Impacts of land use cover change, cropland expansion and climate change on the potential of yield and production in Ethiopia, Gambella Region

The Ethiopian Constitution asserts state ownership of land. There are no private property rights in land – it is the common property of the people of Ethiopia; however, the state may allocate small plots of land to farmers. Since the 1990s, the government has formulated a long-term economic development strategy called Agriculture Development Led Industrialization (ADLI), which is its overarching policy response to Ethiopia’s food security and agricultural productivity challenge. The strategy focuses primarily on the expansion of large-scale commercial farms and improved productivity in smallholdings. The Ethiopian government identified Gambella region as one of the regions in Ethiopia suitable for agricultural investments, and classified most parts of the area as under-utilized, having a huge potential for agriculture production. However, the unintegrated plan on large-scale land acquisition has caused tremendous environmental devastation in the region, including deforestation, biodiversity depletion, and the draining of wetlands. There are several issues that need to be addressed in depth for a future, sustainable development. This thesis, however, will focus mainly on three aspects: (1) examining the rate, extent and distribution of various land-use land-cover changes (LULCC) in Gambella Regional State and looking at the expansion of farmland and different farming intensities in the region; (2) estimating the magnitude and extent of the intensification potential of the key Gambella cereal crops (maize and sorghum) and seeking to identify potential cropland expansion areas in the region; and (3) investigating the impacts of future climate change on potential crop yields, with maize as an exemplar, under climate change scenarios in Gambella, Ethiopia. 1) In the last three decades (1987–2017), the rate, extent and distribution of various LULCC in Gambella has depended on three main factors: resettlement, population growth and increasing agricultural land pressure. All three factors contribute to LULCC in the region. An LULCC analysis was conducted, based on Landsat 5 and Sentinel 2A satellite images and fieldwork. The results show that farmland decreased by 26km2 from 1987–2000; however, during the last two decades, agricultural land area increased by 599km2, mainly at the cost of tropical grasslands and forests. The results also show that tropical grasslands declined by 17.76% from 1987–2017. Gambella National Park, which is the nation’s largest national park and ecosystem, was also affected by cropland expansion. 2) Over the past few decades, population growth has aggravated rapid agricultural land expansion and intensification in the region. As a result, the Ethiopian government has used agricultural intensification and cropland expansion as the key policies to increase food production in Ethiopia. Although Gambella is one of the regions in Ethiopia that is highly suitable for agriculture, the local people still face food shortages. Thus, to understand the potential food production of the region, the biophysical process-based model PROMET (Process of Radiation Mass and Energy Transfer) was run for the Gambella region on both the actual and all potentially suitable cropland for six selected scenarios (different degrees of intensification, ranging from low-input rainfed to high-input irrigated agriculture and degrees of expansion, considering the best 30% or 50% of land to be utilized for expansion) for the period 1997–2017, with a spatial raster grid of 30 arc seconds (approx. 940 × 940m) resolution,to provide information on potential crop yields. Land-use scenarios of agricultural intensification and expansion results reveal that Gambella could serve as a bread basket for the entire country, which could improve national food production. The potential calorie production in the potential area of the region by far exceeds the current and possible future caloric requirements of Gambella’s population. For instance, for the top 50% expansion scenario, calorie production increased by +428% for the low input scenario and by +1,092% for the high-input scenario, compared to the reference calorie crop production of the region. By assuming a daily diet of 2,200 kcal/cap/day, Gambella region’s calorie production in high-input scenarios could nourish up to 21 million people, thus improving national food production. 3) Unintegrated large-scale agricultural investment, inappropriate cropland expansion, poor intensification and changing climate conditions have caused tremendous impacts on agricultural production. In the region, temperature increase, changing soil water availability and atmospheric CO2 concentration have different effects on the simulated yield potential, and the results demonstrate that the dominance of heat response under future climate conditions is contributing to 85% of changes in total yields. For the Gambella region, on today’s cropland and to the best (in terms of highest potential yields) 50% expansion area, under rainfed and irrigated conditions, climate change impacts on yields until 2100 for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 from a climate model ensemble show that rainfed yields will decrease by 15% and 14% respectively for RCPs 2.6 and 4.5, and that yields will decrease by up to 32% under RCP 8.5. Irrigated maize yield decreases by 4.3%, 23.0% and 44.5% under RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, for same period. While higher temperature determines the phenological progress of crops and decreases the growing period of maize by up to 23 days under rainfed agriculture, temperature stress also reduces the rate of photosynthesis. We show that temperature stress is mainly responsible for yield reduction under future climate conditions in the Gambella region. Therefore, new varieties with higher growing degree days are primarily required for the region in order to adapt to future climate conditions. To sum up, the thesis shows the intricacies between LULCC, potential yield production and future impact of climate change on the potential food production in the region. Gambella region is still far away from a terminal stage of human interference. This opens up the chances to develop and implement policies to ensure the sustainable future agriculture development of the region

