The Expanding European Union: How to Evaluate the Policy? What Prospects for Spain’s Presidency?

How should we judge the success of the EU’s enlargement policy? What can Spain expect to achieve in this field during its EU Presidency in 2010? The EU’s ‘strategy for enlargement’ is essentially reactive: not driven by a grand design on the part of the existing members, but by pressure from countries wanting to join. The criteria for evaluating the success of the policy are two-fold: (1) for the period before membership they are similar to normal criteria for foreign policy; but (2) for the period after accession they are more complex, since each expansion affects the composition and identity of the EU itself. The last round in 2004 and 2007, when the EU grew from 15 to 27 members, was a considerable success on both sets of criteria. In the current round the EU is dealing with prospective members whose situation and prospects are very different: Turkey, the countries of the Western Balkans and Iceland. The phenomenon of ‘enlargement fatigue’ should not deter the EU from pursuing its expansion in a rational way. During its EU Presidency in the first half of 2010 Spain is not expected to achieve a major breakthrough in enlargement policy, but should ensure that steady progress is made in preparations for membership by the countries concerned

Scotland and the European Union. EPC Policy Brief, 14 July 2016

Britain’s referendum on EU membership revealed a country divided; while the United Kingdom voted to leave by 52%, Scotland voted by 62% to remain in the EU, putting the question of Scottish independence back on the table. The Scottish government says that Scotland should not be taken out of the EU against the will of its people, and that a second referendum on independence is “highly likely”. Although the Scottish people voted against independence in a referendum in 2014, opinion polls currently suggest that a majority in Scotland wants another referendum, and would vote for independence. In this Policy Brief, Graham Avery looks at how the Scottish question relates to the UK’s withdrawal from the EU; what factors have changed since the Scottish people voted against independence in 2014 and what Scotland‘s chances are of remaining in the EU

Could an independent Scotland join the European Union? EPC Policy Brief, 28 May, 2014

The people of Scotland vote on 18 September 2014 in a referendum on the question "Should Scotland be an independent country?" The Scottish Government aims, if the result is 'yes', for Scotland to become independent in March 2016 and to join the main international organisations including the European Union. Would that be possible? How could Scotland join the EU? What is the link between Scotland's referendum on independence and a British referendum on EU membership

Independentism and the European Union. EPC Policy Brief, 7 May 2014

Independentism is a live issue in Europe today. In the European Union separatist parties have gained votes in Scotland, Catalonia, Flanders and elsewhere, and referendums are in prospect. In Eastern Europe Crimea’s referendum has led to an international crisis. Graham Avery, senior adviser to the EPC asks in this policy brief: What is the European Union's policy on independentism? Is the division of a member state into two states bad for the EU? And finally, how is the organisational structure of the EU relevant to independentism

Avian fauna, palaeoenvironments and palaeoecology in the late quaternary of the Western and Southern Cape, South Africa

Bibliography: pages 171-197.Avian remains in coastal archaeological samples from Eland's Bay Cave, Die Kelders Cave 1 and Nelson Bay Cave in the Cape Province, South Africa, cover the periods between 80 000 and 40 000 B.P. and 18 000 and 300 B.P. Results of modern comparative surveys indicate that beached birds provide a predictable food supply. Kolmogorov-Smirnov two-sample nonparametric tests confirmed the close resemblance between the relative proportions of seabirds in archaeological and beached assemblages and earlier assumptions that the composition of seabird samples in archaeological sites could not otherwise have been achieved. It is shown that this simple but effective practice has a history going well into the Middle Stone Age. Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests for differences between the relative proportions of skeletal elements of Cape cormorants preserved in archaeological and modern jackal accumulations provided a useful means of drawing attention to possible activity of jackals and/or domesticated dogs. Recognition that diagenesis in some earlier samples may mimic the characteristics of modern jackal samples has established the need to extend the comparison of skeletal elements to additional species and to study the relative durability of avian skeletal elements. Similar comparison with the proportions of modern mammalian and avian predator prey species and size (mass) categories provided no indication that black or martial eagles might have contributed to the samples. Similarly, present knowledge of Cape eagle owls argues against their being likely inhabitants of caves suitable for occupation by people. It is concluded that people were the primary accumulators of the assemblages studied and that the role of small food items in prehistoric subsistence can be addressed with greater confidence. Correspondence analysis was used to determine the existence of seasonality in the modern beached seabird samples. The profiles of the archaeological samples are plotted in relation to months in which they were most likely to have been collected. Seasonal evidence from species not subjected to the correspondence analysis supported these results. The results obtained closely supported the hypothesis for seasonal exploitation of the coast. It was also possible to indicate that visits were probably of short duration and that their timing varied. Exploitation of seabirds did not coincide with the period of maximum availability of beached birds. Comparison of the avian evidence with that from seals, Cape dune mole rats and steenbok/grysbok suggested that small food items comprised part of a seasonal strategy that made maximum use of a range of seasonal resources. Evidence for significant local environmental change in addition to, and in support of, existing information has been obtained. Fluctuations in marine, freshwater and terrestrial birds at Eland's Bay Cave have been related to evidence for changes in terminal Pleistocene and Holocene sea levels and the position of the coast, and in the morphology of Verlorenvlei. At Die Kelders Cave 1 between 80 000 and 40 000 B.P., previously drier conditions were ameliorating and mixed scrub and grass and freshwater existed on the coastal foreland in the vicinity of the cave. Fluctuations in frequencies of seabirds indicate that the sea level rose slightly and then receded during the period of deposition. At Nelson Bay Cave samples indicate the approach of the coast after the Last Glacial Maximum, the disappearance of grassland and its replacement by scrub and bush as significant elements of the vegetation. Freshwater birds did not respond as expected, however, indicating that their interpretation at Nelson Bay Cave is complex and not consistent with evidence for wetter or drier conditions. A possible link has been shown to exist between fluctuations of albatrosses, petrels and shearwaters at Nelson Bay Cave and the intensity of wind patterns which are related to oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Further investigation should establish whether seabirds would provide an index of climatic conditions without support from other sources

