Dynamic identification of the Qutb Minar, New Delhi, India

Eu-India Economic Cross Cultural Programme “Improving the Seismic Resistance of Cultural Heritage Buildings” - Contract ALA-95-23-2003-077-122.Central Building Research Institute, Roorkee, India.Technical University of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain.Archaeological Survey of India

Focused Bayesian Prediction

We propose a new method for conducting Bayesian prediction that delivers accurate predictions without correctly specifying the unknown true data generating process. A prior is defined over a class of plausible predictive models. After observing data, we update the prior to a posterior over these models, via a criterion that captures a user-specified measure of predictive accuracy. Under regularity, this update yields posterior concentration onto the element of the predictive class that maximizes the expectation of the accuracy measure. In a series of simulation experiments and empirical examples we find notable gains in predictive accuracy relative to conventional likelihood-based prediction

Investigations techniques carried out on the Qutb Minar, New Delhi, India

In the framework of the Eu-India Economic Cross Cultural Programme “Improving the Seismic Resistance of Cultural Heritage Buildings”, aimed at the preservation of ancient masonry structures with regard to the seismic risk, different NDT were applied to the Qutb Minar, New Delhi, India, in September 2005. The paper describes the different investigation techniques applied (Ambient Vibration and Pulse Sonic Velocity Tests), intended to define the dynamic response of the tower and to qualitatively define the masonry conditions. For the dynamic modal identification analysis different test equipments were used, in order to compare the data and to have more reliable results. The dynamic parameters resulted from the acquisition campaigns will be used to estimate the mechanical properties of the masonry walls and the boundary conditions of the structure, to be considered in successive seismic nonlinear analyses of the Qutb Minar, aimed at the assessment of the safety level of the construction

Evaluation of early administration of simvastatin in the prevention and treatment of delirium in critically ill patients undergoing mechanical ventilation (MoDUS): : a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of the following article: Valerie J. Page, et al, ‘Evaluation of early administration of simvastatin in the prevention and treatment of delirium in critically ill patients undergoing mechanical ventilation (MoDUS): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial’, The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, Vol. 5 (9): 727-737, September 2017. Under embargo until 19 July 2018. The final, definitive version is available online at doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-2600(17)30234-5.Summary Background Delirium in critically ill patients is associated with poor clinical outcomes. Neuroinflammation might be an important mechanism in the pathogenesis of delirium, and since simvastatin has anti-inflammatory properties it might reduce delirium. We aimed to establish whether early treatment with simvastatin would decrease the time that survivors of critical illness spent in delirium or coma. Methods We undertook this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in a general adult intensive care unit (ICU) in Watford General Hospital (Watford, UK). We enrolled critically ill patients (≥18 years) needing mechanical ventilation within 72 h of admission. We randomly assigned patients (1:1 ratio) to receive either simvastatin 80 mg or placebo daily for up to a maximum of 28 days, irrespective of coma or delirium status. We assessed delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU (CAM-ICU). The primary outcome was number of days alive and was assessed as delirium-free and coma-free in the first 14 days after being randomly allocated to receive treatment or placebo. ICU clinical and research staff and patients were masked to treatment. We did intention-to-treat analyses with no extrapolation. This trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Registry, number ISRCTN89079989. Findings Between Feb 1, 2013, and July 29, 2016, 142 patients were randomly assigned to receive simvastatin (n=71) or placebo (n=71), and were included in the final analysis. The mean number of days alive without delirium and without coma at day 14 did not differ significantly between the two groups (5·7 days [SD 5·1] with simvastatin and 6·1 days [5·2] with placebo; mean difference 0·4 days, 95% CI −1·3 to 2·1; p=0·66). The most common adverse event was an elevated creatine kinase concentration to more than ten times the upper limit of normal (eight [11%] in the simvastatin group vs three [4%] in the placebo group p=0·208). No patient had a serious adverse event related to the study drug. Interpretation These results do not support the hypothesis that simvastatin modifies duration of delirium and coma in critically ill patients. Funding National Institute for Health Research.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio