Searching for the Rail Bonus

The inherent superiority of rail-based public transport options over bus-based alternatives, all other things being equal, has been stipulated in the literature and in the public policy discussion for some time. The exact strength of any such rail bonus is important to a public transport operator which has to consider the replacement of rail-based services by bus services. The public transport operator of the city of Dresden (DVB), while generally upgrading its services, has to consider this option, in particular where the continuing tram operation would require a costly rehabilitation of the tracks. The measurement of any such systematic preference for rail-based modes is difficult, as is requires either a before-and-after study of such a switch, controlled for the other relevant service attributes, e.g. frequency, speed, reliability, price, route, etc., or a study of a network, in which rail- and road-based modes offer comparable types of services, with bus services inparticular not restricted to feeder services to rail/tram lines. Both are rare for obvious reasons. A recent service change of the DVB offered the opportunity to look at the issue in detail. A series of surveys were undertaken for this purpose before and after: A one-day travel diary (including a household questionnaire)  A survey of the image of the services A between-mode stated preference exercise focusing on the choice between public transport and private motorised transport where public transport was provided by either bus or tram (7 choice situations) A within-mode stated preference exercise looking at the trade-offs between public transport modes, in particular levels of comfort, travel times and transfers (7 choice situations). The paper reports detailed results from this study addressing the differences in preferences between the waves (effects of familiarity with an alternative) from both separate and joint stated preference and stated preference/revealed preference models. The modelling so far indicates a consistent, but weak preference for the rail option through a higher value-of-time for rail usage, higher valuation of new rail vehicles in comparison to new busses, although they are partially balanced by a higher transfer penalty. &nbsp

Fatigue in long-duration travel diaries

This paper introduces a new long-duration travel diary survey undertaken in a small town and rural environment, which complements the existing urban Mobidrive survey of 1999. Policy-making is dominated by the 1-day view of the world provided by the usual diaries. Long-duration surveys can balance this by highlighting the strong intrapersonal variance in choices, modes used and other aspects of travel behaviour. They also allow us to gain an understanding of the activity space of the travellers. The new 2003 Thurgau data followed the protocol of the earlier study, but developed the set of questions further. These new questions concerned the social context of respondents as well as trip-related items, such as planning horizon of the activity, previous frequency of visits or the groups involved in the trip or activity. The descriptive and model-based analysis of the data showed that respondent fatigue is not an issue in either survey. Where significant deviations from a steady number of reported trips were found, they showed positive tendencies, i.e. learning. The skill accrued in the intensive round of contacts between respondent and interviewer is significant. Papers on travel diaries tend not to report interviewer effects, although their impacts are clearly discernable. The analysis shows that the four interviewers employed in this survey had a substantial effect on the number of reported trip

Complexity aided design: The FuturICT technological innovation paradigm

"In the next century, planet earth will don an electronic skin. It will use the Internet as a scaffold to support and transmit its sensations. This skin is already being stitched together. It consists of millions of embedded electronic measuring devices: thermostats, pressure gauges, pollution detectors, cameras, microphones, glucose sensors, EKGs, electroencephalographs. These will probe and monitor cities and endangered species, the atmosphere, our ships, highways and fleets of trucks, our conversations, our bodies-even our dreams ....What will the earth's new skin permit us to feel? How will we use its surges of sensation? For several years-maybe for a decade-there will be no central nervous system to manage this vast signaling network. Certainly there will be no central intelligence...some qualities of self-awareness will emerge once the Net is sensually enhanced. Sensuality is only one force pushing the Net toward intelligence”. These statements are quoted by an interview by Cherry Murray, Dean of the Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Sciences and Professor of Physics. It is interesting to outline the timeliness and highly predicting power of these statements. In particular, we would like to point to the relevance of the question "What will the earth's new skin permit us to feel?” to the work we are going to discuss in this paper. There are many additional compelling questions, as for example: "How can the electronic earth's skin be made more resilient?”; "How can the earth's electronic skin be improved to better satisfy the need of our society?”;"What can the science of complex systems contribute to this endeavour?” Graphical abstrac

