Bayesian causal relation effect in quantiles regression models

Analysis of causal relationships held an important part of the theoretical and empirical contribution in quantitative economic theory. This research explored the performance of Bayesian quantile regression with Granger causality showing that Bayesian inference can be undertaken in the context of quantiles regression. Causality Bayesian inferences in the context of quantile regression were achieved by applying the framework of the generalized linear model using asymmetric Laplace distribution for the error term. The developed scheme allows assessing the impact of the explanatory variables on all quantiles range of the conditional distribution of GDP growth. In Practical usage of macroeconomics variables, the scheme can be used to estimate parameters with causality effect which is synonyms to time series data. This research contributed to the versatile application of quantile regression in the contest of statistical research, the study estimated the regression quantiles parameter estimate applying Bayesian procedures. Furthermore, compared to frequentist estimates, Bayesian estimates established the superiority of the Bayesian regression method to the frequentist approach

(R1523) Abundant Natural Resources, Ethnic Diversity and Inclusive Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Approach

The sub-Saharan African region is blessed with abundant natural resources and diverse ethnic groups, yet the region is dominated by the largest number of poor people worldwide due to inequitable distribution of national income. Existing statistics forecast decay in the quality of lives over the years compared to the continent of Asia that shares similar history with the region. In this paper, a-five dimensional first-order nonlinear ordinary differential equations was formulated to give insight into various factors that shaped dynamics of inclusive growth in sub-Saharan Africa. The validity test was performed based on ample mathematical theorems and the model was found to be valid. The model was then studied qualitatively and quantitatively via stability theory of nonlinear differential equations which depended on the policy success ratio and classical fourth-order Runge-Kutta scheme implemented in maple respectively. The results from the analysis showed that inclusive growth from abundant natural resources and ethnic diversity in sub-Saharan Africa was a function of policy reform whereby an increase in both equitable distribution of national income and accessibility of common man to the goods and services provided by the state to narrow inequality gap was accompanied with a low level of nepotism

Semi analytic method for solving infectious disease model

In this paper, we present a deterministic model that captures the essential dynamics of infectious diseases. Differential Transform Method (DTM) is applied to attempt the series solution of the model. The efficiency of the DTM in solving the model is confirmed by classical fourth-order Runge-Kutta method implemented in Maple 18. The comparisons between the DTM and Runge-Kutta (RK4) solutions were made and there exists positive correlation between the results obtained by the two methods. The outcome of comparison between the DTM and RK4 validates the potential of the DTM in coping with the analysis of modern epidemics

Re-calculating the cost of coccidiosis in chickens

Coccidiosis, caused by Eimeria species parasites, has long been recognised as an economically significant disease of chickens. As the global chicken population continues to grow, and its contribution to food security intensifies, it is increasingly important to assess the impact of diseases that compromise chicken productivity and welfare. In 1999, Williams published one of the most comprehensive estimates for the cost of coccidiosis in chickens, featuring a compartmentalised model for the costs of prophylaxis, treatment and losses, indicating a total cost in excess of £38 million in the United Kingdom (UK) in 1995. In the 25 years since this analysis the global chicken population has doubled and systems of chicken meat and egg production have advanced through improved nutrition, husbandry and selective breeding of chickens, and wider use of anticoccidial vaccines. Using data from industry representatives including veterinarians, farmers, production and health experts, we have updated the Williams model and estimate that coccidiosis in chickens cost the UK £99.2 million in 2016 (range £73.0–£125.5 million). Applying the model to data from Brazil, Egypt, Guatemala, India, New Zealand, Nigeria and the United States resulted in estimates that, when extrapolated by geographical region, indicate a global cost of ~ £10.4 billion at 2016 prices (£7.7–£13.0 billion), equivalent to £0.16/chicken produced. Understanding the economic costs of livestock diseases can be advantageous, providing baselines to evaluate the impact of different husbandry systems and interventions. The updated cost of coccidiosis in chickens will inform debates on the value of chemoprophylaxis and development of novel anticoccidial vaccines

Optimum Tilt and Azimuth Angles for Solar Photovoltaic Systems in South- West Nigeria

The performance of a photovoltaic (PV) solar module is affected by its orientation and angle of tilt with respect to the horizontal plane. Solar PV systems are among the most important renewable energy sources that can satisfy the world's energy requirements. In this study, the effect of tilt and azimuth angles on PV systems performance in the South-West region of Nigeria was investigated. The methodology include the use of simple basic components such as a 40W mono-crystalline PV panel, a locally-fabricated flexible panel carrier, thermometer, multi-meters and cables to obtain readings for different slopes and orientation angles of the solar panel. The investigations involved tilting the module at different slope angles of 0°, 5°, 7°, 15°, 20°, 25°, 30°, 35°, 40°, 45°, 55°, 70° and 90°; while oriented in eight geographical directions of North, South, East, West, North-East, North-West, South- East and South-West. Analysis of the results show that the optimum energy yield for a solar PV installation in this region is obtained when the solar panels are oriented southward and sloped at an angle of 20°. Details of the experimental processes and result analysis are presented in this paper

Antibiotic resistance and mitigation using One Health lens in aquaculture of Northern Nigeria