Impacts of land use cover change, cropland expansion and climate change on the potential of yield and production in Ethiopia, Gambella Region

The Ethiopian Constitution asserts state ownership of land. There are no private property rights in land – it is the common property of the people of Ethiopia; however, the state may allocate small plots of land to farmers. Since the 1990s, the government has formulated a long-term economic development strategy called Agriculture Development Led Industrialization (ADLI), which is its overarching policy response to Ethiopia’s food security and agricultural productivity challenge. The strategy focuses primarily on the expansion of large-scale commercial farms and improved productivity in smallholdings. The Ethiopian government identified Gambella region as one of the regions in Ethiopia suitable for agricultural investments, and classified most parts of the area as under-utilized, having a huge potential for agriculture production. However, the unintegrated plan on large-scale land acquisition has caused tremendous environmental devastation in the region, including deforestation, biodiversity depletion, and the draining of wetlands. There are several issues that need to be addressed in depth for a future, sustainable development. This thesis, however, will focus mainly on three aspects: (1) examining the rate, extent and distribution of various land-use land-cover changes (LULCC) in Gambella Regional State and looking at the expansion of farmland and different farming intensities in the region; (2) estimating the magnitude and extent of the intensification potential of the key Gambella cereal crops (maize and sorghum) and seeking to identify potential cropland expansion areas in the region; and (3) investigating the impacts of future climate change on potential crop yields, with maize as an exemplar, under climate change scenarios in Gambella, Ethiopia. 1) In the last three decades (1987–2017), the rate, extent and distribution of various LULCC in Gambella has depended on three main factors: resettlement, population growth and increasing agricultural land pressure. All three factors contribute to LULCC in the region. An LULCC analysis was conducted, based on Landsat 5 and Sentinel 2A satellite images and fieldwork. The results show that farmland decreased by 26km2 from 1987–2000; however, during the last two decades, agricultural land area increased by 599km2, mainly at the cost of tropical grasslands and forests. The results also show that tropical grasslands declined by 17.76% from 1987–2017. Gambella National Park, which is the nation’s largest national park and ecosystem, was also affected by cropland expansion. 2) Over the past few decades, population growth has aggravated rapid agricultural land expansion and intensification in the region. As a result, the Ethiopian government has used agricultural intensification and cropland expansion as the key policies to increase food production in Ethiopia. Although Gambella is one of the regions in Ethiopia that is highly suitable for agriculture, the local people still face food shortages. Thus, to understand the potential food production of the region, the biophysical process-based model PROMET (Process of Radiation Mass and Energy Transfer) was run for the Gambella region on both the actual and all potentially suitable cropland for six selected scenarios (different degrees of intensification, ranging from low-input rainfed to high-input irrigated agriculture and degrees of expansion, considering the best 30% or 50% of land to be utilized for expansion) for the period 1997–2017, with a spatial raster grid of 30 arc seconds (approx. 940 × 940m) resolution,to provide information on potential crop yields. Land-use scenarios of agricultural intensification and expansion results reveal that Gambella could serve as a bread basket for the entire country, which could improve national food production. The potential calorie production in the potential area of the region by far exceeds the current and possible future caloric requirements of Gambella’s population. For instance, for the top 50% expansion scenario, calorie production increased by +428% for the low input scenario and by +1,092% for the high-input scenario, compared to the reference calorie crop production of the region. By assuming a daily diet of 2,200 kcal/cap/day, Gambella region’s calorie production in high-input scenarios could nourish up to 21 million people, thus improving national food production. 3) Unintegrated large-scale agricultural investment, inappropriate cropland expansion, poor intensification and changing climate conditions have caused tremendous impacts on agricultural production. In the region, temperature increase, changing soil water availability and atmospheric CO2 concentration have different effects on the simulated yield potential, and the results demonstrate that the dominance of heat response under future climate conditions is contributing to 85% of changes in total yields. For the Gambella region, on today’s cropland and to the best (in terms of highest potential yields) 50% expansion area, under rainfed and irrigated conditions, climate change impacts on yields until 2100 for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 from a climate model ensemble show that rainfed yields will decrease by 15% and 14% respectively for RCPs 2.6 and 4.5, and that yields will decrease by up to 32% under RCP 8.5. Irrigated maize yield decreases by 4.3%, 23.0% and 44.5% under RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, for same period. While higher temperature determines the phenological progress of crops and decreases the growing period of maize by up to 23 days under rainfed agriculture, temperature stress also reduces the rate of photosynthesis. We show that temperature stress is mainly responsible for yield reduction under future climate conditions in the Gambella region. Therefore, new varieties with higher growing degree days are primarily required for the region in order to adapt to future climate conditions. To sum up, the thesis shows the intricacies between LULCC, potential yield production and future impact of climate change on the potential food production in the region. Gambella region is still far away from a terminal stage of human interference. This opens up the chances to develop and implement policies to ensure the sustainable future agriculture development of the region

