The geopolitics of trillion US$ oil & gas rents

Physical oil and gas abundance, turned in market scarcity, do prices of oil and gas spike and cashed rents mount. For the years 1970-2020, the rents from crude oil and natural gas sales are expressed in US$-2020, revealing the magnitude and volatility of the money flows. Peak rents coincide with turmoil implying particular oil & gas exporting countries. Oil & gas geopolitics metamorphosed from conquering oil deposits to precluding oil & gas exports by ‘hostile’ nations. Such preclusions turn physical abundance in market scarcity, boosting oil & gas prices and rents (also called royalties, windfall, excess profits). Rent skimming is also a part of the 2022 Ukraine war. Climate change mitigation intensifies geopolitical efforts to curtail the exports of ‘hostile’ nations

The geopolitics of oil in a carbon-constrained world

Aviel Verbruggen and Thijs Van de Graaf posit that the dominant view of oil geopolitics as a struggle over scarce reserves is lopsided. Assuming that strict carbon limits will be imposed as a result of expected climate change, they believe oil markets will face a structural glut. The geopolitics of oil revolves around abundance-induced conflict, with rival oil producers competing to serve the shrinking oil market

Positioning nuclear power in the low-carbon electricity transition

Addressing climate change requires de-carbonizing future energy supplies in the increasingly energy dependent world. The IEA and the IPCC (2014) mention the following as low-carbon energy supply options: ‘renewable energy, nuclear power and fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage’. Positioning nuclear power in the decarbonization transition is a problematic issue and is overridden by ill-conceived axioms. Before probing the axioms, we provide an overview of five major, postwar energy-related legacies and some insight in who is engaged in nuclear activities. We check whether low-carbon nuclear power passes the full sustainability test and whether it is compatible with the unfettered deployment of variable renewable power sourced from the sun and from wind and water currents, delivers two negative answers. We show that the best approach of the sustainable energy transition was Germany’s 2011 decision to phase-out nuclear power for a fast development and full deployment of renewable power. This is the best approach of the sustainable energy transition. We offer five practical suggestions to strengthen and accelerate carbon and nuclear free transitions. They are related to institutional issues like the role of cost-benefit analysis and the mission of the International Atomic Energy Agency, to the costs of nuclear risks and catastrophes, and to the historical record of nuclear technology and business

Saving OPEC: how oil producers can counteract the global decline in demand

If oil demand peaks, the members of OPEC, whose economies hinge on export revenues from crude oil, are in trouble. But OPEC countries can pursue at least four different strategies to counteract the decline in demand—although none of them will be easy, and none guarantees success

Sustainability assessment and indicators: tools in a decision-making strategy for sustainable development

Recognizing the urgent need for sustainability, we argue that to move beyond the rhetoric and to actually realize sustainable development, it must be considered as a decision-making strategy. We demonstrate that sustainability assessment and sustainability indicators can be powerful decision-supporting tools that foster sustainable development by addressing three sustainability decision-making challenges: interpretation, information-structuring, and influence. Particularly, since the 1990s many substantial and often promising sustainability assessment and sustainability indicators efforts are made. However, better practices and a broader shared understanding are still required. We aim to contribute to that objective by adopting a theoretical perspective that frames SA and SI in the context of sustainable development as a decision-making strategy and that introduces both fields along several essential aspects in a structured and comparable manner

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY POLICY INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT “SEPIA” - Final Report

audience: researcher, professionalThe report summarizes a 3 years research program aimed at developping long term sustainable scenarios for Belgian the energy system. The research included expert participation, stakeholders assessment, quantitative modelling and fuzzy-logic analysis of the assessments. It produced three scenarios for a sustainable energy system in Belgium 2050.SEPIA Sustainable energy policy integrated assessmen

Europe’s electricity regime: restoration or thorough transition

Concerns about climate change, diminishing social acceptance of traditional fuels, and technological innovations have led several countries to pursue energy transition strategies, typically by massive diffusion of renewable electricity supplies. The German ‘Energiewende’ has been successful so far in terms of deploying renewable power, mainly by applying particular feed-in tariffs, and by bundling public, academic, industrial and political support. So far though, only few EU member states proceed with a similar transition. In March 2014 CEOs of Europe’s major energy companies publicly opposed a fast and thorough transformation of electricity supplies to become fully renewable. In April 2014 the European Commission published new state aid guidelines, generally mandating renewable energy support mechanisms (premiums, tenders) of lesser performance than regularly adjusted, specific feed-in tariffs. The new guidelines are likely to be pernicious for the fast deployment of renewable electricity supplies.In light of these challenges, this position paper highlights two implications of power sector transitions. First, the engineering-economics theory of power generation systems needs fundamental revision, mainly since a growing share of power sources no longer function on command. Second, and based on the experience in Germany, the paper sketches out a strategy for a thorough transition of the power sector, which, in the end, also entails normative judgements. Deep changes in energy systems and associated ways of living require societal consensus building based on ethical considerations