Mathematical Model of Plasmid-Mediated Resistance to Ceftiofur in Commensal Enteric Escherichia coli of Cattle

Antimicrobial use in food animals may contribute to antimicrobial resistance in bacteria of animals and humans. Commensal bacteria of animal intestine may serve as a reservoir of resistance-genes. To understand the dynamics of plasmid-mediated resistance to cephalosporin ceftiofur in enteric commensals of cattle, we developed a deterministic mathematical model of the dynamics of ceftiofur-sensitive and resistant commensal enteric Escherichia coli (E. coli) in the absence of and during parenteral therapy with ceftiofur. The most common treatment scenarios including those using a sustained-release drug formulation were simulated; the model outputs were in agreement with the available experimental data. The model indicated that a low but stable fraction of resistant enteric E. coli could persist in the absence of immediate ceftiofur pressure, being sustained by horizontal and vertical transfers of plasmids carrying resistance-genes, and ingestion of resistant E. coli. During parenteral therapy with ceftiofur, resistant enteric E. coli expanded in absolute number and relative frequency. This expansion was most influenced by parameters of antimicrobial action of ceftiofur against E. coli. After treatment (>5 weeks from start of therapy) the fraction of ceftiofur-resistant cells among enteric E. coli, similar to that in the absence of treatment, was most influenced by the parameters of ecology of enteric E. coli, such as the frequency of transfer of plasmids carrying resistance-genes, the rate of replacement of enteric E. coli by ingested E. coli, and the frequency of ceftiofur resistance in the latter

Severe Influenza in 33 US Hospitals, 2013–2014: Complications and Risk Factors for Death in 507 Patients

BackgroundInfluenza A (H1N1) pdm09 became the predominant circulating strain in the United States during the 2013-2014 influenza season. Little is known about the epidemiology of severe influenza during this season.MethodsA retrospective cohort study of severely ill patients with influenza infection in intensive care units in 33 US hospitals from September 1, 2013, through April 1, 2014, was conducted to determine risk factors for mortality present on intensive care unit admission and to describe patient characteristics, spectrum of disease, management, and outcomes.ResultsA total of 444 adults and 63 children were admitted to an intensive care unit in a study hospital; 93 adults (20.9%) and 4 children (6.3%) died. By logistic regression analysis, the following factors were significantly associated with mortality among adult patients: older age (>65 years, odds ratio, 3.1 [95% CI, 1.4-6.9], P=.006 and 50-64 years, 2.5 [1.3-4.9], P=.007; reference age 18-49 years), male sex (1.9 [1.1-3.3], P=.031), history of malignant tumor with chemotherapy administered within the prior 6 months (12.1 [3.9-37.0], P<.001), and a higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (for each increase by 1 in score, 1.3 [1.2-1.4], P<.001).ConclusionRisk factors for death among US patients with severe influenza during the 2013-2014 season, when influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 was the predominant circulating strain type, shifted in the first postpandemic season in which it predominated toward those of a more typical epidemic influenza season