Методика прогноза дождевых паводков в бассейне Верхнего Амура (на примере р. Онон)

Актуальность работы. Бассейн Амура относится к паводкоопасному региону. Дождевые наводнения в бассейне верхнего Амура, носящие катастрофический характер, наблюдались за последнее столетие 8 раз. Они охватывали одновременно огромные территории, сопровождались человеческими жертвами, разрушением жилых и производственных зданий, инженерных коммуникаций. Эффективным способом борьбы с наводнениями является регулирование речного стока путем создания водохранилищ. Существующих водохранилищ в речной системе Амура не хватает, чтобы эффективно регулировать сток воды. Их строительство предусмотрено в планах дальнейшего освоения региона. Прогнозы притока паводковых вод являются одной из ключевых задач, позволяющих минимизировать ущерб от паводков и определить наиболее рациональный режим эксплуатации существующих и вновь создаваемых водохранилищ. Цель работы: на примере реки Онон исследовать процессы формирования наводнений и разработать методику их краткосрочного прогноза в бассейне верхнего Амура. Методы исследования: методы водного баланса, географо-гидрологические, статистические, математическое моделирование процессов формирования стока. Результаты. Для реализации прогноза ежедневных расходов (уровней) воды дождевых паводков адаптирована концептуальная модель Д.А. Буракова, используемая в сибирских подразделениях Росгидромета. В качестве ландшафтно-гидрологической основы построения модели принято деление бассейна на районы и высотные зоны. Исходной территориальной единицей осреднения гидрометеорологических характеристик в бассейнах горных рек является высотная зона. В пределах высотной зоны территориальная неравномерность распределения запасов снега и емкостного поглощения воды учитывается с помощью распределений вероятности. Отрезки времени, в течение которых суточное поступление воды на поверхность бассейна превышает суточное испарение и просачивание, образуют последовательные паводкообразующие периоды. Для каждых суток паводкообразующего периода рассчитывается водоотдача высотных зон на основе инфильтрационно-емкостной модели Е.Г. Попова, гравитационный запас воды на склонах и приток в русловую сеть. В основу модели расчета добегания притока воды по русловой сети положен интеграл свёртки (генетическая формула паводка). В результате выполненных исследований разработана методика прогноза ежедневных уровней воды в русловой системе р. Онон. Испытания методики в оперативном режиме в Читинском гидрометеорологическом центре показали ее эффективность.Relevance. The Amur basin is situated in a flood-inclined region. Over the course of the past century the disastrous pluvial flooding have occurred in the basin eight times. They covered huge territories, took peopleґs lives and caused considerable damage to residential and industrial buildings, engineering systems. One of the efficient methods to struggle the floods is to regulate the river run-off developing flood-control reservoirs. The number of existing reservoirs on the Amur river system is insignificant to control efficiently the river run-off. Their building is tied with further region development. The forecast of flood water inflow allows minimizing damage and identifying the most rational reservoir release rules for the existing and expected reservoirs. Aim of the research is to investigate the floods formation by the example of the Onon river and to develop the methods for short-term forecast of floods in the upper Amur basin. Research methods: water balance method, geographical and hydrological methods, statistical method, mathematical modeling of run-off formation. Results. The Burakovґs conceptual model is adapted to forecast daily rain floods water flows. This model is used by the Siberian department of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring of Russia. The landscape and hydrological basis for this model is the basin division into areas and altitudinal zones. The altitudinal zone is an initial territorial unit of averaging the hydrological characteristics of mountain rivers. Within the altitudinal zone, territorial irregularity of snow cover distribution and capacitive water absorption are taken into account by probability distribution. The periods, when the diurnal water entry to the surface of the basin exceeds the diurnal evaporation and infiltration, compose successive flood-forming periods. For each day of a flood-forming period, the water yield is estimated using the Popovґs infiltration capacitive model. Besides, the gravitational water storage on the slopes and the inflow in the channel network are calculated. The method, describing water lag along the river channels, is based on applying the convolution integral (the genetic flood formula). As a result of the research, the author has developed the method of forecasting daily water levels in the Onon riverbed system. The method was applied by the Chita department of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring of Russia and proved its efficiency

Электрооборудование агрегата перекачки топлива

Объектом исследования является частотно-регулируемый электропривод переменного тока электронасосного агрегата. Целью выпускной квалификационной работы является проектирование электрооборудования и асинхронного электропривода насосного агрегата. В результате исследования была разработана системы регулирования насосного агрегата и защит. Выпускная квалификационная работа выполнена с помощью программ MATLAB, Mathcad 14, в текстовом редакторе MS Word и представлена на компакт - диске (в конверте на обороте обложки).Probe plant is the frequent-regulated electric drive of alternate current of the electropump aggregate. The purpose of final qualification operation is projection of electric equipment and the asynchronous electric drive of the pumping aggregate. As a result of probe has been developed regulating systems of the pumping aggregate and guards. Final qualification operation is executed by means of programs MATLAB, Mathcad 14, in text editor MS Word and is presented on a compact set - a disk (in an envelope on the back of a cover)

