Estimation of small probabilities with applications to forensic genetics

When determining kinship relations based on genetic material, there is a need to quantify the probability for doing errors. These probabilities are typically very small, but nonetheless important, and needs to be controlled. It is no trivial task to estimate such small probabilities, and so the main purpose of this thesis has been to explore how they can best and most accurately be estimated. The applications in this thesis has been kinship cases in forensic genetics, but the methods are relevant also for other areas where calculations rely on the values of small probabilities. To estimate these probabilities, the simulation method of importance sampling was used. This method works by sampling from a more beneficiary distribution than the one of original interest, and then correcting for it. The precision of the estimates has also been of interest in this thesis, and is quantified in terms of the variance and MSE. These measures were used to evaluate different possible sampling distributions. The importance sampling method worked better for smaller probabilities than the straightforward simulation, but there are some trade-offs; there seems to be a difference between which distribution gives the best estimates, and which ones manage to make non-zero estimates for the smallest probabilities. As is intuitively understood, using more markers when genotyping makes it easier to correctly determine relationships, but it does however also make it harder to estimate the probabilities involved. In conclusion, we have found that relevant estimates can be found, and that these estimates can be used to add understanding to conventionally used verbal statements when evidence is presented in court. It is possible to accompany such verbal statements, like "extremely strong evidence", to tangible probabilities.Når slektskapsforhold skal bestemmes på grunnlag av genetisk materiale er det et behov for å tallfeste sannsynligheten for å gjøre feil. Disse sannsynlighetene er typisk veldig små, men likevel viktige, og må kontrolleres. Det er ingen triviell oppgave å estimere slike små sannsynligheter, og hensikten i denne avhandlingen har hovedsakelig vært å undersøke hvordan disse kan estimeres på beste og mest presise måte. For å estimere disse sannsynlighetene har simuleringsmetoden importance sampling blitt brukt. Denne metoden virker ved å trekke utvaget fra en mer gunstig fordeling enn den som opprinnelig er av interesse, for så å korrigere for dette. Presisjonen til estimatene har også vært av interesse i denne oppgaven, og har blitt tallfestet gjennom varianse og MSE. Disse målene ble brukt til å evaluere forskjellige alternative fordelinger. Metoden importance sampling virket bedre for mindre sannsynligheter enn direkte simulering, men noen avveininger må gjøress; det ser ut til å være en forskjell mellom hvilken fordeling som gir det beste estimatet, og hvilken som får til å produsere et resultat som ikke er null for de aller minste sannsynlighetene. Som man intuitivt kan forstå så blir det enklere å bestemme slektskap på en korrekt måte når flere markører tas i bruk, men samtidig blir det vanskeligere å estimere de involverte sannsynlighetene. For å konkludere, så har vi funnet at de relevante estimatene kan bestemmes, og at disse estimatene videre kan bli brukt til å øke forståelsen for konvensjonelt brukte verbale uttalelser ved presentasjon av bevis i retten. Det gir en mulighet for at slike verbale uttalelser som "ekstremt sterkt bevis" kan ledsages av håndfaste sannsynligheter.M-BIA

Communicatronics

Design in its nature is a future facing practice. But the future is hard to predict or often even imagine. So how are we as designer to approach these types of problems? In this thesis I attempt a novel design methodology to derive insights and produce new interaction models for long range communication. The methodology, which can be applied to any topic, focuses on a study of the past. More specifically using experimental archeology, the practice of rebuilding historical objects in order to test functionality and viability of a hypothesis. For this project I learned how to send smoke signals and built a working replica of the first telephone. I learned the concepts of Morse code and early visual semaphore languages. Using these as a launching point I created a series of objects which strive to create more expressive messages. These object are tools for learning and exploring the possibilities contemporary communication methods may be overlooking. They are meant to ask questions not provide answers. The objects can be used to consider interactions in a new light to be included in future product whether they be hardware or software. Abstrac

Architecture: a drive of memorial experience .

