Demand uncertainty and lot sizing in manufacturing systems: the effects of forecasting errors and mis-specification

This paper proposes a methodology for examining the effect of demand uncertainty and forecast error on lot sizing methods, unit costs and customer service levels in MRP type manufacturing systems. A number of cost structures were considered which depend on the expected time between orders. A simple two-level MRP system where the product is manufactured for stock was then simulated. Stochastic demand for the final product was generated by two commonly occurring processes and with different variances. Various lot sizing rules were then used to determine the amount of product made and the amount of materials bought in. The results confirm earlier research that the behaviour of lot sizing rules is quite different when there is uncertainty in demand compared to the situation of perfect foresight of demand. The best lot sizing rules for the deterministic situation are the worst whenever there is uncertainty in demand. In addition the choice of lot sizing rule between ‘good’ rules such as the EOQ turns out to be relatively less important in reducing unit cost compared to improving forecasting accuracy whatever the cost structure. The effect of demand uncertainty on unit cost for a given service level increases exponentially as the uncertainty in the demand data increases. The paper also shows how the value of improved forecasting can be analysed by examining the effects of different sizes of forecast error in addition to demand uncertainty. In those manufacturing problems with high forecast error variance, improved forecast accuracy should lead to substantial percentage improvements in unit costs

Finding reliable solutions:Event-driven probabilistic constraint programming

Real-life management decisions are usually made in uncertain environments, and decision support systems that ignore this uncertainty are unlikely to provide realistic guidance. We show that previous approaches fail to provide appropriate support for reasoning about reliability under uncertainty. We propose a new framework that addresses this issue by allowing logical dependencies between constraints. Reliability is then defined in terms of key constraints called "events", which are related to other constraints via these dependencies. We illustrate our approach on three problems, contrast it with existing frameworks, and discuss future developments

The population biology and evolutionary significance of Ty elements in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

The basic structure and properties of Ty elements are considered with special reference to their role as agents of evolutionary change. Ty elements may generate genetic variation for fitness by their action as mutagens, as well as by providing regions of portable homology for recombination. The mutational spectra generated by Ty 1 transposition events may, due to their target specificity and gene regulatory capabilities, possess a higher frequency of adaptively favorable mutations than spectra resulting from other types of mutational processes. Laboratory strains contain between 25–35 elements, and in both these and industrial strains the insertions appear quite stable. In contrast, a wide variation in Ty number is seen in wild isolates, with a lower average number/genome. Factors which may determine Ty copy number in populations include transposition rates (dependent on Ty copy number and mating type), and stabilization of Ty elements in the genome as well as selection for and against Ty insertions in the genome. Although the average effect of Ty transpositions are deleterious, populations initiated with a single clone containing a single Ty element steadily accumulated Ty elements over 1,000 generations. Direct evidence that Ty transposition events can be selectively favored is provided by experiments in which populations containing large amounts of variability for Ty1 copy number were maintained for ∼100 generations in a homogeneous environment. At their termination, the frequency of clones containing 0 Ty elements had decreased to ∼0.0, and the populations had became dominated by a small number of clones containing >0 Ty elements. No such reduction in variability was observed in populations maintained in a structured environment, though changes in Ty number were observed. The implications of genetic (mating type and ploidy) changes and environmental fluctuations for the long-term persistence of Ty elements within the S. cerevisiae species group are discussed.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/42799/1/10709_2004_Article_BF00133718.pd

Retrotransposons and the evolution of mammalian gene expression

Transposable elements, and retroviral-like elements in particular, are a rich potential source of genetic variation within a host's genome. Many mutations of endogenous genes in phylogenetically diverse organisms are due to insertion of elements that affect gene expression by altering the normal pattern of regulation. While few such associations are known to have been maintained over time, two recently elucidated examples suggest transposable elements may have a significant impact in evolution of gene expression. The first example, concerning the mouse sex-limited protein ( Slp ), clearly establishes that ancient retroviral enhancer sequences now confer hormonal dependence on the adjacent gene. The second example shows that within the human amylase gene family, salivary specific expression has arisen due to inserted sequences, deriving perhaps from a conjunction of two retrotransposable elements.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/42800/1/10709_2004_Article_BF00133720.pd

Modelling a multi-objective allocation problem in a government sponsored entrepreneur development programme

Typically the vendor allocation problem for a commercial company requires the buyer to allocate business between the selected vendor suppliers to meet its needs at minimum cost, taking account of its quality and delivery performance requirements. However in a government sponsored entrepreneur development programme, the allocation of business cannot only be made dependent on criteria that reflect the current ability of the vendor nor solely on criteria fulfilling the current needs of the buyer. It must also consider how it may aid the vendors to improve their business performance in the future and also on how it affects the development of that indigenous industry sector. Furthermore, conditions change from one year to the next so the problem is dynamic over time. This paper describes how a combination of Goal Programming model (GP) with pre-emptive priority ranking of goal constraints with a linear programming model facilitates allocation of businesses to entrepreneurs. In particular, the subject used in this paper is a Malaysia Government sponsored entrepreneur development programme for furniture maker, which administered by a commercial company. An innovative aspect of the work is the use of GP as a modelling rather than a solution technique. It is used to convert the conflicting multi-objectives that were expressed only in general policy terms to operational terms on which business could be allocated. The paper shows how it can be used to try to understand, and then formally model how managers use their judgement and experience in a complex multi-criteria situation. The paper goes on to show that using the formal model leads to more consistency in decision-making and an improvement in the achievement of the objectives. This is important as several different managers are having to make independent decisions on subsets of the vendors