Оценка эмиссии метана автотранспортом мира

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Gastrointestinal Tract As Entry Route for Hantavirus Infection

Background: Hantaviruses are zoonotic agents that cause hemorrhagic fevers and are thought to be transmitted to humans by exposure to aerosolized excreta of infected rodents. Puumala virus (PUUV) is the predominant endemic hantavirus in Europe. A large proportion of PUUV-infected patients suffer from gastrointestinal symptoms of unclear origin. In this study we demonstrate that PUUV infection can occur via the alimentary tract. Methods: We investigated susceptibility of the human small intestinal epithelium for PUUV infection and analyzed the resistance of virions to gastric juice. As model for intestinal virus translocation we performed infection experiments with human intestinal Caco-2 monolayers. In animal experiments we infected Syrian hamsters with PUUV via the intragastric route and tested seroconversion and protective immunity against subsequent Andes virus challenge. Results: PUUV retained infectivity in gastric juice at pH >3. The virus invaded Caco-2 monolayers in association with endosomal antigen EEA1, followed by virus replication and loss of epithelial barrier function with basolateral virus occurrence. Cellular disturbance and depletion of the tight junction protein ZO-1 appeared after prolonged infection, leading to paracellular leakage (leak flux diarrhea). Moreover, animal experiments led to dose-dependent seroconversion and protection against lethal Andes virus challenge. Conclusions: We provide evidence that hantavirus can infect the organism via the alimentary tract and suggest a novel aspect of hantavirus infection and pathogenesis. Significance: Hantaviruses are zoonotic pathogens causing severe hemorrhagic fevers worldwide. They are transmitted to humans by small mammals. To date, these viruses were thought to infect exclusively through the airborne route by inhalation of aerosols from infectious animal droppings or by rodent bites. In our work we could show that the alimentary tract is an alternative path of infection for hantaviruses, meaning a new association of virus and disease. These findings have impact on current textbook knowledge and bring many implications for hantavirus epidemiology and outbreak prevention measures

Gadolinium contrast agents: dermal deposits and potential effects on epidermal small nerve fibers

Small fiber neuropathy (SFN) affects unmyelinated and thinly myelinated nerve fibers causing neuropathic pain with distal distribution and autonomic symptoms. In idiopathic SFN (iSFN), 30% of the cases, the underlying aetiology remains unknown. Gadolinium (Gd)-based contrast agents (GBCA) are widely used in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). However, side-effects including musculoskeletal disorders and burning skin sensations were reported. We investigated if dermal Gd deposits are more prevalent in iSFN patients exposed to GBCAs, and if dermal nerve fiber density and clinical parameters are likewise affected. 28 patients (19 females) with confirmed or no GBCA exposure were recruited in three German neuromuscular centers. ISFN was confirmed by clinical, neurophysiological, laboratory and genetic investigations. Six volunteers (two females) served as controls. Distal leg skin biopsies were obtained according to European recommendations. In these samples Gd was quantified by elemental bioimaging and intraepidermal nerve fibers (IENF) density via immunofluorescence analysis. Pain phenotyping was performed in all patients, quantitative sensory testing (QST) only in a subset (15 patients; 54%). All patients reported neuropathic pain, described as burning (n = 17), jabbing (n = 16) and hot (n = 11) and five QST scores were significantly altered. Compared to an equal distribution significantly more patients reported GBCA exposures (82%), while 18% confirmed no exposures. Compared to unexposed patients/controls significantly increased Gd deposits and lower z-scores of the IENF density were confirmed in exposed patients. QST scores and pain characteristics were not affected. This study suggests that GBCA exposure might alter IENF density in iSFN patients. Our results pave the road for further studies investigating the possible role of GBCA in small fiber damage, but more investigations and larger samples are needed to draw firm conclusions

World Ocean Review 2015 : living with the oceans 3. Marine resources - opportunities and risks

The third issue of the World Ocean Review, WOR 3, is devoted to marine resources – metals and energy – and their utilization. It gives the facts about the extraction of known oil and gas deposits below the ocean floor and examines the impacts upon flora and fauna. It explains how gas hydrates form on continental shelves and what potential they hold. The review further explores in detail the opportunities and risks presented and posed by extracting mineral resources from the seabed: manganese nodules, cobalt crusts and massive sulphides

World Ocean Review 2015 : Mit den Meeren leben 3. Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Die dritte Ausgabe des „World Ocean Review“ widmet sich den metallischen und energetischen Ressourcen des Meeres und ihrer Nutzung. Er liefert Fakten über den Abbau der bekannten Öl- und Gasvorkommen unterhalb des Meeresbodens und beleuchtet die Auswirkungen auf Flora und Fauna. Er erklärt die Entstehung und Potenziale der Gashydratvorkommen an den Kontinentalrändern und liefert detaillierte Informationen über Chancen und Risiken der Nutzung mineralischer Rohstoffe: Manganknollen, Kobaltkrusten und Massivsulfide