Surveillance of Complex Auction Markets: a Market Policy Analytics Approach

The dissertation consists of four essays that investigates the merits of big data-driven decision-making in the surveillance of complex auction markets. In the first essay, Avci and her co-researchers examine the aggregate-level bidding strategies and market efficiency in a multi-time tariff setting by using parametric and semi parametric methods. In the second essay, they address three key forecasting challenges; risk of selection of an inadequate forecasting method and transparency level of the market and market-specific multi-seasonality factors in a semi-transparent auction market. In the third essay, they demonstrate the effect of information feedback mechanisms on bidders’ price expectations in complex auction markets with the existence of forward contracts. They develop a research model that empirically tests the impact of bidders’ attitudes on their price expectation through their trading behavior and tested their hypotheses on real ex-ante forecasts, evaluated ex-post. In the fourth essay, they investigate characterization of bidding strategies in an oligopolistic multi-unit auction and then examine the interactions between different strategies and auction design parameters. This dissertation offers important implications to theory and practice of surveillance of complex auction markets. From the theoretical perspective, this is, to our best knowledge, the first research that systematically examines the interplay of different informational and strategic factors in oligopolistic multi-unit auction markets. From the policy perspective, Avci’s research shows that integration of big data analytics and domain-specific knowledge improves decision-making in surveillance of complex auction markets

Bidding structure, market efficiency and persistence in a multi-time tariff setting

The purpose of this study is to examine the fractal dynamics of day ahead electricity prices by using parametric and semi parametric approaches for each time zone in a multi-time tariff setting in the framework of bidding strategies, market efficiency and persistence of exogenous shocks. We find that that electricity prices have long term correlation structure for the first and third time zones indicating that market participants bid hyperbolically and not at their marginal costs, market is not weak form efficient at these hours and exogenous shocks to change the mean level of prices will have permanent effect and be effective. On the other hand, for the second time zone we find that price series does not exhibit long term memory. This finding suggests the weak form efficiency of the market in these hours and that market participants bid at their marginal costs. Furthermore this indicates that exogenous shocks will have temporary effect on electricity prices in these hours. These findings constitute an important foundation for policy makers and market participants to develop appropriate electricity price forecasting tools, market monitoring indexes and to conduct ex-ante impact assessment. © 2015 Elsevier B.V

Data for: Bidding structure, market efficiency and persistence in a multi-time tariff setting

Abstract of associated article: The purpose of this study is to examine the fractal dynamics of day ahead electricity prices by using parametric and semi parametric approaches for each time zone in a multi-time tariff setting in the framework of bidding strategies, market efficiency and persistence of exogenous shocks. We find that that electricity prices have long term correlation structure for the first and third time zones indicating that market participants bid hyperbolically and not at their marginal costs, market is not weak form efficient at these hours and exogenous shocks to change the mean level of prices will have permanent effect and be effective. On the other hand, for the second time zone we find that price series does not exhibit long term memory. This finding suggests the weak form efficiency of the market in these hours and that market participants bid at their marginal costs. Furthermore this indicates that exogenous shocks will have temporary effect on electricity prices in these hours. These findings constitute an important foundation for policy makers and market participants to develop appropriate electricity price forecasting tools, market monitoring indexes and to conduct ex-ante impact assessment

Bidding structure, market efficiency and persistence in a multi-time tariff setting

The purpose of this study is to examine the fractal dynamics of day ahead electricity prices by using parametric and semi parametric approaches for each time zone in a multi-time tariff setting in the framework of bidding strategies, market efficiency and persistence of exogenous shocks. We find that that electricity prices have long term correlation structure for the first and third time zones indicating that market participants bid hyperbolically and not at their marginal costs, market is not weak form efficient at these hours and exogenous shocks to change the mean level of prices will have permanent effect and be effective. On the other hand, for the second time zone we find that price series does not exhibit long term memory. This finding suggests the weak form efficiency of the market in these hours and that market participants bid at their marginal costs. Furthermore this indicates that exogenous shocks will have temporary effect on electricity prices in these hours. These findings constitute an important foundation for policy makers and market participants to develop appropriate electricity price forecasting tools, market monitoring indexes and to conduct ex-ante impact assessment. © 2015 Elsevier B.V