Against Defaultism and Towards Localism in the Contingency/Inevitability Conversation: Or, Why We Should Shut up About Putting-Up

Philosophers and historians of science have for some time now debated whether the results of current science are ‘contingent’ or ‘inevitable’. Scholars have noted that inevitabilism often enjoys the status of a presumptive default position. Consequently, contingentists are, from the outset, lumbered with the burden of proof. This is evident in the case of the inevitabilist demand that the contingentist “put up or shut up” (PUSU). This paper adds to the existing case which says that inevitabilism’s default-status is unjustified. However, whilst some have suggested that contingentism should replace inevitabilism as the default position, I argue that the contingency/inevitability (C/I) conversation should proceed sans default. This move is motivated largely by my claim that the C/I issue is best conceived as a ‘local’, rather than a global or universal one. The main problem with taking inevitabilism or contingentism as the default is the globalist nature of such a tack. Whilst localism is arguably an emergent reality of the growing C/I literature, its implications have not been fully realised. I suggest that fully and explicitly embracing localism, including the closely related move of doing away with defaults, represents the most promising way forward for the C/I conversation. In addition, I will show how these moves entail that we stop worrying about the inevitabilist PUSU demand, or more bluntly, that we shut up about putting-up

Automated Functions: Their Potential for Impact Upon Maritime Sociotechnical Systems

The shipping industry is evolving towards an unknown and unpredictable future. There is speculation that in the next two decades the maritime industry will witness changes far exceeding those experienced over the past 100 years. The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI), big data, automation and their impacts upon fully autonomous ships have the potential to transform the maritime industry. While change is inevitable in the maritime domain, automated solutions do not guarantee navigational safety, efficiency or improved seaway traffic management. Such dramatic change also calls for a more systematic approach to designing, evaluating and adopting new solutions into a system. Although intended to support operator decision-making needs and reduce operator workload, the outcomes might create unforeseen changes throughout other aspects of the maritime sociotechnical system. In the maritime industry, the human is seldom put first in technology design which paradoxically introduces human-automation challenges related to technology acceptance, use, trust, reliance and risk. The co-existence and challenges of humans and automation, as it pertains to navigation and navigational assistance, is explored throughout this licentiate.\ua0This thesis considers the Sea Traffic Management (STM) Validation Project \ua0as the context to examine low-level automation functions intended to enhance operator (both Navigators and Vessel Traffic Service Operators) navigational safety and efficiency. The STM functions are designed to improve information sharing between ships and from ship to shore such as: route sharing, enhanced monitoring, and route crosschecking. The licentiate is built on two different data collection efforts during 2017-2018 within the STM Validation project. The functions were tested on two user groups: Bridge Officers and Vessel Traffic Service Operators. All testing was completed in high-fidelity bridge simulators using traffic scenarios developed by subject matter experts.The aim of this licentiate is to study the impact of low levels of automation on operator behavior, and to explore the broader impact upon the maritime sociotechnical system. A mixed-method approach was selected to address these questions and included the following: observations, questionnaires, numerical assessment of ship behavior, and post-simulation debrief group sessions. To analyze and discuss the data, grounded theory, subject matter expert consultation, and descriptive statistics were used. The results point towards a disruption in current working practices for both ship and shore operators, and an uncertainty about the overall impact of low-level automation on operator behaviour. Using a sociotechnical systems approach, gaps have been identified related to new technology testing and implementation. These gaps relate to the overall preparedness of the shipping industry to manage the evolution towards smarter ships. The findings discussed in this licentiate aim to promote further discussions about a quickly evolving industry concerning automation integration in shipping and the potential impact on human performance in safety critical operations

Towards an understanding of the consequences of technology-driven decision support for maritime navigation

The maritime industry is undergoing a transformation driven by digitalization and connectivity. There is speculation that in the next two decades the maritime industry will witness changes far exceeding those experienced over the past 100 years. While change is inevitable in the maritime domain, technological developments do not guarantee navigational safety, efficiency, or improved seaway traffic management. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has adopted the Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) concept to define autonomy on a scale from Degrees 1 through 4.\ua0 Investigations into the impact of MASS on various aspects of the maritime sociotechnical system is currently ongoing by academic and industry stakeholders. However, the early adoption of MASS (Degree 1), which is classified as a crewed ship with decision support, remains largely unexplored. Decision support systems are intended to support operator decision-making and improve operator performance. In practice they can cause unintended changes throughout other elements of the maritime sociotechnical system. In the maritime industry, the human is seldom put first in technology design which paradoxically introduces human-automation challenges related to technology acceptance, use, trust, reliance, and risk. The co-existence of humans and automation, as it pertains to navigation and navigational assistance, is explored throughout this thesis. The aims of this thesis are (1) to understand how decision support will impact navigation and navigational assistance from the operator’s perspective and (2) to explore a framework to help reduce the gaps between the design and use of decision support technologies. This thesis advocates for a human-centric approach to automation design and development while exploring the broader impacts upon the maritime sociotechnical system. This work considers three different projects and four individual data collection efforts during 2017-2022. This research took place in Gothenburg, Sweden, and Warsash, UK and includes data from 65 Bridge Officers (navigators) and 16 Vessel Traffic Service (VTS) operators. Two testbeds were used to conduct the research in several full mission bridge simulators, and a virtual reality environment. A mixed methods approach, with a heavier focus on qualitative data, was adopted to understand the research problem. Methodological tools included literature reviews, observations, questionnaires, ship maneuvering data, collective interviews, think-aloud protocol, and consultation with subject matter experts. The data analysis included thematic analysis, subject matter expert consultation, and descriptive statistics.\ua0The results show that operators perceive that decision support will impact their work, but not necessarily as expected. The operators’ positive and negative perceptions are discussed within the frameworks of human-automation interaction, decision-making, and systems thinking. The results point towards gaps in work as it is intended to be done and work as it is done in the user’s context. A user-driven design framework is proposed which allows for a systematic, flexible, and iterative design process capable of testing new technologies while involving all stakeholders. These results have led to the identification of several research gaps in relation to the overall preparedness of the shipping industry to manage the evolution toward smarter ships. This thesis will discuss these findings and advocate for human-centered automation within the quickly evolving maritime industry

