Simulation and hedging oil price with geometric Brownian Motion and single-step binomial price model

This paper[1] uses the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) to model the behaviour of crude oil price in a Monte Carlo simulation framework. The performance of the GBM method is compared with the naïve strategy using different forecast evaluation techniques. The results from the forecasting accuracy statistics suggest that the GBM outperforms the naïve model and can act as a proxy for modelling movement of oil prices. We also test the empirical viability of using a call option contract to hedge oil price declines. The results from the simulations reveal that the single-step binomial price model can be effective in hedging oil price volatility. The findings from this paper will be of interest to the government of Nigeria that views the price of oil as one of the key variables in the national budget. JEL Classification Numbers: E64; C22; Q30 Keywords: Oil price volatility; Geometric Brownian Motion; Monte Carlo Simulation; Single-Step Binomial Price Model [1] Acknowledgement: We wish to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and kind considerations. Memos to: Azeez Abiola Oyedele, School of Business and Enterprise, University of the West of Scotland, Paisley Campus, Paisley PA1 2BE, Scotland, Email: [email protected]

Forecasting OPEC oil price: a comparison of parametric stochastic models

Most academic papers on oil price forecasting have frequently focused on the use of WTI and European Brent oil price series with little focus on other equally important international oil price benchmarks such as the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB). The ORB is a weighted average of 11-member countries crude streams weighted according to production and exports to the main markets. This paper compares the forecasting accuracy of four stochastic processes and four univariate random walk models using daily data of OPEC Reference Basket series. The study finds that the random walk univariate model outperforms the other stochastic processes. An element of uncertainty was introduced into the point estimates by deriving probability distribution that describes the possible price paths on a given day and their likelihood of occurrence. This will help decision makers, traders and analysts to have a better understanding of the possible daily prices that could occur. JEL Classification Numbers: E64; C22; Q30 Keywords: Oil Price Forecasting, Probability Distributions, and Forecast Evaluation Statistics, Brownian Motion with Mean Reversion process, GARCH Model

Biodiesel: Freedom from Dependence on Fossil Fuels?

In view of the depleting oil reserves and exponential rise in petroleum prices, the search for alternative sources of fuel is very timely and important. The present paper addresses the underlying issues in biodiesel production from biomaterials and sustainable production and supply of first-generation biofuels, especially the one from jatropha. The agencies and research institutions involved in the production of biofuels and the national and international efforts made in this regard are discussed here. There is also a dire need of a step towards large-scale production and supply of second-generation biofuels, although in infant stage, to strengthen the world economy in general and Indian economy in particular. However, the production of biofuels are likely to have serious socio-economic implications especially to the lesser developed societies. This needs serious attention from policy makers and public at large

Performance Evaluation of Machine Learning Techniques for Identifying Forged and Phony Uniform Resource Locators (URLs)

Since the invention of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), there has been a great shift from the erstwhile traditional approach of handling information across the globe to the usage of this innovation. The application of this initiative cut across almost all areas of human endeavours. ICT is widely utilized in education and production sectors as well as in various financial institutions. It is of note that many people are using it genuinely to carry out their day to day activities while others are using it to perform nefarious activities at the detriment of other cyber users. According to several reports which are discussed in the introductory part of this work, millions of people have become victims of fake Uniform Resource Locators (URLs) sent to their mails by spammers. Financial institutions are not left out in the monumental loss recorded through this illicit act over the years. It is worth mentioning that, despite several approaches currently in place, none could confidently be confirmed to provide the best and reliable solution. According to several research findings reported in the literature, researchers have demonstrated how machine learning algorithms could be employed to verify and confirm compromised and fake URLs in the cyberspace. Inconsistencies have however been noticed in the researchers’ findings and also their corresponding results are not dependable based on the values obtained and conclusions drawn from them. Against this backdrop, the authors carried out a comparative analysis of three learning algorithms (Naïve Bayes, Decision Tree and Logistics Regression Model) for verification of compromised, suspicious and fake URLs and determine which is the best of all based on the metrics (F-Measure, Precision and Recall) used for evaluation. Based on the confusion metrics measurement, the result obtained shows that the Decision Tree (ID3) algorithm achieves the highest values for recall, precision and f-measure. It unarguably provides efficient and credible means of maximizing the detection of compromised and malicious URLs. Finally, for future work, authors are of the opinion that two or more supervised learning algorithms can be hybridized to form a single effective and more efficient algorithm for fake URLs verification.Keywords: Learning-algorithms, Forged-URL, Phoney-URL, performance-compariso

Multi Factor Explanation to Ipo Long Run Underperformance Anomaly: Sri Lankan Evidence

