Annex 19 : predictive model for the dengue incidences in Sri Lanka using mobile network big data

The study constructs a usable predictive model for any given Medical Officer of Health (MOH) division, which is the smallest medical administrative district in Sri Lanka, by taking human mobility into account. It includes the importation of dengue into immunologically ’naive’ regions. Derived mobility values for each region of the country are weighted using reported past dengue cases. The study introduces a generalizable methodology to fuse big data sources with traditional data sources, using machine learning techniques. Mobile Network Big Data (MNBD) consists of data categories such as Call Detail Records (CDR), Internet access usage records, and airtime recharge records

Conflict in the Indian Kashmir Valley I: exposure to violence

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: India and Pakistan have disputed ownership of the Kashmir Valley region for many years, resulting in several conflicts since the end of partition in 1947. Very little is known about the prevalence of violence and insecurity in this population. METHODS: We undertook a two-stage cluster household survey in two districts (30 villages) of the Indian part of Kashmir to assess experiences with violence and mental health status among the conflict-affected Kashmiri population. The article presents our findings for confrontations with violence. Data were collected for recent events (last 3 months) and those occurring since the start of the conflict. Informed consent was obtained for all interviews. RESULTS: 510 interviews were completed. Respondents reported frequent direct confrontations with violence since the start of conflict, including exposure to crossfire (85.7%), round up raids (82.7%), the witnessing of torture (66.9%), rape (13.3%), and self-experience of forced labour (33.7%), arrests/kidnapping (16.9%), torture (12.9%), and sexual violence (11.6%). Males reported more confrontations with violence than females, and had an increased likelihood of having directly experienced physical/mental maltreatment (OR 3.9, CI: 2.7-5.7), violation of their modesty (OR 3.6, CI: 1.9-6.8) and injury (OR 3.5, CI: 1.4-8.7). Males also had high odds of self-being arrested/kidnapped (OR 8.0, CI: 4.1-15.5). CONCLUSION: The civilian population in Kashmir is exposed to high levels of violence, as demonstrated by the high frequency of deliberate events as detention, hostage, and torture. The reported violence may result in substantial health, including mental health problems. Males reported significantly more confrontations with almost all violent events; this can be explained by higher participation in outdoor activities

The Evaluation of a Rapid In Situ HIV Confirmation Test in a Programme with a High Failure Rate of the WHO HIV Two-Test Diagnostic Algorithm

BACKGROUND: Concerns about false-positive HIV results led to a review of testing procedures used in a Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) HIV programme in Bukavu, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. In addition to the WHO HIV rapid diagnostic test algorithm (RDT) (two positive RDTs alone for HIV diagnosis) used in voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) sites we evaluated in situ a practical field-based confirmation test against western blot WB. In addition, we aimed to determine the false-positive rate of the WHO two-test algorithm compared with our adapted protocol including confirmation testing, and whether weakly reactive compared with strongly reactive rapid test results were more likely to be false positives. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 2864 clients presenting to MSF VCT centres in Bukavu during January to May 2006 were tested using Determine HIV-1/2 and UniGold HIV rapid tests in parallel by nurse counsellors. Plasma samples on 229 clients confirmed as double RDT positive by laboratory retesting were further tested using both WB and the Orgenics Immunocomb Combfirm HIV confirmation test (OIC-HIV). Of these, 24 samples were negative or indeterminate by WB representing a false-positive rate of the WHO two-test algorithm of 10.5% (95%CI 6.6-15.2). 17 of the 229 samples were weakly positive on rapid testing and all were negative or indeterminate by WB. The false-positive rate fell to 3.3% (95%CI 1.3-6.7) when only strong-positive rapid test results were considered. Agreement between OIC-HIV and WB was 99.1% (95%CI 96.9-99.9%) with no false OIC-HIV positives if stringent criteria for positive OIC-HIV diagnoses were used. CONCLUSIONS: The WHO HIV two-test diagnostic algorithm produced an unacceptably high level of false-positive diagnoses in our setting, especially if results were weakly positive. The most probable causes of the false-positive results were serological cross-reactivity or non-specific immune reactivity. Our findings show that the OIC-HIV confirmation test is practical and effective in field contexts. We propose that all double-positive HIV RDT samples should undergo further testing to confirm HIV seropositivity until the accuracy of the RDT testing algorithm has been established at programme level

Health, ageing and private health insurance: baseline results from the 45 and Up Study cohort

Correction to Banks E, Jorm L, Lujic S, Rogers K. Health, ageing and private health insurance: baseline results from the 45 and Up Study cohort. ANZ Health Policy 2009; 6: 16