A study of the anti-inflammatory, anti-microbial and immunomodulatory properties of thalidomide in leprosy

During the course of their disease, leprosy patients may experience two types of inflammatory reactions- erythema nodosum leprosum (ENL) or reversal reaction (RR). Thalidomide is effective treatment for ENL, but not for RR. Using concentrations of thalidomide similar to that achieved in the treatment of ENL, we investigated thalidomide’s effect on reactions, viability of M. leprae, and integrity of plasma membranes. Cells from patients with and without RR were stimulated with M. leprae (AFB), a cytosol fraction of M. leprae (MLSA) or DHAR (DHAR) antigen, and the effect of thalidomide on lymphocyte proliferation, expression of TNF-a mRNA and synthesis of TNF-a was investigated. Thalidomide enhanced MLSA and DHAR induced proliferation of cells from RR patients. The expression of TNF-a mRNA was variable, but thalidomide generally suppressed the synthesis of TNF-a. In a sub-set of RR patients, thalidomide enhanced AFB-induced cell proliferation, and the expression of TNF-a mRNA and TNF-a. ENL has been described as a consequence of M. leprae antigens released from macrophages binding antibody and inducing inflammation. Thalidomide did not affect the viability of M. leprae residing in IFN-g/LPS activated mouse macrophages, nor did it suppress TNF-a or nitrite. Drugs may be anti-inflammatory by stabilizing cell membranes. Thalidomide failed to protect the plasma membrane of neutrophils and THP-1 cells from osmotic lysis. Thalidomide stabilized the membrane of erythrocytes from plasma free blood, but not from whole blood. In vivo, the stability of erythrocytes membranes from subjects after ingestion of thalidomide was not affected. In conclusion, thalidomide did not alter the viability of M. leprae, nor the integrity of the plasma membrane of inflammatory cells. It could enhance or suppress M. leprae antigen-induced synthesis of TNF-a. Interestingly, in 15 of 75 RR patients cells stimulated with AFB, thalidomide acted as a co-stimulant enhancing cell proliferation, synthesis of mRNA for TNF-a and TNF-a. Thalidomide’s enhancing effect on TNF-a in RR appears to be dependent on the stimulant and IL-2 signaling. As the inflammation in RR is associated with the emergence of antigen-reactive T-cells and TNF-a, we speculate that the use of thalidomide in the treatment of RR may exacerbate the reactio

Eastern Nile Basin Water System Simulation Using Hec-ResSim Model

Eastern Nile Basin water resource related issues are complex which include water allocation, water simulation, reservoir operation and more. Addressing issues requires specialized tools for this reason the Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office developed a set of models under the Eastern Nile Planning Model project. A public domain model is used for this study to simulate the water system of the basin using Hec-ResSim Model. Four separate Hec-ResSim models has been developed for Abbay –Blue Nile –Main Nile, Tekeze-Setit-Atbara, Baro-Akobo-Sobat Sub basins and integrating these into unified model for the whole Eastern Nile Basin. Each of the four models are calibrated to historical conditions and configured to a baseline representing the current infrastructure and known management practices. The model calibration is done for the period 1956 to 1990. The model performance is checked using Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency test which gives an accuracy of 0.85 and more for most of the key stations. Investment studies undertaken in the basin along with different selective development scenarios including proposed dams, irrigation schemes and cascade options for each sub basin have been simulated for the period of 1956 to 2002. The Hec-ResSim model advance features in operating goals definition like tandem operation, downstream control operation and multi-reservoir system constraints has been used for this study in assessing the effect of cascade of dams on Blue Nile and combine operation rule of Rosereies and Sennar Dam. The effect of Grand Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia on downstream users has been analyzed for different scenarios which include the effect during filling time for different hydrological traces. Water abstraction for proposed large scheme irrigation demand is also another scenario which has been simulated in the model. This study gives insight on the Eastern Nile Basin with different development options and comparing them with existing condition

DEVELOPING NEW APPROACHES TO THE PRESERVATION AND SHARING OF AFRICA’S PRINTED HERITAGE: THE ERITREAN CASE.