This paper focuses on IPO long run underperformance anomaly and the application of calendar time techniques to dissect anomalous behavior of IPO stocks. More specifically this paper will provide fresh evidence on how multi factor models work on a specific type of security (IPO stocks in this scenario) in an emerging market like Sri Lanka. It is analyzed IPOs over a period from 2000 to 2012 on Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE). Main finding of the study is that traditional market beta still remains strong despite the employment of latest multi factor models

Bus Rapid Transit and Socioeconomic Condition of Bus Commuters in Lagos State

Road transport is one of the most common means of transportation across the world. Bus transportation in Nigeria had witnessed many problems for the past decades considering the growing population with the attendant loss of lives and properties in most cities like Lagos in Nigeria. This paper focuses on the adequacy of services provided by Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Lagos State with respect to the extent to which it influences the socioeconomic conditions of bus commuters.  It examines the effect of services rendered by BRT on cost reduction potential, income and safety. Multistage sampling technique was used to select 20 samples each from all respondents in all local government area in Lagos State to reach a total of three hundred and thirty (330) samples. The data collection instrument was the questionnaire which was validated. Data collected were analysed with the use of descriptive statistics such as means, percentages and standard deviation and inferential statistics such as regression and analysis of variance techniques. Findings showed that BRT services has reduced the cost of bus commuters and also increased safety and security thereby increasing the socioeconomic condition of Lagosians. The study recommends improvements in BRT services through the deployment of technology as it had been used in developed countries. &nbsp

First report of polymelia and a rudimentary wing in a Nigerian Nera black chicken

A case of polymelia with a rudimentary wing is described in an eight-week-old Nera black chicken (Gallus domesticus). It is a rare disorder with chromosomal aberrations, which are associated with congenital limb malformations. The condition was observed during routine physical examination of a flock of 2000 poultry birds in the month of February 2008 in Ibadan, Nigeria. After physical examination, the bird was found to have two extra well-developed legs, which were shorter than the normal legs. These extra legs were also found to be non-functional. Similarly, a rudimentary wing, which was highly vestigial, was found on the left lateral side of the bird very close to the cloaca. The bird died at the age of eight weeks. This is the first reported case of polymelia with a rudimentary wing in a domestic chicken in Nigeria

A survey of plants used in treatment of hypertension and diabetes mellitus in Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria

Background: Hypertension and Diabetes mellitus have emerged as the leading non-communicable disease worldwide, thus, the increasing need to continuously explore more and better ways of treating these diseases.Objectives: To carry out a survey of plants used in the treatment of hypertension and Diabetes mellitus in Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria.Materials and methods: Interview was conducted among respondents using semi-structured questionnaires and asking open-ended questions. Descriptive statistics were used for data analysis.Result: A total of 30 respondents comprising of 60.0% male and 40.0% female with the highest distribution of age range at above 50 years old (50.0%) was reported. Forty (40) medicinal plant species belonging to thirty-one (31) plant families were cited with the Apocynaceae family having the highest number of medicinal plants, followed by Asteraceae. For hypertension, 32 plant species were reported of which the most cited were Allium sativum (4) and Ficus asperifolia (2) while for Diabetes mellitus, 20 plant species were mentioned, of which the most cited were Hunteria umbellata (10) and Vernonia amygdalina (9). Of particular interest in this study were the plants that appeared for both hypertension and Diabetes treatment.Conclusion: This survey has helped to increase available medicinal plants knowledge and documentation in the management of hypertension and Diabetes. However, further work on the pharmacological activity of these plants as well as formulation in proper dosage form is recommended.Keywords: Hypertension, Diabetes mellitus, Traditional medicine practitioners, Kwara stat

