Bootstrapping the economy -- a non-parametric method of generating consistent future scenarios

The fortune and the risk of a business venture depends on the future course of the economy. There is a strong demand for economic forecasts and scenarios that can be applied to planning and modeling. While there is an ongoing debate on modeling economic scenarios, the bootstrapping (or resampling) approach presented here has several advantages. As a non-parametric method, it directly relies on past market behaviors rather than debatable assumptions on models and parameters. Simultaneous dependencies between economic variables are automatically captured. Some aspects of the bootstrapping method require additional modeling: choice and ransformation of the economic variables, arbitrage-free consistency, heavy tails of distributions, serial dependence, trends and mean reversion. Results of a complete economic scenario generator are presented, tested and discussed.economic scenario generator (ESG); asset-liability management (ALM); bootstrapping; resampling; simulation; Monte-Carlo simulation; non-parametric model; yield curve model

Google Searches as a Means of Improving the Nowcasts of Key Macroeconomic Variables

The Google Insights data are a collection of recorded Internet searches for a huge number of the keywords, which are available since January 2004. These searches represent a kind of revealed perceptions of Internet users, which are a (possibly not entirely representative) sample of the general public. These data can be used to improve the short-term forecasts or nowcasts of various macroeconomic variables. In this paper, we compare the nowcasts of the growth rates of the real US private consumption based on both the conventional consumer confidence indicators and the Google indicators. The latter are extracted from the Google searches using the principal component analysis. It is shown that the Google indicators are especially successful at predicting private consumption in times of economic trouble, for they are 20% more accurate than the best alternative during the 2008m1-2009m5 forecast period. In addition, Google indicators are available at weekly frequency and not subject to revisions. This makes them an excellent source of information for the macroeconomic forecasting.Google indicators, forecasting, principal components, US private consumption

Role of support in lean DeNO x catalysis

FTIR and pulse thermal analysis were applied to investigate catalysts containing Pt (1 wt%)/Ba (17 wt%) supported on γ−Al2O3, SiO2 and ZrO2. The aim was to learn how the support material affects the thermal stability of barium carbonate and its activity in the reaction to bulk Ba(NO3)2. The lower thermal stability of BaCO3 in alumina supported samples was found to influence the formation of barium nitrate during the NO x storage process. Quantification of Ba(NO3)2 formed during NO x storage indicated that for alumina supported catalysts only ca. 30% of barium present in the sample is involved in the storage process. The low thermal stability found for alumina supported barium nitrite excludes its role in the formation of barium nitrate during interaction of NO x with the catalyst at 300°C. The studies indicate that γ-Al2O3 plays a major role in influencing the thermal stability of BaCO3 and Ba(NO3)2. This finding seems to be relevant for the higher activity of γ-Al2O3-supported catalysts in NO x storage reduction reaction

Goitre and Iodine Deficiency in Europe

The prevalence of endemic iodine-deficiency goitre in Europe has been reduced in many areas by the introduction of iodination programmes. Recent reports, however, show that goitre remains a significant problem and that its prevalence has not decreased in a number of European countries. Hetzel1 has pointed out that the high global prevalence of iodine-deficiency disorders could be eradicated within 5-10 years by introduction of an iodised salt programme. The current World Health Organisation recommendations for iodine intake are between 150 and 300 μg/da

CMG2/ANTXR2 regulates extracellular collagen VI which accumulates in hyaline fibromatosis syndrome.

Loss-of-function mutations in capillary morphogenesis gene 2 (CMG2/ANTXR2), a transmembrane surface protein, cause hyaline fibromatosis syndrome (HFS), a severe genetic disorder that is characterized by large subcutaneous nodules, gingival hypertrophy and severe painful joint contracture. Here we show that CMG2 is an important regulator of collagen VI homoeostasis. CMG2 loss of function promotes accumulation of collagen VI in patients, leading in particular to nodule formation. Similarly, collagen VI accumulates massively in uteri of Antxr2 <sup>-/-</sup> mice, which do not display changes in collagen gene expression, and leads to progressive fibrosis and sterility. Crossing Antxr2 <sup>-/-</sup> with Col6a1 <sup>-/-</sup> mice leads to restoration of uterine structure and reversion of female infertility. We also demonstrate that CMG2 may act as a signalling receptor for collagen VI and mediates its intracellular degradation

Theory of oscillations in the STM conductance resulting from subsurface defects (Review Article)

In this review we present recent theoretical results concerning investigations of single subsurface defects by means of a scanning tunneling microscope (STM). These investigations are based on the effect of quantum interference between the electron partial waves that are directly transmitted through the contact and the partial waves scattered by the defect. In particular, we have shown the possibility imaging the defect position below a metal surface by means of STM. Different types of subsurface defects have been discussed: point-like magnetic and non-magnetic defects, magnetic clusters in a nonmagnetic host metal, and non-magnetic defects in a s-wave superconductor. The effect of Fermi surface anisotropy has been analyzed. Also, results of investigations of the effect of a strong magnetic field to the STM conductance of a tunnel point contact in the presence of a single defect has been presented.Comment: 31 pages, 10 figuers Submitted to Low. Temp. Phy

Distinction of disorder, classical and quantum vibrational contributions to atomic mean-square amplitudes in dielectric pentachloronitrobenzene

The solid-state molecular disorder of pentachloronitrobenzene (PCNB) and its role in causing anomalous dielectric properties are investigated. Normal coordinate analysis (NCA) of atomic mean-square displacement parameters (ADPs) is employed to distinguish disorder contributions from classical and quantum-mechanical vibrational contributions. The analysis relies on multitemperature (5-295 K) single-crystal neutron-diffraction data. Vibrational frequencies extracted from the temperature dependence of the ADPs are in good agreement with THz spectroscopic data. Aspects of the static disorder revealed by this work, primarily tilting and displacement of the molecules, are compared with corresponding results from previous, much more in-depth and time-consuming Monte Carlo simulations; their salient findings are reproduced by this work, demonstrating that the faster NCA approach provides reliable constraints for the interpretation of diffuse scattering. The dielectric properties of PCNB can thus be rationalized by an interpretation of the temperature-dependent ADPs in terms of thermal motion and molecular disorder. The use of atomic displacement parameters in the NCA approach is nonetheless hostage to reliable neutron data. The success of this study demonstrates that state-of-the-art single-crystal Laue neutron diffraction affords sufficiently fast the accurate data for this type of study. In general terms, the validation of this work opens up the field for numerous studies of solid-state molecular disorder in organic materials.Comment: Now published in Physical Review