The project that we have been working in the last two years is the case of a dispersed collection and the attempt to virtually recreate/ reassemble it. The project was financed by the European Union (EU) with the granting of a Marie Curie fellowship and implemented in cooperation with the Research and Documentation Centre of Asmara and the University of Pavia (Italy) in the period 2009-2011

Explorations in Ethiopian Linguistics: complex predicates, finiteness and interrogativity

Explorations in Ethiopian Linguistics brings together twelve contributions on linguistic problems at the interface of morphosyntax and semantics/pragmatics in Semitic, Cushitic and Omotic languages of Ethiopia. The first section of the volume consists of two articles on interrogativity in Amharic and Baskeet. Their main concern is the morphosyntax and use of yes/no and content questions, and the morphology of interrogative pronouns. The second section assembles four chapters dealing with complex predicates in Amharic, Koorete, Zargulla and Xamtanga. They point out the semantic/pragmatic differences between complex predicates and their monoverbal counterparts, the morphosyntactic properties of the component verbs, and the differences between complex predicates and multi-clausal constructions. The six contributions of the third section are dedicated to issues of finiteness in Libido and various Ethiosemitic languages including Amharic, Gəʿəz, Gurage languages and Tigrinya. The studies show that a high degree of linguistic variability occurs in finiteness marking in these languages. In discussing verb forms that are neither fully finite nor fully infinite they provide further support for the hypothesis that finiteness should be considered a relational - scalar rather than an absolute - binary category. Most articles are based on presentations made at the 18th International Conference of Ethiopian Studies held from 29 October until 2 November 2012 in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia, and, thus, reflect recent research trends in the description of Ethiopian languages

Study on street children in four selected towns of Ethiopia

The child is the most precious asset and the focal point of development for any country. However, unless children are brought up in a stimulating and conducive environment getting the best possible care and protection, their physical, mental, emotional and social development is susceptible to permanent damage. Ethiopia, being one of the least developed countries of the world due to interrelated and complex socio-economic factors including man-made and natural calamities, a large portion of our population - especially children - are victimized by social evils like famine, disease, poverty, mass displacement, lack of education and family instability. Owing to the fact that children are the most vulnerable group among the whole society and also because they constitute half of the population it is evident that a considerable number of Ethiopian children are living under difficult circumstances. Therefore, as in a number of other third world countries there are many poor, displaced, unaccompanied and orphaned children in our country. A considerable proportion of these children work on the street with some even totally living on the street without any adult care and protection. These children are forced to the streets in their tight for survival. They supplement their parents meagre income or support themselves with the small incomes they earn doing menial jobs. In doing this, street children face the danger of getting into accidents and violence, they get exploited and abused, many are forced to drop out of school or never get the chance to be enroled at all and some drift into begging or petty crime. This study is undertaken mainly for updating the findings of previous studies, monitoring changing trends, examining new facts of the problem and getting a better understanding of the phenomenon in the country by covering at least some of the major centres where the problem is acute. Thus, the outcome of this research can be useful in the formation of the social welfare programme of the country. Finally, in recognition of the urgency of the problem and the limited resources available, the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs expresses appreciation to all agencies engaged in the rehabilitation of street children and prevention of the problem. The Ministry also calls for more co-operation and support between concerned governmental and non-governmental organizations in their efforts for improving the situation of street children and in curbing the overwhelming nature of the problem

Explorations in Ethiopian Linguistics: complex predicates, finiteness and interrogativity

Explorations in Ethiopian Linguistics brings together twelve contributions on linguistic problems at the interface of morphosyntax and semantics/pragmatics in Semitic, Cushitic and Omotic languages of Ethiopia. The first section of the volume consists of two articles on interrogativity in Amharic and Baskeet. Their main concern is the morphosyntax and use of yes/no and content questions, and the morphology of interrogative pronouns. The second section assembles four chapters dealing with complex predicates in Amharic, Koorete, Zargulla and Xamtanga. They point out the semantic/pragmatic differences between complex predicates and their monoverbal counterparts, the morphosyntactic properties of the component verbs, and the differences between complex predicates and multi-clausal constructions. The six contributions of the third section are dedicated to issues of finiteness in Libido and various Ethiosemitic languages including Amharic, Gəʿəz, Gurage languages and Tigrinya. The studies show that a high degree of linguistic variability occurs in finiteness marking in these languages. In discussing verb forms that are neither fully finite nor fully infinite they provide further support for the hypothesis that finiteness should be considered a relational - scalar rather than an absolute - binary category. Most articles are based on presentations made at the 18th International Conference of Ethiopian Studies held from 29 October until 2 November 2012 in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia, and, thus, reflect recent research trends in the description of Ethiopian languages