Conflict in the Indian Kashmir Valley II: psychosocial impact

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: India and Pakistan have disputed ownership of the Kashmir Valley region for many years, resulting in high level of exposure to violence among the civilian population of Kashmir (India). A survey was done as part of routine programme evaluation to assess confrontation with violence and its consequences on mental health, health service usage, and socio-economic functioning. METHODS: We undertook a two-stage cluster household survey in two districts of Kashmir (India) using questionnaires adapted from other conflict areas. Analysis was stratified for gender. RESULTS: Over one-third of respondents (n=510) were found to have symptoms of psychological distress (33.3%, CI: 28.3-38.4); women scored significantly higher (OR 2.5; CI: 1.7-3.6). A third of respondents had contemplated suicide (33.3%, CI: 28.3-38.4). Feelings of insecurity were associated with higher levels of psychological distress for both genders (males: OR 2.4, CI: 1.3-4.4; females: OR 1.9, CI: 1.1-3.3). Among males, violation of modesty, (OR 3.3, CI: 1.6-6.8), forced displacement, (OR 3.5, CI: 1.7-7.1), and physical disability resulting from violence (OR 2.7, CI: 1.2-5.9) were associated with greater levels of psychological distress; for women, risk factors for psychological distress included dependency on others for daily living (OR 2.4, CI: 1.3-4.8), the witnessing of killing (OR 1.9, CI: 1.1-3.4), and torture (OR 2.1, CI: 1.2-3.7). Self-rated poor health (male: OR 4.4, CI: 2.4-8.1; female: OR 3.4, CI: 2.0-5.8) and being unable to work (male: OR 6.7, CI: 3.5-13.0; female: OR 2.6, CI: 1.5-4.4) were associated with mental distress. CONCLUSIONS: The ongoing conflict exacts a huge toll on the communities' mental well-being. We found high levels of psychological distress that impacts on daily life and places a burden on the health system. Ongoing feelings of personal vulnerability (not feeling safe) were associated with high levels of psychological distress. Community mental health programmes should be considered as a way reduce the pressure on the health system and improve socio-economic functioning of those suffering from mental health problems

The Mutant Form of Lamin A that Causes Hutchinson-Gilford Progeria Is a Biomarker of Cellular Aging in Human Skin

Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome (HGPS, OMIM 176670) is a rare disorder characterized by accelerated aging and early death, frequently from stroke or coronary artery disease. 90% of HGPS cases carry the LMNA G608G (GGC>GGT) mutation within exon 11 of LMNA, activating a splice donor site that results in production of a dominant negative form of lamin A protein, denoted progerin. Screening 150 skin biopsies from unaffected individuals (newborn to 97 years) showed that a similar splicing event occurs in vivo at a low level in the skin at all ages. While progerin mRNA remains low, the protein accumulates in the skin with age in a subset of dermal fibroblasts and in a few terminally differentiated keratinocytes. Progerin-positive fibroblasts localize near the basement membrane and in the papillary dermis of young adult skin; however, their numbers increase and their distribution reaches the deep reticular dermis in elderly skin. Our findings demonstrate that progerin expression is a biomarker of normal cellular aging and may potentially be linked to terminal differentiation and senescence in elderly individuals

Embedding cultural competence in faculty : a mixed-methods evaluation of an applied Indigenous proficiency workshop

One of the most pressing issues in Australian society is the gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous health and life expectancies (Marmot, 2017). Australia agreed with the World Health Organisation’s 2008 Closing the Gap in a Generation report (WHO, 2008), spending approximately 5.6% of government expenditure towards ameliorating this gap (Gardiner-Garden & Simon-Davies, 2012), yet there have been only minimal positive outcomes (Alford, 2015; Gannon, 2018). In applied terms, this means Indigenous people are still dying younger (Anderson et al., 2016), scoring higher on psychological distress (Markwick, Ansari, Sullivan, & McNeil, 2015) and suffering poorer indices on all chronic diseases (e.g. Walsh & Kangaharan, 2016; Thompson, Talley, & Kong, 2017). The level of complexity involved in addressing these “wicked” or seemingly “impossible to solve” health problems is made worse by the lack of any pan-national strategic planning and/or intervention evaluation (Lokuge et al., 2017), even though there has been a plethora of programs and projects designed to improve Indigenous health (see for example, AGPC, 2016). Leaders in health and educational institutions must consider why there is a lack of progress in closing the gap in Indigenous health and life expectancies. Addressing the inequities in Indigenous health requires a determinant of health approach (Mitrou et al., 2014), as 39% of the gap in health outcomes can be explained by social determinates (AIHW, 2017; Markwick, Ansari, Sullivan, Parsons, & McNeil, 2014). The social determinant considered to most reliably predict Indigenous poor health is racism (Kelaher, Ferdinand, & Paradies, 2014; Paradies, 2006; Paradies & Cunningham, 2009; Paradies et al., 2015; Paradies, Truong, & Priest, 2014)