Analysis of driver's response to real-time information in Switzerland

We present behavioral models designed to capture the response of drivers to real-time traffic information. In 2003, we have conducted a survey in Switzerland in order to collect both Revealed Preferences (RP) and Stated Preferences (SP) about choice decisions in terms of route and mode. The RP data contains socioeconomic characteristics of the individuals in our samples, their actual usage of ITS as well as their actual route and mode choice behavior. The SP data provide us with stated route and mode choices when drivers are faced with different hypothetical choice situations involving real-time information about the state of the network. First we present a Mixed Binary Logit model with panel data to analyze the drivers' decisions when traffic information is provided during their trip by the mean of Radio Data System (RDS) or variable message signs (VMS). This model is referred to en-route choice model. Second we present Nested Logit models capturing the behavior of drivers when they are aware of traffic conditions before their trip. These last models allow to predict pre-trip route choice decisions with regard to route and mode when traffic information is available. The calibrated models are subsequently included in a simulator which predicts travelers' behavior in specific scenarios (described by adjustable parameters) allowing the sensitivity analysis of the demand with regard to the variations of various parameters. In this paper, we discuss the results of the estimation process, including some comments about the Value of Travel Time Savings (VTTS) and present some scenarios developed with our simulator

Values of travel time in Europe: Review and meta-analysis

This paper reports the most extensive meta-analysis of values of time yet conducted, covering 3109 monetary valuations assembled from 389 European studies conducted between 1963 and 2011. It aims to explain how valuations vary across studies, including over time and between countries. In addition to the customary coverage of in-vehicle time in review studies, this paper covers valuations of walk time, wait time, service headway, parking space search time, departure time switching, time in congested traffic, schedule delay early and late, mean lateness and the standard deviation of travel time. Valuations are found to vary with type of time, GDP, distance, journey purpose, mode, the monetary numeraire and a number of factors related to estimation. Model output values of time compare favourably with earnings data, replicate well official recommended values obtained from major national studies, and are transferable across countries. These implied monetary values serve as very useful benchmarks against which new evidence can be assessed and the meta-model provides parameters and values for countries and contexts where there is no other such evidence

Collecting data on leisure travel: The link between leisure contacts and social interactions

The aim of a new survey project is to collect data on the link between leisure contacts and leisure activities. The paper introduces briefly into former studies that applied the methods of social network analysis in transport planning. Using these projects as starting points the methodology and background of the new project are presented in detail. This is followed by first descriptive analyses checking how representative the data are for the Swiss population. The paper finishes by giving an outlook on further work and next steps to analyze the data

Modelling contact mode and frequency of interactions with social network members using the multiple discrete–continuous extreme value model

Communication patterns are an integral component of activity patterns and the travel induced by these activities. The present study aims to understand the determinants of the communication patterns (by the modes face-to-face, phone, e-mail and SMS) between people and their social network members. The aim is for this to eventually provide further insights into travel behaviour for social and leisure purposes. A social network perspective brings value to the study and modelling of activity patterns since leisure activities are influenced not only by traditional trip measures such as time and cost but also motivated extensively by the people involved in the activity. By using a multiple discrete-continuous extreme value model (Bhat 2005), we can investigate the means of communication chosen to interact with a given social network member (multiple discrete choices) and the frequency of interaction by each mode (treated as continuous) at the same time. The model also allows us to investigate satiation effects for different modes of communication. Our findings show that in spite of people having increasingly geographically widespread networks and more diverse communication technologies, a strong underlying preference for face-to-face contact remains. In contrast with some of the existing work, we show that travel-related variables at the ego level are less important than specific social determinants which can be considered while making use of social network data

Income effects, cost damping and the value of time: theoretical properties embedded within practical travel choice models

Mackie et al. (Values of travel time savings in the UK. Report to Department for Transport. Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds & John Bates Services, Leeds and Abingdon, 2003) proposed an identity relating the value of time (VoT) for commute and leisure travel to income and travel cost, reporting the prevalence of ‘cost damping’ (i.e. the phenomenon where VoT increases as travel cost increases). This identity (or a variant thereof) has been adopted within official methods for estimating VoT in the UK, Switzerland and The Netherlands. The present paper shows that Mackie et al.’s identity: (i) implies linear preferences, not strictly convex preferences as reported by Mackie et al.; (ii) complies with homogeneity and symmetry by construction; (iii) complies with adding-up if and only if VoT is unit elastic with respect to income; (iv) complies with negativity if VoT is unit elastic or greater with respect to income; (v) violates both adding-up and negativity in the case of the 2003 UK national VoT study. We propose alternative identities which comply with adding-up and homogeneity by construction, and offer comparable fit to Mackie et al.’s identity on the UK VoT dataset. We also find that the imposition of adding-up and negativity on Mackie et al.’s identity, through appropriate constraint on model estimation, leads to an increase of around 20% in valuations from the 2003 UK dataset