TÉCNICAS INDÍGENAS DE PREVENCIÓN DE LA MORBILIDAD INFANTIL EN EL ÁREA METROPOLITANA DE IBADAN, NIGERIA

The high cost of allopathic medical health care and the expensive pharmaceutical products have underlined the importance of African Traditional Medicine (ATM), the use of which is limited by its oral dissemination tradition. Its documentation as obtainable in other climes will be a great stride at sustainably curbing illnesses in the continent. This depends on collation of original data from the traditional custodians of such knowledge. In Nigeria, communicable diseases, immunisable childhood infections and malnutrition have been submitted as the main sources of child mortality. This paper, therefore, reports the traditional means of curbing infant morbidity by traditional infant healers in Ibadan metropolis, Nigeria. The study was conducted in Bode market, Ibadan; the herbal market headquarters in Nigeria using primary and secondary information sources. Snowball technique was used in the selection of the twenty (20) infant healers (Elewe omo/Aremo) for sampling. The test instrument was a set of open-ended questionnaires divided into three parts. Section A captured information on Respondents’ bio- data, section B focused on other background information while section C probed into plants and parts used in the treatment of infant morbidity as well as dosage and usage of traditional infant healing recipes. Data garnered were analysed using descriptive statistics (frequency, range, mean, percentage and histogram). Eighty-nine local plants, identified with their botanical names and families were documented alongside their medicinal use(s) in the treatment of infant morbidity. Information on some recipes, dosages and application period was also documented with their preparation as well as parts of plant used. Although, there will still be the need for researchers to explore other vital information for scientific validation of the infant healers’ claims, the study lays a sustainable foundation towards documentation of indigenous techniques for infant morbidity prevention in the study area.El alto costo de la atención médica alopática y los costosos productos farmacéuticos han subrayado la importancia de la Medicina Tradicional Africana (ATM), cuyo uso está limitado por su tradición de difusión oral. Su documentación como disponible en otros climas será un gran paso para frenar de manera sostenible las enfermedades en el continente. Esto depende de la recopilación de datos originales de los custodios tradicionales de dicho conocimiento. En Nigeria, las enfermedades transmisibles, las infecciones infantiles vacunables y la desnutrición se han presentado como las principales fuentes de mortalidad infantil. Este documento, por lo tanto, informa sobre los medios tradicionales para frenar la morbilidad infantil por parte de los curanderos infantiles tradicionales en la metrópolis de Ibadan, Nigeria. El estudio se realizó en el mercado de Bode, Ibadan; la sede del mercado de hierbas en Nigeria utilizando fuentes de información primarias y secundarias. Se utilizó la técnica de bola de nieve en la selección de los veinte (20) curanderos infantiles (Elewe omo/Aremo) para el muestreo. El instrumento de prueba fue un conjunto de cuestionarios abiertos divididos en tres partes. La sección A capturó información sobre los datos biográficos de los encuestados, la sección B se centró en otra información de antecedentes, mientras que la sección C investigó las plantas y las partes utilizadas en el tratamiento de la morbilidad infantil, así como la dosis y el uso de las recetas tradicionales de curación infantil. Los datos recogidos se analizaron mediante estadística descriptiva (frecuencia, rango, media, porcentaje e histograma). Ochenta y nueve plantas locales, identificadas con sus nombres botánicos y familias, fueron documentadas junto con su(s) uso(s) medicinal(es) en el tratamiento de la morbilidad infantil. También se documentó información sobre algunas recetas, dosis y período de aplicación con su preparación, así como las partes de la planta utilizadas. Aunque todavía será necesario que los investigadores exploren otra información vital para la validación científica de las afirmaciones de los curanderos infantiles, el estudio sienta una base sostenible para la documentación de las técnicas indígenas para la prevención de la morbilidad infantil en el área de estudio.O alto custo dos cuidados de saúde médicos alopáticos e os caros produtos farmacêuticos sublinharam a importância da Medicina Tradicional Africana (ATM), cujo uso é limitado pela sua tradição de disseminação oral. Sua documentação obtida em outros climas será um grande passo na contenção sustentável de doenças no continente. Isso depende da coleta de dados originais dos guardiões tradicionais de tal conhecimento. Na Nigéria, doenças transmissíveis, infecções infantis imunizáveis ​​e desnutrição foram apresentadas como as principais fontes de mortalidade infantil. Este artigo, portanto, relata os meios tradicionais de reduzir a morbidade infantil por curandeiros infantis tradicionais na metrópole de Ibadan, Nigéria. O estudo foi realizado no mercado Bode, Ibadan; a sede do mercado de ervas na Nigéria usando fontes de informação primárias e secundárias. A técnica de bola de neve foi usada na seleção dos vinte (20) curandeiros infantis (Elewe omo/Aremo) para amostragem. O instrumento de teste foi um conjunto de questionários abertos divididos em três partes. A seção A captou informações sobre os dados biográficos dos entrevistados, a seção B concentrou-se em outras informações básicas, enquanto a seção C investigou plantas e partes usadas no tratamento de morbidade infantil, bem como dosagem e uso de receitas tradicionais de cura infantil. Os dados coletados foram analisados ​​por meio de estatística descritiva (frequência, amplitude, média, porcentagem e histograma). Oitenta e nove plantas locais, identificadas com seus nomes botânicos e famílias, foram documentadas juntamente com seu(s) uso(s) medicinal(is) no tratamento da morbidade infantil. Informações sobre algumas receitas, dosagens e período de aplicação também foram documentadas com sua preparação, bem como partes da planta utilizadas. Embora ainda haja a necessidade de os pesquisadores explorarem outras informações vitais para a validação científica das alegações dos curandeiros infantis, o estudo estabelece uma base sustentável para a documentação de técnicas indígenas para prevenção de morbidade infantil na área de estudo