The Ethics of Apology and the Role of an Ombuds from the Perspective of a Lawyer

Papers presented for the Center of the Study of Ethics in Society Western Michigan University, March 20, 2003

Long-term visual and microperimetry outcomes following autologous retinal pigment epithelium choroid graft for neovascular age-related macular degeneration

To describe the 2- to 4-year visual and microperimetry outcomes of autologous retinal pigment epithelium (RPE)-choroid graft in patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD).In this retrospective cohort study, 12 patients with subfoveal neovascular AMD who had undergone autologous RPE-choroid graft between August 2004 and June 2005 were reviewed. Change in visual acuity (VA), contrast sensitivity (CS), fixation stability and retinal sensitivity on microperimetry after 2-3 years and the rates of late postoperative complications were examined.Patients were followed for 26-48 months (mean, 39). Median preoperative VA (logMAR) was 0.87 but declined to 1.43 (1 year), 1.46 (2 years) and 1.38 (3 years), P = 0.001. Median CS (logCS) was 0.75 preoperatively but declined to 0.45 at 2 years. Six patients had serial microperimetry. Fixation stability declined in 1 but improved in 2 patients. All 6 had decline in retinal sensitivity over the graft during follow up. Retinal detachment did not occur after 12 months but 8 developed epiretinal membrane, 12 had cystic retinal change over the graft and 4 developed recurrent choroidal neovascularization. However, 10 grafts retained autofluorescence signal at 18-48 months of follow up.Autologous RPE-choroid graft can maintain VA, stable fixation and retinal sensitivity in some patients for over 3 years. The spatial correlation between graft autofluorescence, outer retinal structures on optical coherence tomography and retinal sensitivity are consistent with photoreceptor cell rescue. However, we caution the use of this technique as there is high complication rate and delayed loss of retinal function

Magnetospheric energy inputs into the upper atmospheres of the giant planets

International audienceWe revisit the effects of Joule heating upon the upper atmospheres of Jupiter and Saturn. We show that in addition to direct Joule heating there is an additional input of kinetic energy ? ion drag energy ? which we quantify relative to the Joule heating. We also show that fluctuations about the mean electric field, as observed in the Earth's ionosphere, may significantly increase the Joule heating itself. For physically plausible parameters these effects may increase previous estimates of the upper atmospheric energy input at Saturn from ~10 TW to ~20 TW. Keywords. Ionosphere (Electric fields and currents; Planetary ionosphere) ? Magnetospheric physics (Auroral phenomena

Thermal structure and dynamics of the Martian upper atmosphere at solar minimum from global circulation model simulations

International audienceSimulations of the Martian upper atmosphere have been produced from a self-consistent three-dimensional numerical model of the Martian thermosphere and ionosphere, called MarTIM. It covers an altitude range of 60 km to the upper thermosphere, usually at least 250 km altitude. A radiation scheme is included that allows the main sources of energy input, EUV/UV and IR absorption by CO2 and CO, to be calculated. CO2, N2 and O are treated as the major gases in MarTIM, and are mutually diffused (though neutral chemistry is ignored). The densities of other species (the minor gases), CO, Ar, O2 and NO, are based on diffusive equilibrium above the turbopause. The ionosphere is calculated from a simple photoionisation and charge exchange routine though in this paper we will only consider the thermal and dynamic structure of the neutral atmosphere at solar minimum conditions. The semi-diurnal (2,2) migrating tide, introduced at MarTIM's lower boundary, affects the dynamics up to 130 km. The Mars Climate Database (Lewis et al., 2001) can be used as a lower boundary in MarTIM. The effect of this is to increase wind speeds in the thermosphere and to produce small-scale structures throughout the thermosphere. Temperature profiles are in good agreement with Pathfinder results. Wind velocities are slightly lower compared to analysis of MGS accelerometer data (Withers, 2003). The novel step-by-step approach of adding in new features to MarTIM has resulted in further understanding of the drivers of the Martian thermosphere