Pathologies in the Early Pliocene phocid seals from Langebaanweg, South Africa

Abundant vertebrate fossils have been recorded from the Early Pliocene locality, Langebaanweg, South Africa. This study documents the pathologies evident in the 5 million-year-old fossil phocid seal assemblage. Careful anatomical assessment of the remains revealed that 0.73% showed evidence of disease and/or trauma. The majority of the ailments were forms of osteoarthritis, although periodontitis and osteomyelitis were also evident. Some bones also showed healed fractures, suggesting that the individuals survived the traumatic event. Two cases of dental pathologies were also noted

Virtual Data in CMS Analysis

The use of virtual data for enhancing the collaboration between large groups of scientists is explored in several ways: - by defining ``virtual'' parameter spaces which can be searched and shared in an organized way by a collaboration of scientists in the course of their analysis; - by providing a mechanism to log the provenance of results and the ability to trace them back to the various stages in the analysis of real or simulated data; - by creating ``check points'' in the course of an analysis to permit collaborators to explore their own analysis branches by refining selections, improving the signal to background ratio, varying the estimation of parameters, etc.; - by facilitating the audit of an analysis and the reproduction of its results by a different group, or in a peer review context. We describe a prototype for the analysis of data from the CMS experiment based on the virtual data system Chimera and the object-oriented data analysis framework ROOT. The Chimera system is used to chain together several steps in the analysis process including the Monte Carlo generation of data, the simulation of detector response, the reconstruction of physics objects and their subsequent analysis, histogramming and visualization using the ROOT framework.Comment: Talk from the 2003 Computing in High Energy and Nuclear Physics (CHEP03), La Jolla, Ca, USA, March 2003, 9 pages, LaTeX, 7 eps figures. PSN TUAT010. V2 - references adde

Early, intensive marine resource exploitation by Middle Stone Age humans at Ysterfontein 1 rockshelter, South Africa

Modern human behavioral innovations from the Middle Stone Age (MSA) include the earliest indicators of full coastal adaptation evidenced by shell middens, yet many MSA middens remain poorly dated. We apply ²³⁰Th/U burial dating to ostrich eggshells (OES) from Ysterfontein 1 (YFT1, Western Cape, South Africa), a stratified MSA shell midden. ²³⁰Th/U burial ages of YFT1 OES are relatively precise (median ± 2.7%), consistent with other age constraints, and preserve stratigraphic principles. Bayesian age–depth modeling indicates YFT1 was deposited between 119.9 to 113.1 thousand years ago (ka) (95% CI of model ages), and the entire 3.8 m thick midden may have accumulated within ∼2,300 y. Stable carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen isotopes of OES indicate that during occupation the local environment was dominated by C₃ vegetation and was initially significantly wetter than at present but became drier and cooler with time. Integrating archaeological evidence with OES ²³⁰Th/U ages and stable isotopes shows the following: 1) YFT1 is the oldest shell midden known, providing minimum constraints on full coastal adaptation by ∼120 ka; 2) despite rapid sea-level drop and other climatic changes during occupation, relative shellfish proportions and sizes remain similar, suggesting adaptive foraging along a changing coastline; 3) the YFT1 lithic technocomplex is similar to other west coast assemblages but distinct from potentially synchronous industries along the southern African coast, suggesting human populations were fragmented between seasonal rainfall zones; and 4) accumulation rates (up to 1.8 m/ka) are much higher than previously observed for dated, stratified MSA middens, implying more intense site occupation akin to Later Stone Age middens

Pathologies in the Early Pliocene phocid seals from Langebaanweg South Africa

Abundant vertebrate fossils have been recorded from the Early Pliocene locality, Langebaanweg, South Africa. This study documents the pathologies evident in the 5 millionyear-old fossil phocid seal assemblage. Careful anatomical assessment of the remains revealed that 0.73% showed evidence of disease and/or trauma. The majority of the ailments were forms of osteoarthritis, although periodontitis and osteomyelitis were also evident. Some bones also showed healed fractures, suggesting that the individuals survived the traumatic event. Two cases of dental pathologies were also noted