A cross-sectional study was conducted to assess antibiotic usage, residues, resistance and drivers of their emergence in fish aquaculture in Northern Nigeria between 2019 and 2020. A structured questionnaire was administered to 151 randomly selected farmers. Fish, column and wastewater samples were analysed with enzyme link immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for residue detection and quantification. We performed descriptive and analytic statistical analyses. All selected farmers participated, 78.1% used antibiotics in ponds. Majority (77.1%) of the farmers did not know what antibiotic misuse entailed and 73.3% mentioned that antibiotic misuse and overuse cannot predispose to residues and resistance. The most frequently used antibiotics were tetracyclines (TCs) (99.2%). Significant risk routes for residue and resistance spread were: contaminated fish and its products ingestion, direct contact with fish and fomites contaminated as well as water and aerosols contaminated in the pond environment. Significant social and cultural that influenced residue and resistance development include antibiotics misuse/overuse (Odds Ratio [OR] = 3.8; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.62–8.74) as well as poor education and expertise of the farmers (OR = 2.9; 95% CI: 1.24–6.94). The mean TCs residues level in column and wastewater was 123.6 ± 18.2 μg/kg−1. Poor knowledge and attitudes regarding antibiotic usage were identified. Adequate antibiotic stewardship should be promoted through farmers’ education. Identified social and cultural factors can be mitigated through the ‘One Health’ approach

Nasal carriage of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus among medical students of a private institution in Ilishan-Remo, Ogun State, Nigeria

Background: Nasal carriage of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a major factor for its transmission especially from the health workers and medical students to their patients. There are a number of published data on the prevalence of MRSA among health workers but data on nasal colonization of medical students by MRSA are sparse in Nigeria. The objectives of this study are to determine the prevalence of nasal carriage of MRSA among medical students of the Ben Carson School of Medicine, Babcock University, Ilishan-Remo, Ogun State, Nigeria, and identify risk factors associated with this nasal carriage. Methodology: A case control study involving 100 clinical (study group) and 100 pre- clinical (control group) medical students was undertaken between March 2018 and October 2019. Structured questionnaire was administered to obtain socio-demographic information and potential risk factors. Nasal swab was collected from each student and cultured for isolation of S. aureus by standard microbiology techniques. Phenotypic MRSA was detected by the cefoxitin 30μg disk diffusion method according to the guideline of Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute. The mecA gene was detected by conventional polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay. Results: The prevalence of S. aureus nasal carriage among the study group was 14% (14/100) while the prevalence among the control group was 6% (6/100) (p=0.097). The prevalence of phenotypic MRSA among the study group was 4% (4/100) and 1% (1/100) among the control group (p=0.3687) while mecA gene was detected in 3 of the 4 (75%) phenotypic MRSA positive study participants and in the only (100%) phenotypic MRSA positive (1%) control group. Antibiotics usage without prescription, antibiotic treatment of common cold, and use of antibiotics in the previous one year, were significantly associated with MRSA carriage among the study group. Conclusion: Although the prevalence of nasal carriage of S. aureus and MRSA among clinical and pre-clinical medical students was not statistically significant, the risk factors identified with carriage of MRSA among the study group indicates the need for antimicrobial stewardship program to reduce carriage and transmission of MRSA by medical students. Keywords: methicillin resistant, Staphylococcus aureus, mecA gene, nasal carriage, medical student

Time-series analysis of ruminant foetal wastage at a slaughterhouse in North Central Nigeria between 2001 and 2012

In developing countries, foetal wastage from slaughtered ruminants and the associated economic losses appear to be substantial. However, only a limited number of studies have comprehensively evaluated these trends. In the current study, secondary (retrospective) and primary data were collected and evaluated to estimate the prevalence of foetal wastage from cattle, sheep and goats slaughtered at an abattoir in Minna, Nigeria, over a 12-year period (January 2001 – December 2012). Time-series modelling revealed substantial differences in the rate of foetal wastage amongst the slaughtered species, with more lambs having been wasted than calves or kids. Seasonal effects seem to influence rates of foetal wastage and certain months in the year appear to be associated with higher odds of foetal wastage. Improved management systems are suggested to reduce the risk of foetal losses.http://www.ojvr.org/index.php/ojvrhb201

A high performance liquid chromatographic assay of Mefloquine in saliva after a single oral dose in healthy adult Africans

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mefloquine-artesunate is a formulation of artemisinin based combination therapy (ACT) recommended by the World Health Organization and historically the first ACT used clinically. The use of ACT demands constant monitoring of therapeutic efficacies and drug levels, in order to ensure that optimum drug exposure is achieved and detect reduced susceptibility to these drugs. Quantification of anti-malarial drugs in biological fluids other than blood would provide a more readily applicable method of therapeutic drug monitoring in developing endemic countries. Efforts in this study were devoted to the development of a simple, field applicable, non-invasive method for assay of mefloquine in saliva.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A high performance liquid chromatographic method with UV detection at 220 nm for assaying mefloquine in saliva was developed and validated by comparing mefloquine concentrations in saliva and plasma samples from four healthy volunteers who received single oral dose of mefloquine. Verapamil was used as internal standard. Chromatographic separation was achieved using a Hypersil ODS column.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Extraction recoveries of mefloquine in plasma or saliva were 76-86% or 83-93% respectively. Limit of quantification of mefloquine was 20 ng/ml. Agreement between salivary and plasma mefloquine concentrations was satisfactory (r = 0.88, <it>p </it>< 0.001). Saliva:plasma concentrations ratio was 0.42.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Disposition of mefloquine in saliva paralleled that in plasma, making salivary quantification of mefloquine potentially useful in therapeutic drug monitoring.</p