Surrogate and reduced-order modeling: a comparison of approaches for large-scale statistical inverse problems [Chapter 7]

Solution of statistical inverse problems via the frequentist or Bayesian approaches described in earlier chapters can be a computationally intensive endeavor, particularly when faced with large-scale forward models characteristic of many engineering and science applications. High computational cost arises in several ways. First, thousands or millions of forward simulations may be required to evaluate estimators of interest or to characterize a posterior distribution. In the large-scale setting, performing so many forward simulations is often computationally intractable. Second, sampling may be complicated by the large dimensionality of the input space--as when the inputs are fields represented with spatial discretizations of high dimension--and by nonlinear forward dynamics that lead to multimodal, skewed, and/or strongly correlated posteriors. In this chapter, we present an overview of surrogate and reduced order modeling methods that address these computational challenges. For illustration, we consider a Bayesian formulation of the inverse problem. Though some of the methods we review exploit prior information, they largely focus on simplifying or accelerating evaluations of a stochastic model for the data, and thus are also applicable in a frequentist context.Sandia National Laboratories (Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program)United States. Dept. of Energy (Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000)Singapore-MIT Alliance Computational Engineering ProgrammeUnited States. Dept. of Energy (Award Number DE-FG02-08ER25858 )United States. Dept. of Energy (Award Number DESC00025217

Amplifying the Collective Intelligence of Teams with Swarm AI

Group decision-making is strengthened by the varied knowledge and perspectives that each member brings, yet teams often fail to capitalize on their diversity. This paper describes how Swarm AI, a novel collaborative intelligence technology modeled on the decision-making process of honey bee swarms, enables networked human groups to more effectively leverage their combined insights. Through an empirical study conducted on 60 small teams, each of 3 to 6 members, we demonstrate the capacity of Swarm AI to significantly amplify the collective intelligence of human groups. A well-known testing instrument—the Reading the Mind in the Eyes (RME) test —was used to measure the social intelligence of each team—a key indicator of collective intelligence. The study compares the RME performance of (i) individuals, (ii) teams working by majority vote, and (iii) teams using an interactive software platform that employs Swarm AI technology

Evaluation and pharmacovigilance of projects promoting cultivation and local use of Artemisia annua for malaria

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Several non-governmental organisations (NGOs) are promoting the use of <it>Artemisia annua </it>teas as a home-based treatment for malaria in situations where conventional treatments are not available. There has been controversy about the effectiveness and safety of this approach, but no pharmacovigilance studies or evaluations have been published to date.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>A questionnaire about the cultivation of <it>A. annua</it>, treatment of patients, and side-effects observed, was sent to partners of the NGO Anamed in Kenya and Uganda. Some of the respondents were then selected purposively for more in-depth semi-structured interviews.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Eighteen partners in Kenya and 21 in Uganda responded. 49% reported difficulties in growing the plant, mainly due to drought. Overall about 3,000 cases of presumed malaria had been treated with <it>A. annua </it>teas in the previous year, of which about 250 were in children and 54 were in women in the first trimester of pregnancy. The commonest problem observed in children was poor compliance due to the bitter taste, which was improved by the addition of sugar or honey. Two miscarriages were reported in pregnant patients. Only four respondents reported side-effects in other patients, the commonest of which was vomiting. 51% of respondents had started using <it>A. annua </it>tea to treat illnesses other than malaria.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Local cultivation and preparation of <it>A. annua </it>are feasible where growing conditions are appropriate. Few adverse events were reported even in children and pregnant women. Where ACT is in short supply, it would make sense to save it for young children, while using <it>A. annua </it>infusions to treat older patients who are at lower risk. An ongoing pharmacovigilance system is needed to facilitate reporting of any adverse events.</p

Do ethnobotanical and laboratory data predict clinical safety and efficacy of anti-malarial plants?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Over 1200 plant species are reported in ethnobotanical studies for the treatment of malaria and fevers, so it is important to prioritize plants for further development of anti-malarials.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The “RITAM score” was designed to combine information from systematic literature searches of published ethnobotanical studies and laboratory pharmacological studies of efficacy and safety, in order to prioritize plants for further research. It was evaluated by correlating it with the results of clinical trials.</p> <p>Results and discussion</p> <p>The laboratory efficacy score correlated with clinical parasite clearance (r_s=0.7). The ethnobotanical component correlated weakly with clinical symptom clearance but not with parasite clearance. The safety component was difficult to validate as all plants entering clinical trials were generally considered safe, so there was no clinical data on toxic plants.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The RITAM score (especially the efficacy and safety components) can be used as part of the selection process for prioritising plants for further research as anti-malarial drug candidates. The validation in this study was limited by the very small number of available clinical studies, and the heterogeneity of patients included.</p

Genetic Studies of Sulfadiazine-resistant and Methionine-requiring \u3cem\u3eNeisseria\u3c/em\u3e Isolated From Clinical Material

Deoxyribonucleate (DNA) preparations were extracted from Neisseria meningitidis (four isolates from spinal fluid and blood) and N. gonorrhoeae strains, all of which were resistant to sulfadiazine upon primary isolation. These DNA preparations, together with others from in vitro mutants of N. meningitidis and N. perflava, were examined in transformation tests by using as recipient a drug-susceptible strain of N. meningitidis (Ne 15 Sul-s Met+) which was able to grow in a methionine-free defined medium. The sulfadiazine resistance typical of each donor was introduced into the uniform constitution of this recipient. Production of p-aminobenzoic acid was not significantly altered thereby. Transformants elicited by DNA from the N. meningitidis clinical isolates were resistant to at least 200 μg of sulfadiazine/ml, and did not show a requirement for methionine (Sul-r Met+). DNA from six strains of N. gonorrhoeae, which were isolated during the period of therapeutic use of sulfonamides, conveyed lower degrees of resistance and, invariably, a concurrent methionine requirement (Sul-r/Met−). The requirement of these transformants, and that of in vitro mutants selected on sulfadiazine-agar, was satisfied by methionine, but not by vitamin B12, homocysteine, cystathionine, homoserine, or cysteine. Sul-r Met+ and Sul-r/Met− loci could coexist in the same genome, but were segregated during transformation. On the other hand, the dual Sul-r/Met− properties were not separated by recombination, but were eliminated together. DNA from various Sul-r/Met− clones tested against recipients having nonidentical Sul-r/Met− mutant sites yielded Sul-s Met+ transformants. The met locus involved is genetically complex, and will be a valuable tool for studies of genetic fine structure of members of Neisseria, and of genetic homology between species

Radical Reactivity of Frustrated Lewis Pairs with Diaryl Esters

Advances in the chemistry of metal-free systems known as frustrated Lewis pairs (FLPs) has exposed new reactivity of the p-block elements, particularly in small-molecule activation and catalysis. Typically, the mode of activation by FLPs has been predicated on a heterolytic two-electron process, although recently, select FLPs have been shown to participate in single-electron processes. Here, we report the reaction of diaryl substituted esters with FLPs. This results in divergent pathways, one whereby the diaryl moiety is stabilized by the Lewis basic phosphine, and the alternative pathway, wherein a single-electron transfer process occurs, generating the [Mes_{3}P]+⋅/[C(H)Ar_{2}]⋅ radical ion pair. The latter species undergoes a homocoupling reaction to yield tetraphenylethane derivatives. In the presence of olefins, this reactivity can be harnessed through an sp^{2}-sp^{3} C–C heterocoupling reaction to generate α,β-substituted olefins. Notably, this work showcases an FLP approach to metal-free radical C–H bond activation with subsequent C–C bond formation, which also displays complementary reactivity to other approaches

Local radio to promote mental health awareness: a public health initiative.

BACKGROUND: Public health strategies have focused largely on physical health. However, there is increasing recognition that raising mental health awareness and tackling stigma is crucial to reduce disease burden. National campaigns have had some success but tackling issues locally is particularly important. AIMS: To assess the public's awareness and perception of the monthly BBC Cornwall mental health phone-in programmes that have run for 8.5 years in Cornwall, UK (population 530 000). METHOD: A consultation, review and feedback process involving a multiagency forum of mental and public health professionals, people with lived experience and local National Health Service trust's media team was used to develop a brief questionnaire. This was offered to all attendees at two local pharmacies covering populations of 27 000 over a 2-week period. RESULTS: In total, 14% (95% CI 11.9-16.5) were aware of the radio show, 11% (95% CI 9.0-13.1) have listened and the majority (76%) of those who listened did so more than once. The estimated reach is 70 000 people in the local population, of whom approximately 60 000 listen regularly. The show is highly valued among respondents with modal and median scores of 4 out of 5. CONCLUSIONS: Local radio is a successful, cost-effective and impactful way to reach a significant proportion of the population and likely to raise awareness, reduce stigma and be well received. The format has been adopted in other regions thus demonstrating easy transferability. It could form an essential part of a public health strategy to improve a population's mental well-being. DECLARATION OF INTEREST: W.H. received support from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) for the South West Peninsula UK. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. L.R. and D.S. were involved in delivering the programmes but had no role in their evaluation

Pre-agricultural plant management in the uplands of the central Zagros: the archaeobotanical evidence from Sheikh-e Abad

Prior to the emergence of agriculture in southwest Asia, sedentarising human communities were experimenting with a diverse range of wild plant species over a prolonged period. In some cases, this involved the cultivation of species that would go on to be domesticated and form the foundation of future agricultural economies. However, many forms of plant use did not follow this trajectory, and in multiple places farming was only taken up later as an established ‘package’. In this paper, we present new archaeobotanical evidence from the Early Neolithic site of Sheikh-e Abad in the central Zagros of western Iran. Sheikh-e Abad is unique in being the only settlement known to date within southwest Asia that lies at an altitude above 1000m and which has occupation spanning the agricultural transition. Thus, it provides a rare opportunity to examine pre-agricultural plant management strategies in an upland zone. Our analyses of the plant remains from Sheikh-e Abad suggest that from its earliest occupation inhabitants were unconsciously ‘auditioning’ a suite of locally available wild grasses which ultimately were never domesticated. We discuss the possible reasons for this from a socio-ecological perspective, considering both the biology and ecology of the plant species in question, as well as the ways in which they were potentially managed

Design and synthesis of short amphiphilic cationic peptidomimetics based on biphenyl backbone as antibacterial agents

© 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS Antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) and their synthetic mimics have received recent interest as new alternatives to traditional antibiotics in attempts to overcome the rise of antibiotic resistance in many microbes. AMPs are part of the natural defenses of most living organisms and they also have a unique mechanism of action against bacteria. Herein, a new series of short amphiphilic cationic peptidomimetics were synthesized by incorporating the 3′-amino-[1,1′-biphenyl]-3-carboxylic acid backbone to mimic the essential properties of natural AMPs. By altering hydrophobicity and charge, we identified the most potent analogue 25g that was active against both Gram-positive Staphylococcus aureus (MIC = 15.6 μM) and Gram-negative Escherichia coli (MIC = 7.8 μM) bacteria. Cytoplasmic permeability assay results revealed that 25g acts primarily by depolarization of lipids in cytoplasmic membranes. The active compounds were also investigated for their cytotoxicity to human cells, lysis of lipid bilayers using tethered bilayer lipid membranes (tBLMs) and their activity against established biofilms of S. aureus and E. coli