[EN] Architecture can introduce us to the experience of memory; memory as reflection, and architecture as a drive for the experience of remembering as well as a container of information. Each object is de ned in a process in which different actors, their wills, options and experiences, are taken into account. This is the case of the artworks addressed by the present communication, in which we reveal and ask ourselves about the architectural gesture, the evoked memory and its social interpretation. Artworks that have achieved prominence for different reasons, such as the Hall of Remembrance, of Arieh Elhanani, Arieh Sharon and Benjamin Idelson (1961) in Yad Vashem, Jerusalem; for its scientific and historical significance, such as the Holocaust History Museum, also in Yad Vashem, by Moshe Safdie (2005); for its cultural or architectural relevance, such as the Jewish Museum (Extension of the Berlin Museum with the Department of the Jewish Museum) by Daniel Libeskind in Berlin (1999); and even because of the controversy they have raised, such as the Memorial to the Murdered Jews of Europe, also in Berlin, known as the Holocaust Memorial, by Peter Eisenman (2004).[ES] La arquitectura puede introducirnos en la experiencia de la memoria; memoria como reflexión, y arquitectura como dispositivo para la experiencia memorial a la vez que contenedor de la información. Cada objeto es definido en un proceso en el que considerar diversos actores, sus voluntades, opciones y experiencias. Es el caso de las obras que aborda este trabajo, en las que evidenciar e interrogarnos sobre el gesto arquitectónico, la memoria evocada y su interpretación social. Obras que han alcanzado notoriedad por diferentes motivos: como la Sala del Recuerdo, de Arieh Elhanani, Arieh Sharon y Benjamin Idelson (1961) en Yad Vashem, Jerusalén; por su significado científico e histórico, como el Museo de Historia del Holocausto, también en Yad Vashem, de Moshé Safdie (2005); por su relevancia cultural o arquitectónica, como el Museo Judío (Ampliación del Museo de Berlín con el Departamento del Museo Judío) de Daniel Libeskind en Berlín (1999); e incluso por la controversia que han suscitado, como el Monumento en Memoria de los Judíos Asesinados de Europa, también en Berlín, conocido como el Monumento del Holocausto, de Peter Eisenman (2004).Azulay Tapiero, M. (2018). Arquitectura, dispositivo de experiencia memorial. En CIAB 8. VIII Congreso Internacional de arquitectura blanca. Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. 278-291. https://doi.org/10.4995/CIAB8.2018.7604OCS27829

Método de cálculo estimativo de costes de construcción de rotondas

Se trata de obtener, a partir del estudio de las rotondas construidas por la Generalitat de Catalunya en los últimos ocho años, las variables que influyen significativamente en su coste y correlacionarlas, obteniendo un método que permita encontarr el coste estimativo de la construcción cuando solamente se disponen de los datos habituales a nivel de estudio previo. Aprovechamos la consulta de los proyectos para mostrar una estadística descriptiva de las rotondas catalanas

Radio detection of the young binary HD 160934

Precise determination of dynamical masses of pre-main-sequence (PMS) stars is essential to calibrate stellar evolution models that are widely used to derive theoretical masses of young low-mass objects. Binary stars in young, nearby loose associations are particularly good candidates for this calibration since all members share a common age. Interestingly, some of these young binaries present a persistent and compact radio emission, which makes them excellent targets for astrometric VLBI studies. We aim to monitor the orbital motion of the binary system HD 160934, a member of the AB Doradus moving group. We observed HD 160934 with the Very Large Array and the European VLBI Network at 8.4 and 5 GHz, respectively. The orbital information derived from these observations was analyzed along with previously reported orbital measurements. We show that the two components of the binary, HD 160934 A and HD 160934 c, display compact radio emission at VLBI scales, providing precise information on the relative orbit. Revised orbital elements were estimated. Future VLBI monitoring of this pair should determine precise model-independent mass estimates for the A and c components, which will serve as calibration tests for PMS evolutionary models.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Learning Haptic-based Object Pose Estimation for In-hand Manipulation Control with Underactuated Robotic Hands

Unlike traditional robotic hands, underactuated compliant hands are challenging to model due to inherent uncertainties. Consequently, pose estimation of a grasped object is usually performed based on visual perception. However, visual perception of the hand and object can be limited in occluded or partly-occluded environments. In this paper, we aim to explore the use of haptics, i.e., kinesthetic and tactile sensing, for pose estimation and in-hand manipulation with underactuated hands. Such haptic approach would mitigate occluded environments where line-of-sight is not always available. We put an emphasis on identifying the feature state representation of the system that does not include vision and can be obtained with simple and low-cost hardware. For tactile sensing, therefore, we propose a low-cost and flexible sensor that is mostly 3D printed along with the finger-tip and can provide implicit contact information. Taking a two-finger underactuated hand as a test-case, we analyze the contribution of kinesthetic and tactile features along with various regression models to the accuracy of the predictions. Furthermore, we propose a Model Predictive Control (MPC) approach which utilizes the pose estimation to manipulate objects to desired states solely based on haptics. We have conducted a series of experiments that validate the ability to estimate poses of various objects with different geometry, stiffness and texture, and show manipulation to goals in the workspace with relatively high accuracy