - Rockfish

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Beyond 'anti-smacking': challenging parental violence and coercion

The anti-smacking lobby concentrates on persuading parents not to smack, and the government to prohibit smacking by law. There is much evidence that smacking children is unnecessary and dangerous, and yet smacking continues to be widely practised and accepted in Britain. Our literature review found two underlying reasons for this contradiction: beliefs that children are pre-human becomings rather than real human beings, and support for ‘parents rights’ over children’s human rights. We suggest that the anti-smacking lobby’s important work will have limited effect until it tackles these two issues

File card marker Patent

Describing device for flagging punched business card

Software systems for modeling articulated figures

Research in computer animation and simulation of human task performance requires sophisticated geometric modeling and user interface tools. The software for a research environment should present the programmer with a powerful but flexible substrate of facilities for displaying and manipulating geometric objects, yet insure that future tools have a consistent and friendly user interface. Jack is a system which provides a flexible and extensible programmer and user interface for displaying and manipulating complex geometric figures, particularly human figures in a 3D working environment. It is a basic software framework for high-performance Silicon Graphics IRIS workstations for modeling and manipulating geometric objects in a general but powerful way. It provides a consistent and user-friendly interface across various applications in computer animation and simulation of human task performance. Currently, Jack provides input and control for applications including lighting specification and image rendering, anthropometric modeling, figure positioning, inverse kinematics, dynamic simulation, and keyframe animation

A specification test for nonlinear nonstationary models

We provide a limit theory for a general class of kernel smoothed U-statistics that may be used for specification testing in time series regression with nonstationary data. The test framework allows for linear and nonlinear models with endogenous regressors that have autoregressive unit roots or near unit roots. The limit theory for the specification test depends on the self-intersection local time of a Gaussian process. A new weak convergence result is developed for certain partial sums of functions involving nonstationary time series that converges to the intersection local time process. This result is of independent interest and is useful in other applications. Simulations examine the finite sample performance of the test.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-AOS975 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The Mysteries of Trend

Trends are ubiquitous in economic discourse, play a role in much economic theory, and have been intensively studied in econometrics over the last three decades. Yet the empirical economist, forecaster, and policy maker have little guidance from theory about the source and nature of trend behavior, even less guidance about practical formulations, and are heavily reliant on a limited class of stochastic trend, deterministic drift, and structural break models to use in applications. A vast econometric literature has emerged but the nature of trend remains elusive. In spite of being the dominant characteristic in much economic data, having a role in policy assessment that is often vital, and attracting intense academic and popular interest that extends well beyond the subject of economics, trends are little understood. This essay discusses some implications of these limitations, mentions some research opportunities, and briefly illustrates the extent of the difficulties in learning about trend phenomena even when the time series are far longer than those that are available in economics.Climate change, Etymology of trend, Paleoclimatology, Policy, Stochastic trend

Reform and Representation: A New Method Applied to Recent Electoral Changes

Can electoral reforms such as an independent redistricting commission and the top-two primary create conditions that lead to better legislative representation? We explore this question by presenting a new method for measuring a key indicator of representation - the congruence between a legislator's ideological position and the average position of her district's voters. Our novel approach combines two methods: the joint classification of voters and political candidates on the same ideological scale, along with multilevel regression and post-stratification to estimate the position of the average voter across many districts in multiple elections. After validating our approach, we use it to study the recent impact of reforms in California, showing that they did not bring their hoped-for effects