A Binary Lensing Event Toward the LMC: Observations and Dark Matter Implications

The MACHO collaboration has recently analyzed 2.1 years of photometric data for about 8.5 million stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). This analysis has revealed 8 candidate microlensing events and a total microlensing optical depth of $\tau_{meas} = 2.9 +1.4/-0.9 \times 10^{-7}$. This significantly exceeds the number of events (1.1) and the microlensing optical depth predicted from known stellar populations: $\tau_{back} = 5.4\times 10^{-8}$, but it is consistent with models in which about half of the standard dark halo mass is composed of Machos of mass \sim 0.5 \msun. One of these 8 events appears to be a binary lensing event with a caustic crossing that is partially resolved which allows us to estimate the distance to the lenses. If the source star is not a short period binary star, then we show that the lens system is very likely to reside in the LMC. However, if we assume that the optical depth for LMC-LMC lensing is large enough to account for our entire lensing signal, then the binary event does not appear to be consistent with lensing of a single LMC source star by a binary residing in the LMC. Thus, while the binary lens may indeed reside in the LMC, there is no indication that most of the lenses reside in the LMC.Comment: 5 pages, 3 postscript figures included; To appear in the Proceedings of the Dark Matter '96 Conference held in Santa Monica, CA, Feb., 199

Opinion dynamics: models, extensions and external effects

Recently, social phenomena have received a lot of attention not only from social scientists, but also from physicists, mathematicians and computer scientists, in the emerging interdisciplinary field of complex system science. Opinion dynamics is one of the processes studied, since opinions are the drivers of human behaviour, and play a crucial role in many global challenges that our complex world and societies are facing: global financial crises, global pandemics, growth of cities, urbanisation and migration patterns, and last but not least important, climate change and environmental sustainability and protection. Opinion formation is a complex process affected by the interplay of different elements, including the individual predisposition, the influence of positive and negative peer interaction (social networks playing a crucial role in this respect), the information each individual is exposed to, and many others. Several models inspired from those in use in physics have been developed to encompass many of these elements, and to allow for the identification of the mechanisms involved in the opinion formation process and the understanding of their role, with the practical aim of simulating opinion formation and spreading under various conditions. These modelling schemes range from binary simple models such as the voter model, to multi-dimensional continuous approaches. Here, we provide a review of recent methods, focusing on models employing both peer interaction and external information, and emphasising the role that less studied mechanisms, such as disagreement, has in driving the opinion dynamics. [...]Comment: 42 pages, 6 figure

The MACHO Project 2nd Year LMC Microlensing Results and Dark Matter Implications

The MACHO Project is searching for galactic dark matter in the form of massive compact halo objects (Machos). Millions of stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), and Galactic bulge are photometrically monitored in an attempt to detect rare gravitational microlensing events caused by otherwise invisible Machos. Analysis of two years of photometry on 8.5 million stars in the LMC reveals 8 candidate microlensing events, far more than the $\sim1$ event expected from lensing by low-mass stars in known galactic populations. From these eight events we estimate the optical depth towards the LMC from events with 2 < \that < 200 days to be \tau_2^{200} \approx 2.9 ^{+1.4}_{-0.9} \ten{-7}. This exceeds the optical depth of 0.5\ten{-7} expected from known stars and is to be compared with an optical depth of 4.7\ten{-7} predicted for a ``standard'' halo composed entirely of Machos. The total mass in this lensing population is \approx 2^{+1.2}_{-0.7} \ten{11} \msun (within 50 kpc from the Galactic center). Event timescales yield a most probable Macho mass of 0.5^{+0.3}_{-0.2}\msun, although this value is quite model dependent.Comment: 10 pages, 6 epsf figures and style file included, 451k, also at http://wwwmacho.mcmaster.ca/Pubs/Pubs.html; To appear in the Proceedings of "Sources and Detection of Dark Matter in the Universe", Santa Monica, CA, Feb., 199

Commitment versus persuasion in the three-party constrained voter model

In the framework of the three-party constrained voter model, where voters of two radical parties (A and B) interact with "centrists" (C and Cz), we study the competition between a persuasive majority and a committed minority. In this model, A's and B's are incompatible voters that can convince centrists or be swayed by them. Here, radical voters are more persuasive than centrists, whose sub-population consists of susceptible agents C and a fraction zeta of centrist zealots Cz. Whereas C's may adopt the opinions A and B with respective rates 1+delta_A and 1+delta_B (with delta_A>=delta_B>0), Cz's are committed individuals that always remain centrists. Furthermore, A and B voters can become (susceptible) centrists C with a rate 1. The resulting competition between commitment and persuasion is studied in the mean field limit and for a finite population on a complete graph. At mean field level, there is a continuous transition from a coexistence phase when zeta= Delta_c. In a finite population of size N, demographic fluctuations lead to centrism consensus and the dynamics is characterized by the mean consensus time tau. Because of the competition between commitment and persuasion, here consensus is reached much slower (zeta=Delta_c) than in the absence of zealots (when tau\simN). In fact, when zeta<Delta_c and there is an initial minority of centrists, the mean consensus time asymptotically grows as tau\simN^{-1/2} e^{N gamma}, where gamma is determined. The dynamics is thus characterized by a metastable state where the most persuasive voters and centrists coexist when delta_A>delta_B, whereas all species coexist when delta_A=delta_B. When zeta>=Delta_c and the initial density of centrists is low, one finds tau\simln N (when N>>1). Our analytical findings are corroborated by stochastic simulations.Comment: 25 pages, 6 figures. Final version for the Journal of Statistical Physics (special issue on the "applications of statistical mechanics to social phenomena"

Security Assessment of Computer Networks Based on Attack Graphs and Security Events

Part 2: The 2014 Asian Conference on Availability, Reliability and Security, AsiaARES 2014International audienceSecurity assessment is an important task for operation of modern computer networks. The paper suggests the security assessment technique based on attack graphs which can be implemented in contemporary SIEM systems. It is based on the security metrics taxonomy and different techniques for calculation of security metrics according to the data about current events. Proposed metrics form the basis for security awareness and reflect current security situation, including development of attacks, attacks sources and targets, attackers’ characteristics. The technique suggested is demonstrated on a case study

Precision Determination of Atmospheric Extinction at Optical and Near-Infrared Wavelengths

The science goals for future ground-based all-sky surveys, such as the Dark Energy Survey, PanSTARRS, and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, require calibration of broadband photometry that is stable in time and uniform over the sky to precisions of 1% or better, and absolute calibration of color measurements that are similarly accurate. This performance will need to be achieved with measurements made from multiple images taken over the course of many years, and these surveys will observe in less than ideal conditions. This paper describes a technique to implement a new strategy to directly measure variations of atmospheric transmittance at optical wavelengths and application of these measurements to calibration of ground-based observations. This strategy makes use of measurements of the spectra of a small catalog of bright "probe" stars as they progress across the sky and back-light the atmosphere. The signatures of optical absorption by different atmospheric constituents are recognized in these spectra by their characteristic dependences on wavelength and airmass. State-of-the-art models of atmospheric radiation transport and modern codes are used to accurately compute atmospheric extinction over a wide range of observing conditions. We present results of an observing campaign that demonstrate that correction for extinction due to molecular constituents and aerosols can be done with precisions of a few millimagnitudes with this techniqu